Sensei's account talk

[nasa1974]

Still languishing with the 600 Club. More importantly, I'm still 6.9% behind the L2040, which is where I had my money before "taking control" of my TSP last year. I feel like I've driven it off a cliff rather than taking control.

For the time being, I'm going to hold S. While a lot of people are drawing a lot of imaginary lines of support and resistance on the charts, what I notice is that lately we've had more variety of up and down days with a general trend higher. Previously we would have 3-5 up days followed by 3-5 down days, and the cycle would repeat. Kind of easy to trade. Now, though, I think we're starting to establish an uptrend, and if I tried to step out of it, I'd just be burning myself again. So, unless we start to put together a string of red days, I think I'll stay invested.

Been there! Done that! Earlier this year I was up 12%. After today I am at a -9 something. Just remember you are in for the long haul. Good Luck.

 

[Sensei]

Been there! Done that! Earlier this year I was up 12%. After today I am at a -9 something. Just remember you are in for the long haul. Good Luck.

Yes, long haul. Absolutely. It's a marathon, not a race. All that jazz. Yesterday was fun - how do we keep the party going for the next 30 years?
:toung:

 

[Sensei]

The air's leaking out of the market in Europe. We'll start in the red. It seems that SPX 1275 ought to be support if we are to continue higher. It's about -0.75% below. If we plunge below that today, I think we might go lower over the following days.

Last night I actually put in an IFT - not major. Just 20% to G and a distribution of the rest over C/S/I. I thought better of it and cancelled before the deadline. If 1275 doesn't hold by today's IFT cutoff, I think I'll make that IFT to try and preserve some dry powder while keeping skin the game.

 

[Sensei]

All right, I think I'll just leave all my money right where it is in the S-fund and check back with you next April or so.

 

[Sensei]

I was thinking today might be good for a short-term sell, but we're dropping too far, too fast. I think everybody is looking for support to hold around SPX 1225, which isn't too much farther down. If that holds, we could go on a tear that takes us to a new short-term high. I don't want to step out and miss the next ride up. I'll just put on ear-muffs or blinders or whatever for the next couple trading days.

 

[Bquat]

I was thinking today might be good for a short-term sell, but we're dropping too far, too fast. I think everybody is looking for support to hold around SPX 1225, which isn't too much farther down. If that holds, we could go on a tear that takes us to a new short-term high. I don't want to step out and miss the next ride up. I'll just put on ear-muffs or blinders or whatever for the next couple trading days.

I glad you came up with that number because it's just about the bottom of my channel. I was hoping for 1240 to hold.:worried:

 

[Sensei]

I glad you came up with that number because it's just about the bottom of my channel. I was hoping for 1240 to hold.:worried:

Yes, I've been following your charts. Thanks for sharing them! Tom's charts show similar support lines. And so far it looks like they're holding up, even in today's nastiness. Knock on wood...

 

[Sensei]

Falling back to standard time is going to kill me. Last year I was simply following the Sentiment Survey, so I didn't worry about getting my IFT's in by noon EST. With the time change, the market won't open until 11:30PM my time. I'll have to set my alarm for 1:00AM to make a decision!

 

[nasa1974]

Falling back to standard time is going to kill me. Last year I was simply following the Sentiment Survey, so I didn't worry about getting my IFT's in by noon EST. With the time change, the market won't open until 11:30PM my time. I'll have to set my alarm for 1:00AM to make a decision!

That's rough. The FRTIB seems to make decisions that affect the folks in the normal US time zones. They don't consider those that are overseas.

 

[Sensei]

That's rough. The FRTIB seems to make decisions that affect the folks in the normal US time zones. They don't consider those that are overseas.

Well, I don't expect policies of the world to revolve around me (though it would be nice :cheesy. I guess I just complain because I'm good at it. I will adapt.

 

[nnuut]

They want us all to be By and Olders!:laugh::suspicious:

 

[Sensei]

We had a nice rolling earthquake in Okinawa today. The most benign 6.8 I could imagine. No tsunami warning. No damage. All is good.

I'm still 100% S, waiting for a bounce. As soon as we get it, I'm thinking of moving to a diversified position and ... holding for a while.

 

[Handballer]

What's By? I understand Olders, I'm there already. What's wrong with Olders?

I'm just gitting my postage up.

They want us all to be By and Olders!:laugh::suspicious:

 

[nasa1974]

What's By? I understand Olders, I'm there already. What's wrong with Olders?

I'm just gitting my postage up.

If you look under the logo I think that is what nnuut is refering to.
The logo is from the "Home" page.
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[nnuut]

Oh! that should have been Bi and Olders!

 

[Sensei]

Oh! that should have been Bi and Olders!

I thought you meant that FRTIB wanted us to just stand BY and get OLDER.

 

[nnuut]

I thought you meant that FRTIB wanted us to just stand BY and get OLDER.

Just an attempt at a double PUN!:laugh::laugh:

 

[Sensei]

I'm not very good at posting charts - if I get time later tonight, I'll try from home. But here's what I'm seeing by doing a comparison of the S&P with some of the major overseas indices (DAX, FTSE 100, and NIKKEI): While the S&P is showing kind of a "W" (very short 2nd leg down, with the 2nd leg up now almost at the height of the 1st leg up), the overseas indices show a more pronounced "W" with a longer 2nd leg down, and still a long way to go to reach the height of the 1st leg up.

I'm not much of a fan of the I-fund, because I don't understand FV, and it seems like any strength in the markets is always offset by strength in our dollar. But I'm thinking now might be a good time to put a little into I.

 

[Bquat]

I'm not very good at posting charts - if I get time later tonight, I'll try from home. But here's what I'm seeing by doing a comparison of the S&P with some of the major overseas indices (DAX, FTSE 100, and NIKKEI): While the S&P is showing kind of a "W" (very short 2nd leg down, with the 2nd leg up now almost at the height of the 1st leg up), the overseas indices show a more pronounced "W" with a longer 2nd leg down, and still a long way to go to reach the height of the 1st leg up.

I'm not much of a fan of the I-fund, because I don't understand FV, and it seems like any strength in the markets is always offset by strength in our dollar. But I'm thinking now might be a good time to put a little into I.

I get the chart from msn money. Select S&P, select a time frame, then select candle stick and the start and stop dates I want and redraw. Then I right click on the chart, copy it and past it in word. I then draw my lines in word. Just a simple chart.

 

[Sensei]

After losing over 4% of my retirement yesterday, I topped off today with a root canal. Gotta love it.

Tried Bquat's advice with msn.money, and here's a chart to think about today. Notice that we closed just above the 100 Day MA. In the last couple weeks, this has happened twice, and both times was immediately followed by a sizeable bounce over the next few days. Let's see how the third time plays out.