Sensei's account talk

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Sensei said:
I came very close to jumping off the train, but decided to ride it out to its conclusion. The W4500 is extended beyond the upper BB, but has yet to make a new high. I'd like to think it will make a new high before pulling back. Bullish sentiment appears to be rising, but the herd was still split fairly evenly between stocks and bonds/cash yesterday. I'm looking for the scales to tip a little more toward stocks before stepping aside.
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For most of the last week or two, the herd has been fairly evenly split - about 48/48 (tossing out the L-funds). Today there was a peculiar sell-off here at TSPTalk.com. We now have 51.13% in funds G&F, and only 44.82% in funds CS&I. You must think you're pretty smart, don't you? Well, I'm betting against you. :toung:

Lettin' it ride. :cool:
 
Sensei said:
For most of the last week or two, the herd has been fairly evenly split - about 48/48 (tossing out the L-funds). Today there was a peculiar sell-off here at TSPTalk.com. We now have 51.13% in funds G&F, and only 44.82% in funds CS&I. You must think you're pretty smart, don't you? Well, I'm betting against you. :toung:

Lettin' it ride. :cool:
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"Lettin' it ride" didn't last long. I'm stepping aside today. A new high in the Wilshire is only a few points away, we're on our 4th consecutive positive day, and the upper BB is in it's 3rd day of violation. I'm rolling the dice on lower prices by the end of the week. Then I'd like to jump back in.

100% G COB.
 
Thanks for adding up those numbers. I jumped out last week, I think Thursday. I believe I've missed two up days and two down days. My problem is that I can't see any reason for it to go up or down. Seasonally, June has always been bad for me. But then again, this year hasn't been like any other recent year.
 
First off, I want to reiterate my thanks to all of you who expressed your support and concern when I posted about my wife's breast cancer. It means a lot.

Here's an update. She had surgery to remove the tumor on Tuesday morning. The surgery went without complications, but the doctor found that the cancer had spread to the nearest lymph node, so he removed that as well. The lymph node, basically, is an indicator of whether the cancer is spreading to other parts of the body. In my wife's case, it is, so she will begin chemotherapy after she has recovered from the surgery. The doctor recommends that we take our annual trip to the States during July, and begin the treatments in August. While I admit that the news was disappointing, it was not necessarily a surprise. Now we will just brace ourselves for the challenges that lie ahead. We are fortunate to have a strong system of support among our friends here in Okinawa.

I'll continue checking on the site as a diversion. I managed to dodge the little pullback, but missed my chance to get back in on the rally. Oh well, life goes on. Take care!

Sensei
 
Sorry to hear that news, Sensei. One step at a time. Enjoy each day and be grateful for all that is good in your lives.

My continued best wishes, love, and prayers for you, your wife and family.

Aloha - Kathy
 
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Enjoy the trip to the States. Other than that I know not what to say Okinawan acquaintance. Leave the TSP where it lies? Long term you will gain (I hope) and you have other things on the plate right now.
Best wishes.
PO
 
Hmm. I like to enter a month in stocks, but I just couldn't find a good re-entry point in June, so I'm starting July in the G-fund. That effectively limits me to 1 IFT, unless I want to bump into the F-fund first. Not sure about that though.

I did notice approximately a 4% shift into stocks recently here at TSPTalk. The herd now sits about even at 47.61% G&F vs 47.82% CS&I. Could be buying due to the new month and new IFTs, or maybe a premium moved to a buy. Or, maybe it's just the market sucking in more buyers before a drop. It's an even split, though, so I expect more flatness before the next big move. Nevertheless, I'm looking for a chance to buy lower than I sold.
 
Hi. Been a while. Riding out a typhoon today.

Rough day for the S-funders, but the large caps seemed to hold up OK. On the lookout for a chance to buy back in, but not in too big a rush. Summer always does a number on me.
 
Sensei said:
Hi. Been a while. Riding out a typhoon today.
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Was thinking about you with the typhoon bearing down on Okinawa. I wasn't sure when you where leaving for the States. Hope things go well for you.
 
nasa1974 said:
Was thinking about you with the typhoon bearing down on Okinawa. I wasn't sure when you where leaving for the States. Hope things go well for you.
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Thnx for thinking of me. This has been the worst typhoon I've personally experienced in my six years here. I have metal storm shutters on all the windows on the exposed side of the house. The wind was so strong, they wouldn't stay shut, and one set got entirely ripped off the tracks. Water has been leaking extensively through all the windows/doors. Electricity went out at 11:00am yesterday, and is still out now at 6:30am. It's hot and humid, and the refrigerator by now is basically a big garbage bin. There's nothing to do but sweat it out inside while dreading the task of cleaning and repairing afterward. At least we're all safe though. :)
 
Hang tough, I've been there and it can be scary as hell. Typhoon Della in 1968 made me a believer.
 
The typhoon has moved on to mainland Japan. It was rough - 32 hours without power in high humidity. But lots of people suffered worse than us. Many houses and cars got flooded. We were lucky not to meet such a fate.

And now the stock market. USCFANHAWAII pointed out how many people went long the other day, and indeed Ocean's List indicates a dramatic bullish shift. As of today, about 59% of the TSPTalk members have their money in CS&I funds, while only 37% are in G&F. Until very recently, it had been an even split. It is hard to go against the grain, but I'm going to sit on the sidelines a little longer. No offense, but I don't think that many of you can be right at the same time - even if you are subscribing to a premium. At the moment, the futures look very bad for stocks, but how many times have we seen futures reverse during the trading day?...
 
Sensei said:
As of today, about 59% of the TSPTalk members have their money in CS&I funds, while only 37% are in G&F.
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Now 60.66% of you have your money in CSI, while only 35.68% are in GF. I'm worried about you. When your side of the scale gets too heavy, it's going to push me to the top. ;)
 
It's starting to feel like the market is trying to tell me something. :suspicious:
 
Yes! but it have been delayed due to the Mercury retrograde...:) I see it happening after the Fed pull the plug... around September... after Labor Day.... Be Cautious... :confused: but do not worry... there will be plenty opportunity packages... on the way down... :)
 
Quick note from a remote location. I'm in a place called Nasu, a few hours north of Tokyo. No Internet where I'm staying, and very sparse cell reception. I saw the dip yesterday, and note that 43% of TSPTalkers are now on the sidelines. Starting to get a tad more cautious. I'd like to pull the trigger now that the S fund is significantly below my current YTD return, but I think I'll wait another day. Monday will find me in Hawaii with wifi, so I'll have a clearer picture, I hope. CU then...
 
Sensei said:
Quick note from a remote location. I'm in a place called Nasu, a few hours north of Tokyo. No Internet where I'm staying, and very sparse cell reception. I saw the dip yesterday, and note that 43% of TSPTalkers are now on the sidelines. Starting to get a tad more cautious. I'd like to pull the trigger now that the S fund is significantly below my current YTD return, but I think I'll wait another day. Monday will find me in Hawaii with wifi, so I'll have a clearer picture, I hope. CU then...
Click to expand...

Good luck and a safe trip.
 
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