Sensei's account talk

[Sensei]

Re: Sensei's Account Talk

Looking back over the last six months, I saw that there was a time (in the ellipse) that the SPX was up 8 out of 9 days, and the formation looked similar to what we have now. Price elevated well above the 20 day SMA and rolled over until it bounced off it as support. The difference was that, at that time, the S&P's price was outside the bollinger band for a few days. Now, thanks to the last 4 days of flatness, price is well inside the bollies and the 20 day is starting to rise up. We could see a little more consolidation, or we could just keep heading up.

It may or may not be relevant to note that the formation in the circle I'm referring to was basically the beginning of the end of our beloved Dec-Apr bull market. I'm watching with interest.

View attachment 19937

I see a huge bear flag, though it looks like we should have dropped by now.

I drew the bear flag a couple weeks ago, but didn't remove it. Extended it out. It looks more like an upward channel to me, though Tom has been pointing it out as a "rising wedge" of late. Whatever you want to call it, you can see that yellow resistance line overhead, so I'm looking for a pullback to the 20 day at 1380. If that doesn't hold, the 50 day and bottom of the channel would be down around 1360. But I think there's too much bearishness to drop that far at this time. We might not even see 1380. I might re-enter 100% if we get to 1390 before the noon deadline in the next couple days.

 

[bmneveu]

So do you still have any TZA shares or did you sell them all with today's signal? I missed the trade so we will see who tomorrow goes.

I kept TZA for now. Futures are up right now but I think we'll sell off eventually -- sometime this week, if not today!

Edit: Or so I hope, lol

 

[Sensei]

The VIX made a nice gain without the S&P taking it in the shorts. Good news for the bulls. It looks like it's in a descending wedge, which is probably not good for the intermediate term, but I think it will hit resistance around 16 at the 20 day MA, which ought to be around the same time the S&P might be finding support at its 20 DMA.

 

[Sensei]

Burned up second IFT of the month. New allocation:

90 - S
6 - C
1 - I
1 - L2050
1 - L2040
1 - L2030

Admittedly, I'm chasing gains and ended up buying back in with 50% of my account at a higher price than I sold. But I don't want to be on the sidelines if we are about to embark on another 2-3 month bull run.

FWIW, Tom and others have suggested that "young" investors (I still have the better part of 3 decades between now and retirement) would be wise to always have a portion of their account in stocks. That's why I only sold 50% a couple weeks ago, and that's why it doesn't hurt quite as much to be chasing right now. As always, the advice here is invaluable.

 

[craigerv]

Sensei, are you leaving those 1%'s in the L funds in case you need to do a < 1% transfer? I remember reading some threads about that, but it's hard to tell if anyone really uses it. I haven't put it through any simulations yet so I haven't used it myself.

 

[Sensei]

Sensei, are you leaving those 1%'s in the L funds in case you need to do a < 1% transfer? I remember reading some threads about that, but it's hard to tell if anyone really uses it. I haven't put it through any simulations yet so I haven't used it myself.

Exactly the reason. I'm thinking I might want to sell a portion of my S holdings before the end of the month, and by putting a little in each of those funds I'll potentially be able to buy back almost 6% per day if I need to. We'll see how it goes.

 

[Sensei]

Reasons to be bearish:

SPX up against resistance?


VIX about to bounce off support?


...the lines on the charts were drawn by me, so they are only a pigment of my fimagitation. The bollinger bands still show a little more room for the SPX to rise and the VIX to drop, so that can be the bullish argument.

I see Aviator Guy jumped ship. If you're reading, AG, please post your thoughts again.

 

[Sensei]

I thought we were getting stretched, so I moved 10% to G. But when W4500 was up .98% before the deadline, I was pretty sure I'd be locking in a gain. Surprised to find it down .03% at the close.

I think it might take a little pullback, but sometime in the near term we'll see the S&P make a new high. Times like these, it's probably best to just look away for a little while. Here's my new allocation:

81 S
05 C
01 I
01 L2050
01 L2040
01 L2030
10 G

 

[Sensei]

I just clicked on the "settings" tab at the upper right of the screen, and saw that I had received some "rep" from members a couple months back. Kind of a nice surprise. I think I like that more than the "likes". I think I'm going to get old school and start doling out more rep.

Typhoon this weekend in Okinawa. Yippee! Got the whole yard cleared up and tied down, and have plenty of videos on tap. I just hope we don't lose power - even with the wind and rain, it's hot!

