Show-me Account Talk

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When the CPI does not include medical, housing, food or energy, (Correct me if I'm wrong) then ofcourse it's going to come out zero, what else is there!!!
 
A number of factors next week to get my head around.

  1. Investment banks and brokers reporting earnings all week.
  2. FOMC meeting/rate cut.
  3. Shortened trading (Good Friday) week and options expiration on Thursday.
  4. S&P weekly chart below 200 sma.
  5. Dow Trans still below Oscar's moving average.
  6. No sustained upside breakouts.
  7. Easier to make money shorting this market than going long.
One thing is for sure, the Fed will not let the big banks/brokers fail, but the market psychology is taking a beating.

Second, JP Morgan Chase must be in better shape than everyone else to be the lead lender in this bailout.
 

The transportation index decreased 0.7 percent in February. The index for gasoline declined 2.0 percent, accounting for about 95 percent of the overall transportation decrease. As of February, gasoline prices were 2.6 percent below their peak level recorded in May 2007. The index for new vehicles declined 0.3 percent in February. (As of February, about 84 percent of the new car sample consisted of 2008 models. The 2008 models will continue to be phased in, with adjustments for quality change, over the next several months as they replace old models at dealerships. For a report on quality changes for the 2008 vehicles represented in the Producer Price Index sample, see news release USDL-07-1787 dated November 14, 2007.) The index for used cars was virtually unchanged. During the last 12 months, new vehicle prices declined 0.8 percent, while prices for used cars and trucks rose 2.0 percent. The index for public transportation decreased 0.1 percent in February, reflecting in part a 0.3 percent decrease in the index for airline fares. (Prior to seasonal adjustment airline fares rose 1.2 percent in February and are 7.6 percent higher than in February 2007.)​

The index for apparel declined 0.3 percent in February, following
increases in each of the preceding five months. (Prior to seasonal
adjustment, apparel prices increased 1.8 percent, reflecting the
introduction of spring-summer wear.)​
 
http://www.kansascity.com/438/story/531140.html

The better-than-expected February inflation reading probably will be reversed in coming months because of the recent spike in energy prices. Crude oil hit a record high this week above $110 per barrel and gasoline pump prices jumped to a national record of $3.28.

David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York, said that he believed the economy was currently in a recession, which will help ease pressures on prices. However, he said offsetting that in part was the big decline in the value of the dollar, which is driving up the cost of imported goods.

Wyss predicted a big jump in consumer prices for March, reflecting the rebound in gasoline and other energy prices that has already occurred.
For February, energy prices posted a 0.5 percent decline. Gasoline prices fell by 2 percent, the biggest drop since last August.

Gains in food costs eased, too. They rose by 0.4 percent after a 0.7 percent jump in January.

The price of vegetables, fruit, poultry and pork declined. But the price of cereal and bakery products shot up by 1.8 percent, the largest monthly increase since January 1975. The higher costs partly reflect higher energy prices, which raise transportation costs. Also food prices have come under pressure because of the increased demand for corn in ethanol production.
 
Show-me said:
Yes, the IRS gives you until the tax deadline to invest in the 2007 IRA.

Yes, $4k each for 2007 and $5k for 2008 is the base plus if you are age 50 or older you can contribute a additional $1k. Not $1k for each year over 50.
Click to expand...

When does the TSP loan have to be paid back?

If I fund an IRA with a total of $9,000 and have already filed 2007 taxes, I would just file an ammended return, right?
 
Show-me said:
One thing is for sure, the Fed will not let the big banks/brokers fail, but the market psychology is taking a beating.
Click to expand...
Good assessment. The latter goes to Consumer Sentiment. That number came out yesterday at 10:00 am, I missed it, but got a good guess it was bad.
- All I know is for myself, I'm not buying anything not essential.
Also, I'm withdrawn to staying at home (except going to work).
Speaking of work/jobs - does helping big banks/brokers help businesses, therefore help retain jobs?
I suppose that's the theory, but thru the last 5 rate cuts we now have job numbers worse than ever! Its clear that Big Banks/Brokers just have a lack of willingness to lend! :notrust:
I think Ben's gotta have most of the same questions -whether the "rate cut theory" has been beneficial -will any amount will help?
- So, I conclude, at least save the dollar! :worried:
VR
 
There’s been quite a bit of discussion in various member’s Allocation Account talk threads about the threat of restricting members to mail only changes if a certain number of IFTs are exceeded in a given month. Like most, I scoffed at this – believing, as many did, that this would take too long to implement. Let me tell you what arrived yesterday via certified mail….

I got a letter from the Executive Director (Gregory T. Long) of TSP stating that because I had exceeded the number of trades in February, as of March 31st 2008 I will no longer be able to post trades electronically. All further trading will be done via mail. They were so kind to enclose 3 envelopes to assist me.

So you may want to rethink your strategies – you may be getting something soon if you don’t. I live in the DC area so perhaps I got my letter earlier than others. I’ll be curious to hear what happens to others. BTW, I probably made around 6 trades in February.

I won’t be sitting idly by, calls will be made and I’ll follow up with my local reps (I’ve already sent something to my Senators and Representative last month, we’ll see what happens now.

BTW, I subscribe to several different member threads so I am cross posting this message in those as well – sorry for the duplication but I think you should be aware that the threat was not idle.
 
weatherweenie said:
When does the TSP loan have to be paid back?

If I fund an IRA with a total of $9,000 and have already filed 2007 taxes, I would just file an ammended return, right?
Click to expand...

You set the time period when you fill out the online application.

If the $9k is for you, 2007 and 2008. You can only claim the $4k for 2007 and then next year claim the $5k on your 2008 return.

