Sensei's account talk

[Cactus]

I belive the markets and TSP.com will be closed on Monday here in the good old USA.

I didn't think Columbus Day was a holiday the U.S. market took off. I think it's only our TSP that is closed, so we can't make any trades. Sort of like a train wreck coming without our ability to get off. That's probably why some people got out on Friday.

 

[Sensei]

Sort of like a train wreck coming without our ability to get off. That's probably why some people got out on Friday.

LOL, exactly.

Looks like we're starting to go off the rails. I wonder how far we'll slide. Another test of the 20, or maybe this time the 50 day SMA? Or just a deadcat drop (is there such a thing?) that will get bought up on Tuesday before we can take advantage of the dip? Or, dare I suggest, will this be the beginning of the end of this current bull market?...

To be continued...

 

[nnuut]

US Holiday: Columbus Day

Banks & Bond market closed, Stocks open
Economic Calendar - Bloomberg

 

[Sensei]

Watch out - big last minute surge in futures. Could be a good time to buy I, what with yesterday's discount built into today's price. Will have to stay up late to watch the open...

 

[Sensei]

Wow, what a change in sentiment over the last few days. Top 50 went from 58% stocks to 38% as of yesterday. It ought to be even lower when today's tallies get rung up on Ocean's List.

I pulled the trigger before the IFT deadline. Went 100% S. Not quite at the 50 day SMA, but very close and pierced the bottom bollinger band. Last couple times either of those things happened, we had a signficant bounce in the next couple days.

For my own reference: buying back at SPX 1432.

 

[tsptalk]

Good luck! If the markets stays down through Thursday it wouldn't surprise me if we get another quick buy signal in the sentiment survey again.

 

[ILoveTDs]

Glad to see were neighbors again Sensei. Both being 100% S Fund and .02% apart we should b e together for a while . Let me know when you jump.

 

[Sensei]

Glad to see were neighbors again Sensei. Both being 100% S Fund and .02% apart we should b e together for a while . Let me know when you jump.

Hey man! I'm just thankful to still be relevant. We have the good fortune to be ahead of all the funds right now, which is about all you can ask for, right? I see you still have both your IFTs, while I'm reduced to only being able to sell at this point. I expect to be long and strong for most of the rest of this month. If the SPX 50 day SMA breaks, I'd give it a day or two to recover, but then might go 50/50 after that. I fully expect the C/S funds to end the year +20%, so I'm willing to get a little roughed up along the way. Watch, now that I've said it, we'll probably fall into a major correction. Bring on Santa!

 

[ILoveTDs]

I think 4th quarter will be on the positive side also.

However, October seasonality over the last 8 years told me to get out COD Thursday, I ignored it though and stuck with my technical that are telling me to stick it out until I make some money or we hit the 80 day SMA.

 

[Sensei]

Somebody want to let the small caps know there's a rally going on? Geez, I usually like to get a little more reward out of the extra risk. I guess I should have put a little into the I fund to spice things up.

Anyway, I looked at the IFTs yesterday, and it appeared that most were moving into stocks, though the herd and top 50 still remain over 50% in G/F. Top 50 was 14% G 43% F (57% out). I wouldn't want to be in F at any time during a bull market. Just adds insult to injury when you're wrong.

So, we'll see how the top 50 shakes out after today. Should get more bullish if the rally carries past the IFT deadline. There seems a strong possibility that the sentiment survey could give another sell this week (if the rally continues). That would put it in G for the rest of October. Oh, the high drama of trading one's TSP!!!

 

[wavecoder]

Somebody want to let the small caps know there's a rally going on? Geez, I usually like to get a little more reward out of the extra risk. I guess I should have put a little into the I fund to spice things up.

Seriously, Nasdaq (QQQ) is making almost as much as TNA lol

 

[JamesE]

Anyway, I looked at the IFTs yesterday, and it appeared that most were moving into stocks, though the herd and top 50 still remain over 50% in G/F. Top 50 was 14% G 43% F (57% out).

Anybody ever notice that none of the top 10 on the tracker don't bother to contribute any helpful information here on the forum???? Not that I do mind you, but I wouldn't want to take a chance that somebody may follow my move as I'm in the 900's.
That's just kinda messed up to me.

 

[craigerv]

Anybody ever notice that none of the top 10 on the tracker don't bother to contribute any helpful information here on the forum???? Not that I do mind you, but I wouldn't want to take a chance that somebody may follow my move as I'm in the 900's.
That's just kinda messed up to me.