 

[nnuut]

I just clicked on the "settings" tab at the upper right of the screen, and saw that I had received some "rep" from members a couple months back. Kind of a nice surprise. I think I like that more than the "likes". I think I'm going to get old school and start doling out more rep.

Typhoon this weekend in Okinawa. Yippee! Got the whole yard cleared up and tied down, and have plenty of videos on tap. I just hope we don't lose power - even with the wind and rain, it's hot!

I was stationed on Kume Jima in 1968 when Typhoon Della hit. Tore our radar site to shreds, the top of a mountain isn't the place to be during a big storm. Oh the memories.
http://repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/2433/124765/1/b19p1n153p04.pdf

 

[Sensei]

I was stationed on Kume Jima in 1968 when Typhoon Della hit. Tore our radar site to shreds, the top of a mountain isn't the place to be during a big storm. Oh the memories.
http://repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/2433/124765/1/b19p1n153p04.pdf

Wow, sounds like you experienced a pretty bad one. They're talking on the news about this one setting some records for wind speed and rainfall. I've been through a couple in my time here, but only one that really shook the windows and caused any power outages. I think this one could be a little more powerful. The Americans are calling it Bolevan, but the Japanese just call it #15. I guess I should mention that we live on top of a hill.:blink: The wind definitely whips around more here than down at the bottom. Just took the dog for a walk, and so far it's not much more than a breezy evening, but this picture looks like it's about to get a lot worse.

Going to bed. I'll let you know how things are in the morning.

 

[nnuut]

I hope Mother Nature is kind to Okinawa this time, batten down the hatches!
Della blew our wind speed odometer off of the operations building the indicator was stuck at 225 mph! The slope of the island up to our site magnified the wind speed. We had two BIG radar domes one pneumatic and one geodesic they never found the blow up dome, parts of the other were scattered all over the island.

 

[wavecoder]

dang, take care of yourself out there! looks like a nasty storm.

Wow, sounds like you experienced a pretty bad one. They're talking on the news about this one setting some records for wind speed and rainfall. I've been through a couple in my time here, but only one that really shook the windows and caused any power outages. I think this one could be a little more powerful. The Americans are calling it Bolevan, but the Japanese just call it #15. I guess I should mention that we live on top of a hill.:blink: The wind definitely whips around more here than down at the bottom. Just took the dog for a walk, and so far it's not much more than a breezy evening, but this picture looks like it's about to get a lot worse.

Going to bed. I'll let you know how things are in the morning.

 

[Sensei]

The storm has passed, and school is back in session. No major damage, just a lot of wind and rain.

The "herd" is currently 65 G/F, 35 C/S/I. The top 50 are close to 79 G/F, 21 C/S/I. A lot of bears. Tom's commentary today had a bearish bent. I think there's only one direction for this to go, and I plan on clinging to Birchtree's coat tails all the way up.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

The storm has passed, and school is back in session. No major damage, just a lot of wind and rain.

The "herd" is currently 65 G/F, 35 C/S/I. The top 50 are close to 79 G/F, 21 C/S/I. A lot of bears. Tom's commentary today had a bearish bent. I think there's only one direction for this to go, and I plan on clinging to Birchtree's coat tails all the way up.

Glad your safe.

Be careful on the long side. There is a difference between the "herd" here and the "herd" of Mom & Pop investors. All the systems I track are long right now...

 

[Sensei]

Glad your safe.

Be careful on the long side. There is a difference between the "herd" here and the "herd" of Mom & Pop investors. All the systems I track are long right now...

You do have a point, but with the TSP, you're stuck with the team you're on for a day and a half, so you might as well root for 'em to win.

 

[Sensei]

I think there's only one direction for this to go, and I plan on clinging to Birchtree's coat tails all the way up.

Did I say "up"? I meant "down". Futures and DAX just did a big fat U-turn.

 

[Sensei]

Looking at the futures right now.

 

[Sensei]

Anybody else think we're looking at a head & shoulders?

 

[Sensei]

I came very close to selling more of my stock position, but reconsidered. I think we are in a little H&S pattern, but with the bollinger band just below, the market now oversold, and increased bearishness, I'm thinking we'll see a test of the head next week. I'm going to hold until we get back up around SPX 1410, then probably dump 50%.