I check in from time to time and report on the herd's position based on the AT, as reported on Ocean's List. According to that list, there are 1393 members on the AT. As a non-subscriber to a premium service, I can only access "The AT of the Unwashed". Only 1043 of us are on this list. A little basic division reveals that 25% of the members on Ocean's List are subscribers to a premium service. So, that begs the question - how reliable is Ocean's List as a measurement of where dumb-money is allocated? Supposedly, the premium service are smart money, otherwise one wouldn't feel justified in spending money on them, right? So, assuming everyone who subscribes to a premium is following its suggested moves, 25% of Ocean's List should be comprised of the smart money. Of course, you never see the herd change its allocation by 25% at a time, so obviously the subscribers are not all moving in accord to the signals.
Anyway, the "herd" (be it dumb or kinda smart) is currently allocated 35% G/F, and 65% stocks & L funds. Seems overly bullish. Then again, maybe not?
All I know is that March did indeed provide a tradeable dip, but it would have required jumping to the sidelines on the first trading day. Something I was not prepared to do. So, I've been patiently absorbing pain, and now feeling somewhat optimistic that I'll recoup my losses. Continuing to follow the philosophy of "less is more". Continuing to hold C&S. Based on the last couple years, we've seen strong finishes to March and rocky Aprils, as people try to front-run "Sell in May". Lookout for it again this year.
