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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Sensei's account talk
- Thread starter Sensei
- Start date
Sensei
Well-known member
It looks like I missed my chance to capitalize on the downside. The futures start in the lower left and are headed sharply to the upper right. I only get one chance to buy this month. Should it be now or later?
BTW, I did my triathlon on Sunday. It was what they call "Olympic" distance. 1500m swim, 40km bike, and 10km run. Only about 1/4 of an "Ironman", but still pretty demanding. It was all done on a bridge (swim in the adjacent water) under the sun. By the run portion, I was pretty well toasted, but I managed to slog through to the end in a little over 2 hrs 37 min. I ended up 29th place out of approx. 400. Not bad for a guy who recently turned 40!
So, I'm in pretty good shape now. I really feel like that's a better investment than any move I could make in my TSP. Hopefully I can maintain a healthy lifestyle, avoid injury, and work late into life (my job is pretty rewarding, so that's not such a bad thing). As for my wife, she is slowly but surely regaining her health as well. Things are going positively, so I can't complain.
Now, to figure out what to do with my July IFTs...
:smile:
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Sensei
Well-known member
The SPX went down and filled the open gap and the W4500 is testing the 200 day moving average. It looks like the second leg down on a potential "W" has formed. Also, good seasonality around the last week of July. I'm rolling the dice and making an IFT to the S-fund, COB Monday.
Sensei
Well-known member
So, the S-fund has been up all 4 days since I've been holding it. Friday looked liked a negative reversal though, so I expect at least a day of red to start August. You can't be on the winning side every day with only 2 IFTs a month. I'm going to stay in stocks for the next week, but I'll be more than happy to hit the eject button if things start to go South.
Sensei
Well-known member
I remember a week back in 2011, I think it was September, when the S&P had been down more than 2% on two consecutive days. Tom pointed out in his commentary that this almost always resulted in a snap-back rally, and indeed stocks bounced and eventually recovered from that awful summer. So, we are now looking at another two consecutive days of the S&P being down 2+%. However, the futures are currently down 3.5%. So, it looks like that indicator has failed us.
Nevertheless, I am not going to sell. Come hell or high waters, I'm going to sit on my hands and ride this out. I can take the pain. Speaking of pain, today was my last day of summer vacation, and a typhoon kept me indoors all day. I ate too much junk food, drank too much soda, and watched too many bad movies. Tomorrow I go back to work. Starting my 8th year of federal employment. I foresee at least 25 more years to go before I really consider retirement. 25 years from now, this will just be a little wrinkle in a Morningstar chart.
FogSailing
Well-known member
I like your attitude Sensei. And be proud of enjoying the junk food, and bad movies (not so much the drinking
)...it all makes life fun! And you are right about the 25 years from now and wrinkles!
FS
Cactus
Well-known member
Wow, Sensei, you are just getting started aren't you. Good thing you don't have that much too lose yet like me. We are basically opposites. I got 25 years in and projected retirement in 7 years. I need to change that actually but don't know to what. :embarrest: With my track record I'll be working till they push me out the door or I drop in the harness. 
PessOptimist
Well-known member
I hope your first day back went well. If my calculations are correct it it just about over. If you feel bad just take it out on the students. They deserve it on the first day.
PO
Sensei
Well-known member
I really have no clue, but usually corrections like this don't resolve themselves with a V-bottom. So, yeah, I guess my bet would be more churn before moving up again. However, whatever rally this might turn out to be could last multiple days before resuming the downfall, so it's hard to say one should sell today. Hence my plan to just keep buying and holding.
You calculated correctly, PO! This week is faculty only though, no kids to punish. Yet.
DCB?
Whipsaw
Well-known member
Dead Cat Bounce...
felixthecat
Active member
Staying in for one more day to get the last bit of crumbs...then exiting. Hopefully this Dead Cat Bounce will last thru Wednesday. If we get a 600+ plus rally today on the DOW...then looking for selloff Wednesday. Too many folks lost money and will be looking to ball out any chance they get. I hate this market setup...if feels like a huge trap to lure more investors into a massacre. Ugh.
Oh and one more thing...there is an outside chance that this rally will fail later this afternoon. Setting up a very bloody Wednesday. I only give it about 30 percent. It would take some negative news story this afternoon to make that happen. So...I'm not banking on that.
Sensei
Well-known member
Part of me wanted to sell at the end of last week, but I can't get over my obsession of starting the month in stocks. Due to the IFT limitations, you know? So I'm hanging on for another week. Friday and Monday were kind of headfake days - which way do we go? I think Tuesday will be a bigger day, lending some clarification. If I'm on the right side, great. If not, sticky pants.
felixthecat
Active member
You are going to need sticky pants and diapers Sensei. Looks like China, Shanghai, and a hoard of other economies are going down the tube. The real stickler is that China is selling US Bonds in large rather shocking numbers. I believe a ways down the road its going to lead to a housing crash, higher inflation, and sooner than later QE4. We are looking at another recession for the USA coming in the near future. Looks to me like the US market will continue to unwind. Therefore....keep safe and maybe play the market on rebounds. Volatility looks like a term we will be using from here on out. When volatility gets really bad...large 401K losses will eventually happen and of course that will only lead to continued selling off. That 1000 point Dow loss...well better get used to that...we will see more of those. Friends definitely don't let friends buy and hold in recessions/bear markets.Similar threads
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