Sensei's account talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
How Japan's Recovery Could Help U.S. Stocks
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...3311060.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_MIDDLEFourthNews

This is why I've been trying to accumulate shares of the Japan Equity Fund (JEQ). I've only been at it for a couple months though, so don't really have much of a base built up in case share prices start going up.

I've also been accumulating shares of uranium (URA). They were $22 a share in March. Now they're down below $12. I'm hoping they stay down for at least a year or so. They'll get back up there eventually, as China, Brazil, India and a whole bunch of up and coming countries develop nuclear energy and create more demand.
 
Sensei said:
Would you pay $100,000 for a razor?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_technews/20110621/tc_yblog_technews/would-you-pay-100000-for-a-razor

I crunched the numbers, and I can't imagine myself spending more than a few thousand dollars on razors for the rest of my life (I didn't adjust for inlation, assumed I would use the same Gilette Sensor Excel blades for the rest of my life, and would die at the age of 80). But if I had the money to burn, I would definitely buy this bad boy.:cheesy:
Click to expand...

Hey Brother, if you're looking for ways to spend your money... I know some poor Sailor that could use the boost to his IRA... :D
 
Amazing. I was thinking that being up 2.29% this week, I might lose maybe another percent today, but escape to G at a higher price than we had last week. But now it looks like we might lose the entire week's gains today. The survey will remain on a buy/hold, which means virtually nothing anymore. I'm kind of without direction now. I guess I'll stay in to see what Friday holds...
 
Surprise surprise. S fund ended UP?! Just proves how little I know about the stock market.

Here's a chart JTH posted in Mayday's account thread. I like it, because all along I've had that old gap (1313~1318) from a while back as a mental goal to return to before bailing to the G fund. This shows that the 50 day MA is right at that area. I'm hoping that we'll hit the 50 MA, then dip down to about 1275 before breaking up again. So those are my goals. Sell at 1315, buy back in at 1275.

attachment.php
 
  • Asian markets are UP.
  • Gadhafi may flee Tripoli.
  • US & allies are releasing 60 million barrels of oil from reserves.
All reasons to look forward to being in the market on Friday. Now that I've said it, watch the S fund bleed RED:blink:...
 
Made a mistake and learned some important lessons this week.
Lesson #1: Just b/c you have an IFT (or 2 in my case) doesn't mean you should use it. Since I hadn't made an IFT in June, and I saw we were way up on Tuesday, I made a quick jump to G in anticipation of a sell off, thinking I'd jump back into S the next day. We never got a sell off, and I jumped back in having missed another 1.5% of gains.
Lesson #2: Don't give up on your system. I promised myself I'd give the Sentiment Survey a year's chance, but I started to doubt it as it stuck in the market throughout this entire correction. I picked the wrong time to try to do things on my own.
Lesson #3: If you make a wrong move, don't stand by it stubbornly, as if in defiance of the market. I saw that my guess about a sell off and lower prices was not going to happen soon, so even though it meant buying back in at a higher price than I sold at, I bought back in and was rewarded with a 1.5% gain on Friday.

Now I'm back in alignment with the survey, and I have both my IFTs in July should I need them. It seems like bullishness is on the rise, and higher prices next week might trigger a sell. But it seems that higher prices also have a tendency to produce bears, as dumb money tries mistakenly to anticipate pullbacks. The survey has been wiser than I about deciding when to hold 'em and fold 'em. Time to stand by my system.
 
Sensei said:
Made a mistake and learned some important lessons this week.
Lesson #1: Just b/c you have an IFT (or 2 in my case) doesn't mean you should use it. Since I hadn't made an IFT in June, and I saw we were way up on Tuesday, I made a quick jump to G in anticipation of a sell off, thinking I'd jump back into S the next day. We never got a sell off, and I jumped back in having missed another 1.5% of gains.
Lesson #2: Don't give up on your system. I promised myself I'd give the Sentiment Survey a year's chance, but I started to doubt it as it stuck in the market throughout this entire correction. I picked the wrong time to try to do things on my own.
Lesson #3: If you make a wrong move, don't stand by it stubbornly, as if in defiance of the market. I saw that my guess about a sell off and lower prices was not going to happen soon, so even though it meant buying back in at a higher price than I sold at, I bought back in and was rewarded with a 1.5% gain on Friday.

