Show-me Account Talk

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I am a little concerned that the Dow TRANS has not broke the 200 dma. It is a leading indicator, sucker rally? I think it is.
 
I may be wrong, but judging from my past history of getting in too early for bounces, I am staying out for now. Seems like big moves down happen for a reason, and instantly doing a contrarian play is sometimes not the right move. I think this correction will run it's course over the next couple weeks, before another rally, but that rally will ultimately fail later this year. COULD be a bounce near 875/lower BBand, then the bounce fails at the 20 MA near 900, then we break down below the BBAND and penetrate to 810-840 range. Looking to buy 50% into the market at that time, but ONLY for a bounce.

Since the FED is draining liquidity from the market, and also offering billions of bonds, money HAS to go into those bonds and that means less money for stocks, which means someone may have to sell stocks to buy these bonds.
 
Show-me,

You made a great set of trades this week getting in Monday and out yesterday. And FRTIB says market timing doesn't work.:)
 
Good morning old friend and thank you! How are you surviving the beautiful Missouri heat and humidity? :D Personally I am getting real tired of mowing the grass every four days.:nuts: Bring on the drought!

FRTIB guys are slow and hard to train. Actually untrainable. You would think we would be on the cutting edge of any new developments instead we might get a Roth in one to two years. Go figure.

It has taken me awhile but I am getting my sea legs back. Changing the game on me took the wind out of my sail but I am retraining myself to play the long term plays.

I would say the odds of a sell off today or Monday are pretty great right now. Could bounce back for the end of the month window dressing but I will take my coins and rest easy this weekend.
 
Show-me said:
Good morning old friend and thank you! How are you surviving the beautiful Missouri heat and humidity? :D Personally I am getting real tired of mowing the grass every four days.:nuts: Bring on the drought!

FRTIB guys are slow and hard to train. Actually untrainable. You would think we would be on the cutting edge of any new developments instead we might get a Roth in one to two years. Go figure.

It has taken me awhile but I am getting my sea legs back. Changing the game on me took the wind out of my sail but I am retraining myself to play the long term plays.

I would say the odds of a sell off today or Monday are pretty great right now. Could bounce back for the end of the month window dressing but I will take my coins and rest easy this weekend.
Click to expand...


I need to mow again today. It takes me about 3 hrs to mow 2 acres. The heat has been brutal. Seems like August already.

The limited trades imposed by FRTIB has really changed my style. I just can't seem to figure this market out. There is still way to much manipulation by Uncle Sam. I am looking for the market to drop but one thing I don't have a grasp on is how much the FED has de-valued the dollar already. The printing of money may actually end up putting a floor under the S&P500. At what level is anyone's guess.
 
show me's return analysis of 3% in one week; I smoked this week on F-fund, reducing on COB monday (share prie = 12.82) BUT YOU RULE
 
The Week Ahead

Last Update: 26-Jun-09 08:17 ET



U.S. markets are closed Friday in observance of Independence Day, but there are plenty of fireworks on the Economic Calendar in the holiday-shortened week.
The highlight of the week is the employment report for June, slated for release before the market opens Thursday. While May's report had a better-than-feared headline number, the details of the report didn't foster a belief that a significant pickup in consumer spending is imminent.
Other economic reports sure to garner attention include the latest readings on consumer confidence, construction spending and the ISM Index.
Only a few companies are on the Earnings Calendar, led by General Mills (GIS).
Monday, June 29:
  • Earnings: Apollo Group (APOL), H&R Block (HRB)
  • Economic Data: None
  • Events:None
  • Conferences: None
  • Fed Speakers: None
Tuesday, June 30:
  • Earnings: Sealy (ZZ)
  • Economic Data: Consumer Confidence (June)... S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April)... Chicago PMI (June)
  • Events: U.S. Bankruptcy Court hearing to approve proposed sale of General Motors assets
  • Conferences: None
  • Fed Speakers: St. Louis Fed President Bullard on "Exit Strategies for the Federal Reserve" (12:00 ET)... Kansas City Fed President Hoenig on "Bankruptcy and Financial Crisis" (16:10 ET)... San Francisco Fed President Yellen on economic outlook (21:00 ET)
Wednesday, July 1:
  • Earnings: Constellation Brands (STZ), General Mills (GIS)
  • Economic Data: ADP Employment Change (June)... Construction Spending (May)... ISM Index (June)... Auto & Truck Sales (June)
  • Events: Weekly Crude Inventories (week ended June 27)
  • Conferences: None
  • Fed Speakers: Chicago Fed President Evans on "The Credit Crunch and Policy Actions" (11:15 ET)
Thursday, July 2:
  • Earnings: Acuity Brands (AYI)
  • Economic Data: Initial Unemployment Claims (week ended June 27)... Employment Report (June)... Factory Orders (May)
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: None
  • Fed Speakers: None
Friday, July 3: U.S. markets closed in observance of Independence Day

