Sentiment Survey Results...

TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 1/28/13- 2/01/13

Hold: The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 53% bulls, 37% bears,for a bulls to bears ratio of 1.43 to 1. That is another neutral reading which means the survey system allocation will remain 100% G fund for the week of 1/28/13 - 2/01/13.

Bull market rules have been in effect since the week of 1/09/12:

See latest survey results

To discuss or comment on the Sentiment Survey, go to Sentiment Survey Talk
...

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

 

[JTH]

Tom, when was the last time you recall this many neutral ratings, during such conditions?

 

[tsptalk]

We had 4 "Hold"s in a row in 2011, and it happened a couple of times in 2009. That actually surprises me since neutral readings are more common. I thought there'd be more streaks like that.

What bugs me is that the sell signal we got for the week of Jan 4 was by the slightest of margins with exactly a 2.00 to 1 ratio. Literally, just a couple more bearish votes that week and the system would have been in the S fund all month.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

We had 4 "Hold"s in a row in 2011, and it happened a couple of times in 2009. That actually surprises me since neutral readings are more common. I thought there'd be more streaks like that.

What bugs me is that the sell signal we got for the week of Jan 4 was by the slightest of margins with exactly a 2.00 to 1 ratio. Literally, just a couple more bearish votes that week and the system would have been in the S fund all month.

My fault... I got bullish then...

Sorry

 

[tsptalk]

Don't you know the smart money is not allowed to take the sentiment survey?

 

[Fran1775]

Can't believe it myself. I thought by now with the sentiment.that we would have a sell signal. So much for jumping out what seems mid ralley. Hopefully we don't see another 1-2 +% before the.much needed decline.

 

[Guest]

I am new to this site and looking for a way to maximize TSP returns.
I did see the notice to hold the G fund for next week. How has the advice from Sentiment Survey? been historically?

 

[tsptalk]

Hi colbyite. The prior returns are posted on the survey system page...

TSP Talk - Sentiment Survey System

And here are the cumulative returns...

[TABLE="width: 159"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]2006-2013[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thru:[/TD]
[TD]1/25/13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sentiment Survey[/TD]
[TD]+154.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]System[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G Fund:[/TD]
[TD]+25.77%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F Fund:[/TD]
[TD]+49.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C Fund:[/TD]
[TD]+40.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S Fund:[/TD]
[TD]+60.56%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I Fund:[/TD]
[TD]+23.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

The returns are very impressive. The problem? It's tough to follow since it zigs when the market zags, etc. Folks tend to follow only after it has done well, and stop following it during under performing periods. You can see how that would work out.

To my detriment, I don't, and haven't personally followed it signal by signal, but it is a big factor in my decision making.