Silverbird's Account Talk

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Silverbird said:
If you read beyond the "uncertainty" in Berneke's testimony, you realize the Fed is admiitting it is running out of stuff to throw at the hole in the economy.

Darn it, should have DCA'd today, it is the perfect market pout. Of course Berneke talks AFTER lunch. The dive is far too reactionary for me to believe it's long term. May buy tommorow, since Friday's the sell day...not sure yet.
Click to expand...

Hi Sweetie Bird,
Everyone immediately (and graciously) agreed to let me take the day off to catch up on a mountain of charts -- needing completed. So am taking a real quick break.

Anyway, I looked at this last night before I left and had thought about a lot of things you've expressed.

You are 'super smart' -- I mean you're really amazing! -- the way you tie things together and have a handle on foreign Nations; rules and regulations by which so many aspects are bound; and insights like the one noted here.

You are frequently 'on' - have a very level head; maintain your cool and yet don't hesitiate to jump in on something when you feel the need.

Well, I think you're beautiful -- but I think you'd be even more attractive with Moderator under your name.

Just a thought -- please at least think about it -- before I fall on my knees and beg Tom.
 
Now we return to your regular scheduled programming:

On TSP-C, Rerun: SPX sings "Should I Stay or Should I Go" (tm The Clash)

Just can't get past 1100, can it?
 
Silverbird said:
"Should I Stay or Should I Go" (tm The Clash)

Just can't get past 1100, can it?
Click to expand...

Aye Juliet, 'tis a never-ending dliemma.

For 'tis it nobler in the mind to STAY and suffer the slings and arrows of outrangeous fortune. Or by STAYING do we take arms againt a sea of troubles - and by opposing end them and become 'perhaps' the victor.

If we LEAVE - does the agnoy disappear. To sleep perhaps and rest from the marked uncertainties. But by a sleep can we end the heartache, and the thousand natural shocks that flesh is heir to. Or as we sleep do we miss the victory the others have proclaimed.

Alas me lady, tis a toss of the coin.

Romeo
 
It's a plot - I just do not have time before noon to do anything to my accounts. This has been going on for months. I still have 1% gain from end of 2009, following my "I don't lose money but get crappy gains" streak up to now. This is my worst yet, that may be what I get for being daring, I've always made at least G.:rolleyes:
 
I'm with you SB. My tracker results do not completely reflect a couple moves I've made in real account, cause I make my decision at work, but can't record in tracker on work computer-it won't let me. so I have to make changes in tracker before or after the real moves, when I'm at home. I'm probably down about 2-3% in real account at the moment, after just barely catching up above 0% from my timing goof on the last move. argh. I knew better this time too, just didn't trust my own judgement-based on the DeMark system, we still have about 6-7 more countdown days (not necessarily consecutive) to go before should even be looking for a buy signal.
 
Nibble nibble, a couple 2 percent moves. New IFT
G 75
F 5
C 7
S 10
I 3
New Contributions 50 C, 50 S

Because of my new contributions in F of late, as of yesterday my allocations actually were G 75, F 3, C9, S12, and I1, not what my last IFT was.
 
Silver Bird,
Thank you so much for your response. In the end my heart has largely been crushed and I am having to deal with a huge emptiness in acknowledging where the USA is today and the downward spiral it is heading.

My view of the USA and the beliefs that have hugely shaped my life and much of the way I have lived over the years was wholly grounded in ’an undeniable certainty that we were the GREATEST NATION’ in essentially every way imaginable.

As a young child trying to understand the world in the 50s I wondered why there was such a ruckus between Russia and the USA and was bewildered and annoyed that the negative atmosphere it created largely consumed ‘our lives’. This bothered me because it was the opposite of how I thought life should be.

My mother told me it is a ‘Game’ between Democracy and Communism and each one lives to show the other that they are better. Democracy was a Government by the People and FOR the People. It has unlimited freedom for people to live however they wanted and pursue their own dreams. Communism was a Government with little to no freedom that controlled all people.

I tell you this because LIFE at that ’moment’ would have totally convinced everyone on Earth that Democracy was far superior and we should claim the Victory and end the conflict. My mother told me we would have to wait for many years and have to live through many future Presidents before we could really say which one is better. She told me the ’Contest’ is too NEW and I would have to wait until I had grown into an old man before we could really know the end result.