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20090626081739LookingAhead
 
Nasa,

No problem, this is a weekly read for me to see what is coming up. The link is below and I recommend everyone read it every weekend. I doesn't take long and it is a load of information condensed in one spot.

Good luck.
 
I'm not feeling the love on the "jobs report". Something feels funny. ADP came in hot and they are usually low compared to BLS. Looking at the charts I still don't like the Dow Trans chart, it can't break through the 200 dma.

Bee careful and nimble!
 
ALL BUSINESS: Cash is king for investors

ALL BUSINESS: Investors choose cash as an asset class, which is bad for stocks

  • By Rachel Beck, AP Business Writer
  • On Saturday July 4, 2009, 4:57 am ED
NEW YORK (AP) -- That old saying "cash is king" certainly rings true these days. Investors can't seem to get enough of it, which ultimately could be bad news for the stock market and the economy.



In the past, investors would cling to cash until the market's prospects brightened and then money would pour back into stocks. That's just what the bulls today are hoping will drive a surge on Wall Street in the months ahead.
But the shock of the financial crisis -- which have made leverage and risk-taking dirty words -- may be changing all that. Even with today's minuscule returns, cash seems to have become a sought-after asset class among investors who intend to keep it as a part of their portfolios for the long term.
Watching this play out firsthand is Jack Albin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. In sizing up the outlook, he has to balance what the past tells him about cash tending to move back into the market and the cautionary tone that he's hearing from the bank's clients .
Historical data he has crunched shows that whenever assets in money market mutual funds -- which are low-risk, highly liquid investments -- exceeded 25 percent of the market capitalization of the Standard & Poor's 500 index, stocks have rallied over the following two years.
This ratio jumped to an almost-unheard of level of more than 60 percent on March 9, almost triple the median level in the early years of this decade, for two reasons. Money market fund totals have surged 30 percent since the stock market peaked in October 2007, and by early March the S&P 500's market cap had plunged 57 percent from its high point in 2007.
Today, that ratio has narrowed to about 45 percent, primarily because of a recent rebound in stocks. There is $3.7 trillion sitting in money market mutual funds right now, and the market cap of the S&P 500 is about $8 trillion, up from a March low of $5.9 trillion.
Albin considers the 45 percent level still to be unusual -- and a potential source of fuel for further stock gains if investors choose to redeploy their low-yielding cash.
"If the stock market keeps trending higher and corporate earnings numbers progress, some investors might feel left out and decide to buy again," Albin said. "That is driven by human nature."
But there is recent evidence from some big-name investors that argues otherwise, at least on the margins. The California Public Employees' Retirement System, also known as CalPERS, announced June 15 that it had boosted the target cash exposure of its $183 billion investment portfolio from zero to 2 percent.
That helps explain why Albin is cautioning against counting on a stampede out of cash and into stocks, especially after talking to his banks' clients. They've been burned by the bear market and worry about having enough cash -- especially those who invested in things like auction-rate securities that turned out not to be as easily accessible as they thought. Since credit markets remain tight, many are also finding it harder to borrow or raise money.
So they are clinging to their cash, especially in plain-vanilla accounts like money market funds, which now yield on average only 1.3 percent, according to Bankrate.com.
Albin has started giving a presentation to clients titled "Cash is an Asset Class." He discusses how investors' experiences in 2008 called into question two underpinnings of investment management -- buy and hold and diversification. As a result, he sees many investors viewing cash as an important asset to have "in an environment where you need to protect yourself."
Albin's thinking jibes with what David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at the Canadian wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff, has been telling his clients.
Even though there is a mountain of cash on the sidelines, he says it is being deployed tactically, "seeing as demand for liquidity is running at very high rates at every level of the economy."
Rosenberg points to the record number of dividend cuts by S&P 500 companies over the last 12 months -- 1,043 of them, according to S&P. That's evidence corporations are hoarding cash so that they can fund operations, buy other companies or to ensure they can satisfy their debt refinancing needs going forward.
The end result is that stock investors are seeing their cash flow squeezed. Since 1955, the average has been 15 dividend increases for every decrease. Now, it's five increases for every six decreases, according to S&P.
Shifting investor sentiment is also reflected in the surge in the personal savings rate, which was hovering near zero in early 2008 but soared to 6.9 percent in May. That was the highest rate since 1993.
Even with the massive government stimulus program, Americans are choosing to bolster their nest eggs rather than spend. According to Rosenberg's calculations, the total stimulus from the Obama administration came to $163 billion at an annual rate in May, but consumer spending only increased at an annual rate of $25 billion.
So long as the cash just stays on the sidelines, there won't be much fuel to propel stocks and the economy forward.
Rachel Beck is the national business columnist for The Associated Press. Write to her at rbeck(at)ap.org
Click to expand...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ALL-B...html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
 
