2/08/13
After an early 132-point decline in the Dow, stocks settled down and drifted upward the rest of the day turning big losses into a more modest setback. The Dow ended the day down 42.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 151"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.80%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500, say it with me... remained in the narrow rising trading channel. Except for that late December capital gains sell-off, the index has been in this channel since Thanksgiving.
The rebound yesterday produced another reversal day, but like Wednesday, volume was light so we may not necessarily see the typical follow-through rally that high volume reversal days normally produce.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I'm seeing so many mixed messages out there, particularly in an area that I find to be one of the strongest indicators we have - sentiment.
Whether we like it or not, we are the dumb money and our sentiment surveys are good contrarian indicators near extreme readings. This week's survey shows us that we are a very bearish bunch, which is normally a very good buy signal for stocks.
But here is a survey showing that investors are putting money into mutual funds and ETF's at a decade high rate. Also a contrarian indicator, this would be a very bearish indication for stocks, and prior readings anywhere near this level saw imminent pullbacks and corrections in the past.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Why the disparity? Maybe we are becoming the smart money. I doubt it, but maybe?
The 10-year Treasury yield has been pulling back from last week's highs, and is close to testing the rising support line. Should yields rebound off of this support, and...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
... should the dollar find resistance at its descending resistance line, stocks may actually break to the upside (or continue in the trading channel.)
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
However, if the dollar decides to move up to test the middle of the head of its head and shoulders pattern first, which would fill an open gap on the UUP chart...
... the upward trend in the S&P 500 could be in some jeopardy.
Administrative Note: Last day! RevShark is offering a free trial to his TSP Timing Service this week . Click here for some basic info on RevShark's service... or click here for information on how to gain access.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
After an early 132-point decline in the Dow, stocks settled down and drifted upward the rest of the day turning big losses into a more modest setback. The Dow ended the day down 42.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 151"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.80%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500, say it with me... remained in the narrow rising trading channel. Except for that late December capital gains sell-off, the index has been in this channel since Thanksgiving.
The rebound yesterday produced another reversal day, but like Wednesday, volume was light so we may not necessarily see the typical follow-through rally that high volume reversal days normally produce.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I'm seeing so many mixed messages out there, particularly in an area that I find to be one of the strongest indicators we have - sentiment.
Whether we like it or not, we are the dumb money and our sentiment surveys are good contrarian indicators near extreme readings. This week's survey shows us that we are a very bearish bunch, which is normally a very good buy signal for stocks.
But here is a survey showing that investors are putting money into mutual funds and ETF's at a decade high rate. Also a contrarian indicator, this would be a very bearish indication for stocks, and prior readings anywhere near this level saw imminent pullbacks and corrections in the past.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Why the disparity? Maybe we are becoming the smart money. I doubt it, but maybe?
The 10-year Treasury yield has been pulling back from last week's highs, and is close to testing the rising support line. Should yields rebound off of this support, and...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
... should the dollar find resistance at its descending resistance line, stocks may actually break to the upside (or continue in the trading channel.)
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
However, if the dollar decides to move up to test the middle of the head of its head and shoulders pattern first, which would fill an open gap on the UUP chart...
... the upward trend in the S&P 500 could be in some jeopardy.
Administrative Note: Last day! RevShark is offering a free trial to his TSP Timing Service this week . Click here for some basic info on RevShark's service... or click here for information on how to gain access.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