Now I'm back in alignment with the survey, and I have both my IFTs in July should I need them. It seems like bullishness is on the rise, and higher prices next week might trigger a sell. But it seems that higher prices also have a tendency to produce bears, as dumb money tries mistakenly to anticipate pullbacks. The survey has been wiser than I about deciding when to hold 'em and fold 'em. Time to stand by my system.
Click to expand...

It is a constant learning process. Sometimes we know better but do it anyways. Good luck.
 
Despite the fact that this rally seems overbought, and the S&P seems to have a gap, I'm going to stick with the S-fund for another week. The SS is still holding S, and I need to stay disciplined. I actually voted bearish because I think the gap will get filled, and we'll lose yesterday's gains. We'll see.

In other news, I'm in the process of trying to sell my Mazda Demio (compact) so I can buy a guy's Nissan Serena (minivan). I hate buying and selling cars, but I need the room for the family. Happy Friday!
 
Here's the Demio, by the way. You might be able to see my bay view beyond it in the BG. Life's pretty sweet!



4772951881eafd4537eae70850906.jpg
 
Nice ride. I haven't been to Japan for a long time. Where are the huge rear view mirrors on the fenders?
 
PessOptimist said:
Nice ride. I haven't been to Japan for a long time. Where are the huge rear view mirrors on the fenders?
Click to expand...
LOL! You still see them around from time to time, mainly on SUVs and older cars. 99% of Japanese always back into their parking spaces, and consequently rear view cameras have become mainstream in newer cars.
 
Sticking with the survey. Straight into the abyss. But I'm sure we'll rise out of this eventually. In the meantime, here's a picture of my newest car - 2001 Nissan Serena. This isn't the actual car - it's a picture from the internet. Judging by the stocky woman on the left, I'd say it was taken in some Eastern bloc country. Ha ha!:laugh:


nissan_serena_a1247057955b2822069_orig.jpg
 
Tainted Beef Hits Japanese Market
Authorities Find Radioactive Cesium in Shipments to Shops and Restaurants
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...767970202.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories

I'm only eating meat and produce from here in Okinawa or shipped from the States through the commissary these days. No radioactive cesium for me, thanks. The Democratic Party of Japan is fouling up everything in the wake of this disaster. How hard is it for the government to simply pay ranchers in Fukushima to not sell their contaminated meat? We're not talking about telling the entire state of Texas to shut down their ranches. Fukushima is about the size of an average county in California. Parliament needs to be disbanded, and the people need to vote the LDP back into power, as they had in all but one election since the end of the war.
 
Japan's Kan Seeks Exit From Nuclear Power
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...2422110936.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_MIDDLETopNews

Sorry, I know few of you care, but this Kan is a real fool. Yes, this disaster was horrible, and who knows what the ultimate effects of the leaked radioactivity will be, but this is an irrational knee-jerk reaction playing to voters' emotions. Eliminate nuclear energy from Japan, and what are you left with? Burning more coal? Great idea. I'll just look at it as a buying opportunity, as it will probably keep the price of uranium down for a few more months, and I've been buying URA at less than half the price of its 52-week highs.
 
Sensie: I love the I-Fund but I prefer 100% S-Fund for now. Europe, Japan... etc Not to good yet.
 
TSPIntel said:
Sensie: I love the I-Fund but I prefer 100% S-Fund for now. Europe, Japan... etc Not to good yet.
Click to expand...

I'm staying clear of the I fund, as I think the only direction the dollar can really go from here is up in the long term, which I guess means that even if the indices in Europe and Japan are up, fair valuation brings our I-fund down.

In my portfolio, though, the Japan Equity Fund (JEQ) has been my best performer - up 6.7% since May. I was hoping the price would stay low for a few more months while I try to accummulate shares, but it looks like I'll just have to keep buying at higher prices.

As for my TSP this week, I'm sticking with the Sentiment Survey. These next couple days don't have history on their side - historically down way more often than up. But the statistical concept of "regression to the mean" works in my favor.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

K
Moving funds or change investment mix question
Replies
7
Views
800
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks mostly positive but there was a slight shift yesterday
Replies
0
Views
144
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
The Frustrated Underinvested
Replies
3
Views
304
Boghie
Boghie
TommyIV
July AutoTracker Trends
Replies
5
Views
574
TommyIV
TommyIV
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Market Wrap Up and Allocation Trends
Replies
1
Views
599
JTH
JTH
Back
Top