So I grew up believing I could help us win this contest and joined the Service with a devotion that was as high as could be known.. Most of my life was grounded in the certainty of what I totally believed America represented - and I totally believed that every person in America had the same opportunity and freedom.

Many things began to erode my ’American Dream World’ as the Civil Rights Movement, Women’s Liberation, and other events showed the reality of how life was for many Americans. I all the more found our interactions and Wars that went on and on for many years was largely proving to the world at large how we are the opposite of Great.

So in the end I had to boil everything down to ‘America is the Greatest’ because of the Economy. For most of my life this gave me ‘Comfort’ and a sense of ‘Victory’ but NOW even that has been shattered. I won’t bother sharing the details of how America has fallen - but we are no longer ‘Number ONE’.

The unlimited free will of Democracy and its subsequent lifestyles largely proved to be Inferior when its survival became dependant on borrowing from Communism. This pattern of uncontrolled spending, increasing parasitic programs and lifestyles, and political and corporate corruption has IN THE END proved we are NOT -Number ONE - and will likely never have the chance to be First again.

In the end I have no other choice but to abandon my investments in America and put them in Countries that have proven to be far superior. Fortunately China is not in the lead, however, Singapore will likely get a portion of the pot.

I’m undergoing a startling ’Reality Check’ and a huge transition in views I would never have remotely thought could ever turn out the way it has - the way it is today.

Thank you for listening - and for always being there no matter what.

Steady
 
Steady,

You are not alone feeling as you do exemplified by all the tons of money going into bonds. But you are simply wrong following the herd - the economy will rebound as soon as ass hole reverts back to the center. Obama is sullen because he knows real hope and change are on the horizon. The economy is just waiting for clarity. There are many good things happening in the economy hiding under the radar waiting to surface. It's never easy putting money on the line - but I'm still fully invested and staying that way. The time to go all in is when you see no hope - get off the lily pad now.
 
Birchtree said:
Steady,

You are not alone feeling as you do exemplified by all the tons of money going into bonds. But you are simply wrong following the herd - the economy will rebound as soon as ass hole reverts back to the center. Obama is sullen because he knows real hope and change are on the horizon. The economy is just waiting for clarity. There are many good things happening in the economy hiding under the radar waiting to surface. It's never easy putting money on the line - but I'm still fully invested and staying that way. The time to go all in is when you see no hope - get off the lily pad now.
Click to expand...

Birch,

In regards to the outlook of the global economy and all the more the specific strengths and weaknesses by which the Present and Future conditions are governed - the TSP remains uncertain.

The 'Bond Maret' is losing its draw and longstanding appeal. The solid and unshakeable certainty of it being 'The most guaranteed investment possible' - is NOW a myth. This is WHY a new 'Bond Market' is emerging outside of the USA.

We will have to raise the interest rates to make the Bonds attractive - which means we pay more and lose more.

I wish it were as simple as you and most seem to believe. Richard (nickname other than Rick) Wad - and the one who ruled before him and before him ... are more designed to function as a 'Scapegoat' than anything else. What we thought as kids - is simply garbage - and the conditions of our Country and Global Relationships - especially as history itself has brought it into being when one acquires 'The Crown' gives them no power to change either the specific circumstances which they stepped into - and all the more HE (or SHE) would never have the power to stop these conditions from taking a further toll.

I totally agree as far as our limited investments in the TSP - the economy is waiting for 'clarity'. At this point I am leaning towards a substantial fall and another period of hardships for the USA and am more comfortable waiting it out.

Outside of the USA - there is a strong clarity of substantial stability and growth, minimal debt, and far greater gains for now and for the years that we have left. That's how I see it.

I do hope a very strong 'Republician' control of the House and Senate and 'Leadership' based on 'reality' brings better changes in the years to come.

1985 is when Debt became the 'American Way' and many of 'us' kept stressing how this would lead to ruin. As the years went on we wondered 'How Long can We LAST'?

In the end I've decided none of this really makes any difference and it is honestly NOT my place to let my concerns regarding the USA drag me down and allow my disappointments to become a burden. It takes too much of my life and energy Birch - so all we can do is live for the day and make the most out of our own life and be the best we can. That's what I need to do for now Birch - forget yesterday and have no concern for tomorrow - but make the most out of today.
 
