Stocks traded in a fairly tight range yesterday, slipping lower in the morning, rallying midday, and fading into the close. Most indices were basically flat on the day with the Dow ended the day with a gain of 18-points, the S&P 500 up 36 cents, the Nasdaq down 2-points, and small caps were off 0.20%.
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Oil was off for a second day but found support at the 200-day EMA after breaking above it on Tuesday. Holding above it would be very bullish but will traders allow that gap to remain open near $40 for very long?
Stocks look bullish but they have come a long way since February and I think it would be "cleaner" if we saw the gap above get filled first, along with the gaps on the SPY, the DWCPF (small caps), and the EFA, which would help take the indices off their current overbought conditions.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) hit the December 2015 high and backed off a bit as we might expect. That doesn't have to hold for long, but whenever you see a prior high tested, we usually get some kind of a pullback first before a breakout. There's another high from November just above that and it could also pose some resistance. The path of least resistance may be to fill the open gap near 206 before anything else major happens. Being in earnings season we could see some surprises that may trump conventional technical analysis, but you know how I like to obsess over open gaps and I have to believe this one will get filled quickly.
The Small Caps (S-fund) clung to the top of its rising trading channel and closed above the 200-day EMA for a second straight day. There is a very small open gap just below the 200-day EMA, which is directly in the middle of its channel.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) hit some overhead resistance but closed above its 200-day EMA for a second straight day as well. But, oh those gaps. They look so tempting.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down modestly yesterday potentially coming down to test the 20-day EMA (green) and maybe the converging support lines.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Oil was off for a second day but found support at the 200-day EMA after breaking above it on Tuesday. Holding above it would be very bullish but will traders allow that gap to remain open near $40 for very long?
Stocks look bullish but they have come a long way since February and I think it would be "cleaner" if we saw the gap above get filled first, along with the gaps on the SPY, the DWCPF (small caps), and the EFA, which would help take the indices off their current overbought conditions.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) hit the December 2015 high and backed off a bit as we might expect. That doesn't have to hold for long, but whenever you see a prior high tested, we usually get some kind of a pullback first before a breakout. There's another high from November just above that and it could also pose some resistance. The path of least resistance may be to fill the open gap near 206 before anything else major happens. Being in earnings season we could see some surprises that may trump conventional technical analysis, but you know how I like to obsess over open gaps and I have to believe this one will get filled quickly.
The Small Caps (S-fund) clung to the top of its rising trading channel and closed above the 200-day EMA for a second straight day. There is a very small open gap just below the 200-day EMA, which is directly in the middle of its channel.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) hit some overhead resistance but closed above its 200-day EMA for a second straight day as well. But, oh those gaps. They look so tempting.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down modestly yesterday potentially coming down to test the 20-day EMA (green) and maybe the converging support lines.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