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Founding Fathers left one legacy not celebrated on Independence Day but which affects us all. It's the national debt.



The country first got into debt to help pay for the Revolutionary War. Growing ever since, the debt stands today at a staggering $11.4 trillion -- equivalent to about $37,000 for each and every American. And it's expanding by over $1 trillion a year.
The mountain of debt easily could become the next full-fledged economic crisis without firm action from Washington, economists of all stripes warn.
"Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently told Congress.
Higher taxes, or reduced federal benefits and services -- or a combination of both -- may be the inevitable consequences.
The debt is complicating efforts by President Barack Obama and Congress to cope with the worst recession in decades as stimulus and bailout spending combine with lower tax revenues to widen the gap.
Interest payments on the debt alone cost $452 billion last year -- the largest federal spending category after Medicare-Medicaid, Social Security and defense. It's quickly crowding out all other government spending. And the Treasury is finding it harder to find new lenders.
Click to expand...

Much more at link.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MOUNT...70.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
 
China officials call for displacing dollar, in time

BEIJING (Reuters) - The financial crisis has laid bare defects in the dollar-led global economy and the world should look to displace the U.S. currency, even if that will take many years, Chinese officials said in comments published on Monday.

The push for fundamental, if gradual, reform of the international financial system comes just before the Group of Eight summit in Italy, where China's willingness to question the dollar's role could fuel debate.

China holds an estimated 70 percent of its $1.95 trillion in official foreign exchange reserves in the dollar and is wary of saying anything that would undermine the value of its investments.
On Sunday, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei said the dollar would stay the world's dominant currency for "many years to come" and that talk of creating a super-sovereign alternative was confined to academic circles.
Click to expand...

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE5650WO20090706?virtualBrandChannel=11569
 
Cats out of the bag and our kids and grandkids will pay the price. I feel for them.:(

Today I am tempted to make a move into stocks. My reason is simple, futures are down (885) and will test the lower bollanger band (888), which with the 200 day simple moving average (887.9) should act as some sort of support.

If it fails to hold, look out below!

Mind you I am not bullish, just looking for my one trade a month play.
 
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