Sentiment Survey Results...

TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 3/05/12- 3/09/12

Hold: The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 54% bulls, 36% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 1.50 to 1. That is a neutral reading in a bull market which means the system will remain 100% S Fund for the week of 3/05/12 - 3/09/12.

Bull market rules are in affect since the week of 1/09/12:

See latest survey results

To discuss or comment on the Sentiment Survey, go to Sentiment Survey Talk

The legal stuff: This system is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We actively trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Interesting, when market was going up, we were bearish, not that market is going down(ok, sideways), we are bullish...

Oh well !!

 

[WhoDey]

Interesting, when market was going up, we were bearish, not that market is going down(ok, sideways), we are bullish...

Oh well !!

Which leads me to a question that occurred to me yesterday ... has an analysis been done of the weekly Sentiment Survey results to see how accurate it's been? I'm curious how well the survey tracks with what actually happens in the following week.

 

[tsptalk]

Which leads me to a question that occurred to me yesterday ... has an analysis been done of the weekly Sentiment Survey results to see how accurate it's been? I'm curious how well the survey tracks with what actually happens in the following week.

I don't know if I fully understand the question. Wouldn't the return of the survey system be what you are looking for? The weekly results are posted here TSP Talk - Sentiment Survey System.

And here are the long-term returns...
[TABLE="width: 119"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 82, bgcolor: transparent"]5+ Years /
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 76, bgcolor: transparent"]2007-2012
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Thru:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3/1/2012
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Sentiment
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+63.32%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]G Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+18.30%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]F Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+38.75%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]C Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+8.59%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]S Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+23.33%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]I Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-11.37%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[WhoDey]

That's what you get when new people are allowed to ask questions!

Thanks for the explanation.

 

[tsptalk]

LOL - no problem.

 

[sbates]

In a neutral "Hold" situation, what are we suppose to do? In terms of an IFT; do I keep my $ in the S-Fund or do I move it all to the G-Fund? Would I also adjust my allocation to 100% G? Since I've started using this site I've never been in a Hold or Sell situation. This noob appreciates any insight in regards to this.

Thanks for your help.

Steve

 

[tsptalk]

Hi Steve -

Hold just means the system is staying in the same allocation it was in. We don't change allocation during a hold. If we get a hold while on a buy signal, the system remains in the S fund. If we get a hold while on a sell signal, the system stays in the G fund.

The system will stay 100% S until it gets a sell signal.

 

[sbates]

Thank You for making it clearer.