Yes, I know, you are not supposed to buy and hold. But I just don't have time to get IFT's done - so I end up holding anyway! So I'm putting in percentages I can live with if I miss a couple weeks of IFTS....

G 70
F 8
C 7
S 12
I 3
 
Good luck with those percentages, SB, and it really is good to see you back. Don't let that overfull In Box tip over on you! :cheesy:

Maggie
 
Silverbird,
I guess you should know that I pretty much despise 'politics' and I hope you can keep that in mind with what I'm about to address.

'Politics' is wanting to show their love and concern for the American Population and ...

...attacking China for downplaying their currency. They are 'angry' that China has been usuing their currency to their 'advantage' and the USA is getting a bit screwed over because of it.

My question to you -- trying to put US interests aside and thinking only in terms of what is the BEST and by far the most practical way to conduct business -- especially as it has proven out and for the long term...

Or think of how the USA would do it -- should it be the opposite

Do you see China down playing its currency as a very smart move?

In light of the Economic Conditions that have played out over the recent years do you see the drop in the value of their currency as brillant?

Is it wrong for them to conduct business in a manner that substantially gives them greater strength?

When the Nation that had long been #1 is borrowing more and more money -- would it not be reasonable to make them borrow more?


Would enjoy your input on this. I find the USA at fault and not China and now -- that our Debt looks hopeless -- we're blaming them.
 
[warning, opinion piece]

A drop in the dollar relative to Chinese Currency (Yuan) makes sense, as China has sole control over its currency and hasn't allowed it to more (well, it's moved a tiny bit but more or less doesn't count). Probem is the Yuan rides along, so the problem remains.

The drop in the dollar relative to other currencies is more problematic. As the "currency of last resort" (or base currency), the dollar's value does not always reflect where the U.S. economy is. We are in pretty bad shape. In the old days of consumer borrowing from one's house, lower import prices were ok. Now, the Big Loan Bird has come to roost, it no longer floats on rising real estate, and people are not buying - which means there are less jobs here - and more people are not buying. For the U.S., this is the situation, so it makes sense to try to pump up the economy with QE2 (the other way is to increase Government spending on infrastructure to create temporary jobs - not going to happen). For other countries, however, since the dollar is the base currency right now, a weak base currency screws up the entire monetary system because if the base falls out, everyone is going to hurt.
 
Silverbird said:
[warning, opinion piece]

A drop in the dollar relative to Chinese Currency (Yuan) makes sense, as China has sole control over its currency and hasn't allowed it to more (well, it's moved a tiny bit but more or less doesn't count). Probem is the Yuan rides along, so the problem remains.

The drop in the dollar relative to other currencies is more problematic. As the "currency of last resort" (or base currency), the dollar's value does not always reflect where the U.S. economy is. We are in pretty bad shape. In the old days of consumer borrowing from one's house, lower import prices were ok. Now, the Big Loan Bird has come to roost, it no longer floats on rising real estate, and people are not buying - which means there are less jobs here - and more people are not buying. For the U.S., this is the situation, so it makes sense to try to pump up the economy with QE2 (the other way is to increase Government spending on infrastructure to create temporary jobs - not going to happen). For other countries, however, since the dollar is the base currency right now, a weak base currency screws up the entire monetary system because if the base falls out, everyone is going to hurt.
Click to expand...

WOW !!!! You are so amazing !!! You really are.

Thank you so much and this was excellent -- very well put.

OK -- now considering the 'reality' of everything you've expressed so well. Does it not seem more likely that given the Global Changes taking place and all the more 'The Falling of the USA'....

...the 'Dollar' will be replaced as the 'Base currency'?
 
Not anytime soon because no country is willing to step forward. Do not get me started on gold - there are practical uses of gold which are just being artificially inflated in price at the moment. A basket of currencies is possible, but I've heard that one before - how do you figure out the percentages represented by what currencies and who gets in?

By the way, I am of the school that thinks no more QE's as they are not really effective with nearly 0 interest rates - there is a certain point where pushing the noodle just doesn't push it forward anymore. But doing nothing could also do really bad things for U.S. economic confidence, I'm not a specialist in monetary policy, and I never really "bought into" the monetary side of economic theory either.
 
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