I've seen this mentioned a few times about the top 10. I think worrying about the top 10 is mostly a waste of time. First off, look at their excellent returns from last year, an average of -2.9%. Yea, NEGATIVE. I think the top 50 or 100 is a much better group to consider polling but a strong year for the stock funds seems to screw most of it up. If you look back at the past tracker results, it is very difficult to outperform the equities in strong bull years. But you do see some familiar names in the top 50 by the end of the year. I don't know much about the premium services but I think that plenty of them use them. The bottom line is, you can spend your time chasing the top 10, but no matter what market we're in, the top 10 will always seem like they had all the answers. Well, last year certainly tells a different story for the seated tracker kings, but based on last year, I'm not planning on following any of SWAVET's trades (no offense, SWAVET, just making my point).

 

[wavecoder]

Anybody ever notice that none of the top 10 on the tracker don't bother to contribute any helpful information here on the forum???? Not that I do mind you, but I wouldn't want to take a chance that somebody may follow my move as I'm in the 900's.
That's just kinda messed up to me.

FWIW, I would rather follow someone who's consistently been in the top 50-100 for a string of years. Someone could make the top 10 one year and lose 20% another year, follow the consistent performers. ContrarianJeff, Aviator_guy, and Intrepid_timer (gotta pay for his though) are some good choices.

ContrarianJeff doesn't post often, but when he does, people seem to listen haha. The guy knows his stuff and has consistently made good returns, you can't say he's just been lucky.

 

[Sensei]

FWIW, I would rather follow someone who's consistently been in the top 50-100 for a string of years. Someone could make the top 10 one year and lose 20% another year, follow the consistent performers. ContrarianJeff, Aviator_guy, and Intrepid_timer (gotta pay for his though) are some good choices.

For the last few years, the C and S funds have been pretty good too.

 

[JamesE]

I've seen this mentioned a few times about the top 10. I think worrying about the top 10 is mostly a waste of time. First off, look at their excellent returns from last year, an average of -2.9%. Yea, NEGATIVE. I think the top 50 or 100 is a much better group to consider polling but a strong year for the stock funds seems to screw most of it up. If you look back at the past tracker results, it is very difficult to outperform the equities in strong bull years. But you do see some familiar names in the top 50 by the end of the year. I don't know much about the premium services but I think that plenty of them use them. The bottom line is, you can spend your time chasing the top 10, but no matter what market we're in, the top 10 will always seem like they had all the answers. Well, last year certainly tells a different story for the seated tracker kings, but based on last year, I'm not planning on following any of SWAVET's trades (no offense, SWAVET, just making my point).

I'm not concerned with past years performance, it means that they have the CURRENT MARKET "figured out" so to speak. The stock market is a constantly changing enigma, therefore no one or service will be right every year. It's this way year in and year out with the top ten, whoever they are. I might add that when you finish the year +30% or more, it's safe to say you had all the right answers (this year).

 

[Birchtree]

The problem with performance is you don't know how much money is up for risk backing those decisions. Those with shallow pockets will take larger risks because there is less on the line. Of course if big money makes the right decisions then the gains are self evident. A 5% gain on a large amount of money is more worthwhile than a 30% gain on a small amount of money. There is plenty of time to build the asset base for retirement. Once you reach retirement don't shrink from risk because now you have deeper pockets and it takes money to make money. So I say follow the retirees if you must follow someone - your odds are increased that risk is more appreciated.

 

[Cactus]

Anyway, I looked at the IFTs yesterday, and it appeared that most were moving into stocks, though the herd and top 50 still remain over 50% in G/F. Top 50 was 14% G 43% F (57% out).

Another way to look at this is that the top 50 have already made their money for the year and can afford to be more conservative, while those like me at the other end of the list are going in trying to get something this year.

 

[Sensei]

Another way to look at this is that the top 50 have already made their money for the year and can afford to be more conservative, while those like me at the other end of the list are going in trying to get something this year.

Well, the top 50 was actually only 25% G/F at the start of trading today. Bullishness extremely ramped up. Makes me worried, especially as we near SPX 1470 and the upper bollinger band. Too many days left in October to sell with no IFTs left. What to do? Some sideways action for a few days would be welcome.

 

[ILoveTDs]

Sensi, if the market is up tommorow I will probably get out for a few days. But I have the 2 IFTs