Sensei's account talk

[Sensei]

It was nice to have 81% in S today. Not sure though whether the small caps are leading, or failing to follow. I guess we'll find out tomorrow. My annual return is now the highest it's been so far this year, which has me worried that I'm about to take it on the chin.

For those following my adventures in less than 1% trades after running out of IFTs, I didn't really take advantage of it last month. It turns out that only holding 1% of the L funds isn't very helpful. With only mild to moderate action in the market, there wasn't ever enough of a change for those allocations to move up to even 1.01%. My 5% in C, however, did advance to 5.01%, which I was able to buy up to 6%. So, for anyone thinking of using this technique down the road, I'd say you'll probably need 3-5% in each of the funds in order to see enough variation to make a <1% IFT.

For this month, I'm stuck with what I got: 81 S, 6 C, 1 I, 3 L funds, and 9 G. I'll hold that way until it's time to sell, or we get to the end of the month and I can afford to burn an IFT.

 

[wavecoder]

market is showing mixed signals atm, but if anything's a good sign, both the IYT and SPX bounced off the lower bollinger with conviction. buyers are starting to show up and become more aggressive buying the dips, the bulls aren't gone yet. with that said, the bulls and bears neither seem to have the advantage right now, it's a little tug-o-war battle

 

[Bquat]

Anybody else think we're looking at a head & shoulders?

View attachment 20144

Maybe if you can get 1423ish and a retrace down. I'm showing a decending triangle with flat bottom. Bearish maybe? Orange 13 day not supported and we closed below the 20 day. But sometimes I'm the contrarian. What you think?

 

[PessOptimist]

Haha! PessOptimist-san, you don't need to add "san" to "sensei", because you are already respecting me with that title.


10-4 on the bandwidth. Makes sense. But as for the plug into wall deal, take a look for yourself at their website. I don't understand it either.
magicJack PLUS - FREE Local and Long Distance

Hai Sensei. I never professed to be able to speak or understand the language. I only tried to figure out what to eat other than okono miyaki at the Fukuoka train station once we moved to Tsu Shima. Found a fast food joint, mochigomi instead of fries but it kept me alive and under the all other Japan per diem rate. I love sticky rice to this day.

I will try to go to that web site and figure out this plug in to the wall thing.

Thanks for all your investment inputs. Too bad, I never follow anyones advice.

PO

 

[Sensei]

Hai Sensei. I never professed to be able to speak or understand the language. I only tried to figure out what to eat other than okono miyaki at the Fukuoka train station once we moved to Tsu Shima. Found a fast food joint, mochigomi instead of fries but it kept me alive and under the all other Japan per diem rate. I love sticky rice to this day.

I will try to go to that web site and figure out this plug in to the wall thing.

Thanks for all your investment inputs. Too bad, I never follow anyones advice.

PO

Tsu Shima? Is that the island between Japan & Korea, or is there a place in Fukuoka with the same name? I love FUK (that's the airport abbreviation!). We're going to visit during winter break. Were you there as a gov. employee, or otherwise employed? The only bases we have that I know of in the area are Sasebo and Iwakuni. I'd love to live up there some day.

 

[Sensei]

Here's what I'm thinking, and please correct me if I'm wrong. My prediction is a "bull flag" in the VIX, which would ultimately end in higher volatility and probably a drop in stock prices. But I think it's a few days off, as the flag/pennant needs to drop down a little. Maybe 2-3 days of gains ahead, then step aside.

 

[wavecoder]

i was thinking something along those lines. the market probably has one more oomph in it (likely a news driven one tomorrow thanks to draghi), then pullback.

futures are up a little bit. the russell 2000 though is showing a breakout pattern than held today, who knows. I'm always cautious dealing with September though. Also with that RUT breakout, it could be a breakout failure if it closes below 820, so it's on the fence still.

my system would trigger sell if S&P fails 1400 resistance / RUT fails to hold breakout of 820

 

[JamesE]

I hope you guys are right, I hit the G fund last Friday on a call from a paid site (not here). They are saying just what you are, man I hope they're right. I'm giving it 3 months to see if it's worth it, after that I'm saying screw all this needless headaches, lost sleep, money, patience. I'll throw it all in and ride, I'd be up waaaaaay more last year and this year.

 

[clester]

I hope you guys are right, I hit the G fund last Friday on a call from a paid site (not here). They are saying just what you are, man I hope they're right. I'm giving it 3 months to see if it's worth it, after that I'm saying screw all this needless headaches, lost sleep, money, patience. I'll throw it all in and ride, I'd be up waaaaaay more last year and this year.

My suggestion is to quit the paid service and do it yourself. Don't follow any system just consider others ideas but follow your own gut and analysis. You just have to get the emotion out and think contrarian.

 

[PessOptimist]

Tsu Shima? Is that the island between Japan & Korea, or is there a place in Fukuoka with the same name? I love FUK (that's the airport abbreviation!). We're going to visit during winter break. Were you there as a gov. employee, or otherwise employed? The only bases we have that I know of in the area are Sasebo and Iwakuni. I'd love to live up there some day.

Once I got started I found my reply is going to be long. So I will just answer your questions. Yes, the island, probably, active duty USAF and correct assuming Sasebo and Iwakuni are still open. During this time there was a small MAC Detachment at Itazuke AB. AKA FUK.

Going to take my loooooong reply to my own home. If I can find it.

Once again thanks for your conversations about what to do TSPwise.

PO

 

[Sensei]

Anyone here think we might be forming the head of an H&S?

 

[Sensei]

I think we could still drift higher, but hovering outside the upper bollinger band for 3 days makes me very worried, as that type of action has only been met with a smack down over the last year. I reallocated to the following:

25 G
25 F
25 C
25 S

Terrible lack of conviction, I know. Sue me.

 

[Bquat]

I think we could still drift higher, but hovering outside the upper bollinger band for 3 days makes me very worried, as that type of action has only been met with a smack down over the last year. I reallocated to the following:

25 G
25 F
25 C
25 S

Terrible lack of conviction, I know. Sue me.

Ok, hi Sue.

 

[Sensei]

Man, looking at Asia, Europe, and our futures today, it seems like we're in for another surge up. Good thing I idiot-proofed my last IFT by forcing myself to leave 50% in stocks. Not sure what my plan of attack will be from here. I guess I'll just ride it out as far as it goes at 50/50, and think about buying back in at the next test of the 20 day SMA.

 

[Sensei]

Very little to contribute recently. Still 50/50. I'll look at the charts later, but mostly just wanted to try posting from my phone. Mission accomplished!

 

[bmneveu]

Very little to contribute recently. Still 50/50. I'll look at the charts later, but mostly just wanted to try posting from my phone. Mission accomplished!

Welcome to the world of inefficient multitasking, lol

 

[Sensei]

The day is young and the channel might not hold, but if it does... that would be a crazy bullish channel. Tell me, am I crazy?:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

We'll be at 1566 before you can blink and then it becomes boundless.

 

[wavecoder]

The day is young and the channel might not hold, but if it does... that would be a crazy bullish channel. Tell me, am I crazy?:nuts:

View attachment 20352

that would be crazy to see, but a sustained upward channel like that is next to impossible lol. at some point there would have to be some selling, can't buy unless someone's willing to sell

 

[Sensei]

Still a lot of prevailing bearishness here. 75% of the herd in G & F, and 55% of the top 50 there as well. The 20 day SMA is rising up and price is now within the bollinger bands. I'll look for a meltup to 1480 or so. New allocation:

90 S
05 C
05 I (why do I always buy this freakin' fund?! :laugh