Sensei's account talk

Wow. Interesting and timely. Thanks!

Ultimately, I think this is what I'm going to do. Given that my investment so far has been relatively small over the course of 2+ years, I will resume DCAing small amounts once or twice a month. This will lower my average price per share, and set me up for a bigger gain when uranium does eventually rebound. This is the strategy that currently has me up 65% on my investment in BAC. Thanks to everyone for the discussion and feedback!

I'm not very accomplished as an investor and I know nothing about URA, but here's an article that I thought you might find useful in thinking about your URA decision Sensei.

Steps to Take When Your Stock's Price Falls | AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors
 
For better or for worse, I used my 2nd October IFT to re-enter the S-fund 100%. The sentiment survey shows the herd leaning bullish, which has me a little uneasy. A lot of the "smart" people who post regularly seem to be expecting a pullback. But in my favor are seasonality, QE, and Birchtree's undying optomism. And a couple more decades to cover my mistakes.

My brief 50/50 position allowed me to recover about 0.5% of the differential between me and the S-fund YTD. Just another 11-12% more and we're even! :nuts:
 
Very much the same sentiments I have, though I only went in 50% due to the current position in the trading channel... looking for BT's 200-300 pt gap up tomorrow he posted on MrJohnRoss' Account Talk! ;)
 
I'm up 21.30% for the year. Not bad. Not the S-fund, but not bad. Based on current sentiment, and the SPX's position outside the bollinger band, I went 100% G. Small caps still have room to run before hitting the BB though, so we might see them outperform next week while the S&P consolidates sideways. For now, I'm cooling my jets and waiting for a less stressful environment in which to deploy my second IFT.
 
Re: Sometimes you lose.

I wish I still had my second IFT available. I used one early to get a better position in C Fund (that's considered small caps...right?). I just see the C Fund doing very week right now. But i still have 30% in S Fund so it is nothing but gains right now.

Although .... I wish I had the flexibility to be able to jump to G Fund for a few days next week (I tend to think we will lose around .75%). And then jump back in for the ride back up for thanksgiving and through Christmas. But for now, I'll just stand by and wait. I'm currently around 4% gains in tsp since 1 oct. And 6.75% gains in my wife's account for that same period. I can't be too greedy!
 
Re: Sometimes you lose.

I wish I still had my second IFT available. I used one early to get a better position in C Fund (that's considered small caps...right?). I just see the C Fund doing very week right now. But i still have 30% in S Fund so it is nothing but gains right now.

Although .... I wish I had the flexibility to be able to jump to G Fund for a few days next week (I tend to think we will lose around .75%). And then jump back in for the ride back up for thanksgiving and through Christmas. But for now, I'll just stand by and wait. I'm currently around 4% gains in tsp since 1 oct. And 6.75% gains in my wife's account for that same period. I can't be too greedy!
C fund is actually the S&P500 - large caps. The S fund is the next 4500 stocks, including small and medium caps. C has outperformed this month, though the S got the better of the two last week. Futures are looking up now, not that that is any indication of how the day will go. Like I said, I think the C might consolidate sideways while the S floats a little higher. Looks like I might have pulled the plug a bit early. It's been a long time since I've nailed a trade. I miss that feeling...
 
Re: Sensei's Account Talk

... It's been a long time since I've nailed a trade. I miss that feeling...
There it is! Nice to have side-stepped the almost 1% loss in the S fund yesterday, but now I have to find a spot to buy back in. We could bounce 2% today, then I'd end up looking really dumb.

On a side note, my automatic purchase of CSCO will happen at the opening bell this morning. I'm feeling a little distressed, as I don't think the bottom is in yet. I guess I'll DCA into it steadily for the next several weeks to smooth out any losses.
 
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Seems Bernanke is propping the market up with talk of keeping rates low forever. Did I miss my re-entry? Just have to wait and see.
 
Hey polarbear you do know that young American negro males have a new game named after you - it's called knock out on the street.
 
Only 36.72% of us left in G or F. 50,000,000 Elvis Fans Can't Be Wrong.

And here I've been listening to the Beatles. Good luck folks.
 
So everyone thinks this is FUNNY, it's not and if they keep it up there will be retaliation then we have a real problem. It's knockout everyone that's a different color, how sick is that?
 
So everyone thinks this is FUNNY, it's not and if they keep it up there will be retaliation then we have a real problem. It's knockout everyone that's a different color, how sick is that?
nnuut - thought at first you were PUI, and really upset that I was pointing out excessive bullishness. Then I realized you were responding to Birchtree's post from about 3 weeks ago. :rolleyes:
 
Only 36.72% of us left in G or F. 50,000,000 Elvis Fans Can't Be Wrong.

And here I've been listening to the Beatles. Good luck folks.

Yesterday, the number in G/F was at 36.01%. Today, even lower at 35.13% IFT limitations and the "promise" of a Santa rally have TSP members tenaciously holding on to stocks. I too am hoping this is a buying opportunity, but I'd like to see a few of you monkeys drop from the tree before I attempt to climb up.
 
Sensei
no disrespect but this monkey is going to continue to hang soooooo you might as well getta climbing heehee
Yesterday, the number in G/F was at 36.01%. Today, even lower at 35.13% IFT limitations and the "promise" of a Santa rally have TSP members tenaciously holding on to stocks. I too am hoping this is a buying opportunity, but I'd like to see a few of you monkeys drop from the tree before I attempt to climb up.
 
Sensei
no disrespect but this monkey is going to continue to hang soooooo you might as well getta climbing heehee
You're a tough old monkey, Guchi. :D I don't need the likes of you and Birchtree to drop. Only the young and the weak. There are 650-700 of you. A violation of the 50 day MAs will be just the kind of stiff breeze to blow some of you out of my way.
 
Yesterday, the number in G/F was at 36.01%. Today, even lower at 35.13% IFT limitations and the "promise" of a Santa rally have TSP members tenaciously holding on to stocks. I too am hoping this is a buying opportunity, but I'd like to see a few of you monkeys drop from the tree before I attempt to climb up.
Unless Ocean's List or my calculator is broken, I'm seeing only 33.84% in G/F today. 2/3 of TSP Talk members' money is in stocks or stock heavy L funds. To add a little perspective, 33.84% represents approximately 355 of us. 50 members have bought and held the G & F funds all year without making an IFT. So, of the people who actually make trades, we're getting very close to empty on the bench.

I look at the charts and see the 50 day MAs are holding up for most indices. We look poised for a bounce after a few days in the red. And the Santa rally must be upon us. But something tells me I should swim against the current.
 
Unless Ocean's List or my calculator is broken, I'm seeing only 33.84% in G/F today. 2/3 of TSP Talk members' money is in stocks or stock heavy L funds. To add a little perspective, 33.84% represents approximately 355 of us. 50 members have bought and held the G & F funds all year without making an IFT. So, of the people who actually make trades, we're getting very close to empty on the bench.

I look at the charts and see the 50 day MAs are holding up for most indices. We look poised for a bounce after a few days in the red. And the Santa rally must be upon us. But something tells me I should swim against the current.

If I recall from previous studies I've done, it is fairly rare to see such a high percentage in stocks...tipping the boat
 
It might be a little premature to be predicting a bear flag, but I could see the small caps and trannies rallying for a couple days before hitting resistance at the 20 day MA. We'll see though. Whenever I try to make predictions, things usually go the other way. Here's a chart for you though: W45K 2013_12_13.png
 
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