8/30/12
Stocks ended the day mostly flat again yesterday, after a failed afternoon attempt at a rally. The Dow gained 4-points on the day, but has hung tough during the normally rough month of August.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="width: 156"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0029%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
GDP (1.7%) was slightly better than expected (1.6%) and that little positive surprise may have been negated by the fact it may lessen the chances of a QE3.
The S&P 500 has done almost nothing over the last 3 days as volume has dried up in the pre-holiday trading. We may be waiting until after the holiday before we see any meaningful move, but there is a big positive seasonal bias this Friday, and a big catalyst, which I'll mention below.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Here is the seasonality chart for August. Check out day #23, which is Friday of this week...
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
And here are the historic results surrounding Labor Day weekend. Friday's big spike coincides with day #23 above as the Friday before Labor Day weekend is often the last trading in August.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
To put a little more pressure on Friday, it also happens to be the day that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers his speech at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors are waiting to hear whether or not the central bank will use the address to gives clues about the next round of quantitative easing and / or asset purchases.
September is the worst month historically and this chart shows all of the red days we will be up against.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It's the only month with a negative average return from 1950 and 2011.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
During election years, it is still a month that struggles, but election year Septembers are not as bad as a random September.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks ended the day mostly flat again yesterday, after a failed afternoon attempt at a rally. The Dow gained 4-points on the day, but has hung tough during the normally rough month of August.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="width: 156"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0029%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
GDP (1.7%) was slightly better than expected (1.6%) and that little positive surprise may have been negated by the fact it may lessen the chances of a QE3.
The S&P 500 has done almost nothing over the last 3 days as volume has dried up in the pre-holiday trading. We may be waiting until after the holiday before we see any meaningful move, but there is a big positive seasonal bias this Friday, and a big catalyst, which I'll mention below.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Here is the seasonality chart for August. Check out day #23, which is Friday of this week...
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
And here are the historic results surrounding Labor Day weekend. Friday's big spike coincides with day #23 above as the Friday before Labor Day weekend is often the last trading in August.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
To put a little more pressure on Friday, it also happens to be the day that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers his speech at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors are waiting to hear whether or not the central bank will use the address to gives clues about the next round of quantitative easing and / or asset purchases.
September is the worst month historically and this chart shows all of the red days we will be up against.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It's the only month with a negative average return from 1950 and 2011.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
During election years, it is still a month that struggles, but election year Septembers are not as bad as a random September.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