You can file a amended return, but I will note that if your AGI is to high it will not benefit you to file a amended return. The "saver's tax credit" is for lower income folks, like me, who's AGI filing jointly is $50k or below. Otherwise I don't know why you would go through the trouble because it would not change your income level as it is a loan and not income. Check out this link for a quick summary.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/itax/tips/20030310a1.asp
 
hessian said:
Good assessment. The latter goes to Consumer Sentiment. That number came out yesterday at 10:00 am, I missed it, but got a good guess it was bad.
- All I know is for myself, I'm not buying anything not essential.
Also, I'm withdrawn to staying at home (except going to work).
Speaking of work/jobs - does helping big banks/brokers help businesses, therefore help retain jobs?
I suppose that's the theory, but thru the last 5 rate cuts we now have job numbers worse than ever! Its clear that Big Banks/Brokers just have a lack of willingness to lend! :notrust:
I think Ben's gotta have most of the same questions -whether the "rate cut theory" has been beneficial -will any amount will help?
- So, I conclude, at least save the dollar! :worried:
VR
Click to expand...

IMO and I have heard this from other. Saving the banks and brokers is essential in stopping massive runs on other banks. It would be a total collapse of the financial system. (Remember the Great Depression) Banks would be running on banks, margin calls would go wild. Joe Sixpack would run on the banks like they did in UK on Blackrock. Business's would loose funding, lay off, go under.

We got BIG, BIG, BIG problems here and it became very clear to me this week. I don't see a upside for a long time until this works its way out. Institutional bank/brokers are just trying to survive this. They are holding on to what little capital they have, instead of lending it, in case there is a run on them.

It is a enormous GLOBAL house of cards and if the Fed lets a big player like BSC go under the ripple will be felt around the world and it will be ugly. Mind you, I think it will still be ugly but not Depression ugly. I hope.
 
Moody's Cuts WaMu Rating

By ANDREW EDWARDS
March 14, 2008 3:26 p.m.; Page B6

Moody's Investor Service cut Washington Mutual Inc.'s debt rating to one step above junk status due to the "the rapid deterioration of the residential housing sector in the first quarter."
Banks' credit ratings are very important because they affect how cheaply banks can access capital on the debt markets, which in turn affects margins on the interest they charge borrowers. WaMu's shares recently traded down $1.25 cents, or 10%, to $10.88.
The New York ratings agency said the rating could fall even further if housing losses eat up even more of Washington Mutual's capital and force even higher loan-loss provisions. WaMu in January reported a $1.87 billion net loss in the fourth quarter that was fueled by a sharp increase in the reserve for loan-related losses and a write-down on its home-loan business.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120551006505236885.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
 
Show,

If the worst case scenario you mentioned in the last paragraphs I underlined below occur, wouldn't federal employees/retirees/servicemen have better protection from loss by keeping their money in the G-Fund instead of keeping it in "cash" at a money market account at a brokerage house?

Show-me said:
IMO and I have heard this from other. Saving the banks and brokers is essential in stopping massive runs on other banks. It would be a total collapse of the financial system. (Remember the Great Depression) Banks would be running on banks, margin calls would go wild. Joe Sixpack would run on the banks like they did in UK on Blackrock. Business's would loose funding, lay off, go under.

We got BIG, BIG, BIG problems here and it became very clear to me this week. I don't see a upside for a long time until this works its way out. Institutional bank/brokers are just trying to survive this. They are holding on to what little capital they have, instead of lending it, in case there is a run on them.

It is a enormous GLOBAL house of cards and if the Fed lets a big player like BSC go under the ripple will be felt around the world and it will be ugly. Mind you, I think it will still be ugly but not Depression ugly. I hope.
Click to expand...
 
What expectation of processing time or effectuation can one reasonably expect from the moment the loan request is made to TSP.gov or the roll-over IRA is requested fron TSP.gov to be sent to the brokerage house of one's choice? I mean, do we have to wait long before we can begin trading in the accounts at the brokerage house?

Show-me said:
You set the time period when you fill out the online application.

If the $9k is for you, 2007 and 2008. You can only claim the $4k for 2007 and then next year claim the $5k on your 2008 return.

You can file a amended return, but I will note that if your AGI is to high it will not benefit you to file a amended return. The "saver's tax credit" is for lower income folks, like me, who's AGI filing jointly is $50k or below. Otherwise I don't know why you would go through the trouble because it would not change your income level as it is a loan and not income. Check out this link for a quick summary.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/itax/tips/20030310a1.asp
Click to expand...
 
Understand that is a HUGE extreme event if it was to happen. The Central Banks of the World would do everything they could to correct it. Even if it means throwing tax payer cash down a black hole like BSC.

If it gets that bad even the G fund won't be safe due to depreciation of the dollar. It then goes back to the "Five G's" - God, Guns, Groceries, Gold, and Gas.:eek::ban:
 
airlift said:
Show,

If the worst case scenario you mentioned in the last paragraphs I underlined below occur, wouldn't federal employees/retirees/servicemen have better protection from loss by keeping their money in the G-Fund instead of keeping it in "cash" at a money market account at a brokerage house?
Click to expand...

Yes, you are absolute correct. This is a very important point to think about. Folks need to check and see what their money market accounts are investing in. There was news last fall about a money market that was in trouble because it had some investments in MBS.
 
350,

Did you do a loan request or a roll-over IRA? Tia.

Did it.:D
__________________
"I do not believe the housing market is yet in a recession"-Birchtree 3/8/08
IFT petition: www.tspshareholder.org/

350zCommTech;155057]Did it.:D[/quote]
 
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