Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
No complaints here. I don't plan to retire for another 29 years, and my job is as good as they get. Bit by bit, little by little.
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Sensei's account talk
- Thread starter Sensei
- Start date
No complaints here. I don't plan to retire for another 29 years, and my job is as good as they get. Bit by bit, little by little.
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
Taking a beating. I need to post in order to clarify my strategy in my own head.
Looking at Tom's S&P chart today, if the current downward trading channel continues, we'll find resistance around 1340. So, I'll be looking to make an IFT out of stocks if we hit that point.
I also noticed JTH had a promising prediction of a short-term breakout for S-fund, then suggested a quick sell. So I'll be looking for this chance tomorrow or the next day. It's hard to time, because any IFT I make after waking up in the morning ensures that I stay in my fund until the next day. I wind up making my IFTs late at night before going to bed. Often groggy and with only an hour of market action to go by.:blink:
Another part of me wants to stay true to the Sentiment Survey, but I just get the feeling that the current bull market is in transition, and the survey has been in neutral for the last few weeks. I'm sure as soon as I step aside, the bull will charge ahead, taking the survey with it. Maybe I should just stick?
I don't think I clarified a thing.
Looking at Tom's S&P chart today, if the current downward trading channel continues, we'll find resistance around 1340. So, I'll be looking to make an IFT out of stocks if we hit that point.
I also noticed JTH had a promising prediction of a short-term breakout for S-fund, then suggested a quick sell. So I'll be looking for this chance tomorrow or the next day. It's hard to time, because any IFT I make after waking up in the morning ensures that I stay in my fund until the next day. I wind up making my IFTs late at night before going to bed. Often groggy and with only an hour of market action to go by.:blink:
Another part of me wants to stay true to the Sentiment Survey, but I just get the feeling that the current bull market is in transition, and the survey has been in neutral for the last few weeks. I'm sure as soon as I step aside, the bull will charge ahead, taking the survey with it. Maybe I should just stick?
I don't think I clarified a thing.
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 101
Glad I am not the only one not able to figure this out. Except I have a little more time to look at the market before I have to make an IFT... 
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
I ditched my I fund position COB Friday, and was glad to be on the receiving end of Fair Valuation. Thanks to today's I fund performance, I've managed to cut my monthly loss below 2%. I made my 2nd IFT of May into S 100%, so I'll be following the Sentiment Survey again. I seriously considered jumping off the bus and into the G fund. We hit the upper resistance of the S&P's downward column at 1334, but I think over the next couple months we'll knock back and forth, winding up higher than we are now. I don't want to miss out on the gains by guessing wrong in trying to sidestep the losses.
Right now a big mofo of a typhoon is blowing its way through Okinawa. My doors and windows are rattling. Too bad it's happening on a 3 day weekend.:notrust:
Right now a big mofo of a typhoon is blowing its way through Okinawa. My doors and windows are rattling. Too bad it's happening on a 3 day weekend.:notrust:
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
This was a pretty strong one. No deaths reported, fortunately, but 62 reported injuries on the news this morning. My house is fine, but lots of tree branches to clean up.
Best of luck with the typhoon Sensei batton down the hatches! I was on Kumi Shima in 1968 when typhoon DELLA hit,---WOW!
anthony
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 10
Glad to hear you pulled through okay. By the time it got to us here it was just a lot of rain -- not even much wind to speak of.
- Reaction score
- 742
Good to hear that there was no damage to the house. How did the clean-up go?
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
Not much to report, but I thought I'd check in on my page before going to bed. Yesterday was rough. I was just starting to think we might be ready to push up to 1370 or so in the S&P, then boom. Sucker punch. Too optimistic. I guess the long term outlook is still bullish, but I think if we get up to 1335-40 in the short term here, I might bail to bonds for the rest of the summer.:suspicious:
Too optimistic. I guess the long term outlook is still bullish, but I think if we get up to 1335-40 in the short term here, I might bail to bonds for the rest of the summer.:suspicious:
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
1340?! Hell, at this point I'll take 1320.
I'm hoping the Sentiment Survey's buy signal is an indication of a rise this week. It seems lately that a neutral reading is prone to losses, but I think the buy and sell signals are pretty reliable. I'm just not sure if staying in the whole week is the way to go, or if I should bail at a close above 1320. If I'm learning anything from this beating, it's that one definitely has to be decisive, which I certainly have not been.
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
I'm getting very close to busting into negative territory on the tracker. Fortunately, I was up about 3% and change before adding myself in February. So I'm drawing my own personal line here. If the S&P drops below 1275 today, I'm going to move to a more defensive position. I think we could go as low as the 1240s, where we hit bottom in March, before coming back up. That's just me talking out of my... gut:toung:. Of course, I have no clue what is going to move the market, but I don't like that Asia and Europe were both down today, and lately we seem to follow their lead rather than blaze our own trail.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers stink. I won't even go there. Gotta look at the positive. Summer vacation starts in less than two weeks. We'll be spending most of July here on Okinawa, as my daughter is in Japanese school and doesn't go on vacation until very late. Then we'll do a couple weeks in SoCal, a few nights in NorCal, and 4 nights in Hawaii before returning in August.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers stink. I won't even go there. Gotta look at the positive. Summer vacation starts in less than two weeks. We'll be spending most of July here on Okinawa, as my daughter is in Japanese school and doesn't go on vacation until very late. Then we'll do a couple weeks in SoCal, a few nights in NorCal, and 4 nights in Hawaii before returning in August.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 210
Snake Fund!:laugh:
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
I guess in my 3 years contributing to the TSP, I've had my share of dumb luck. When I started working for the Dept. of Defense in 2008, I contributed 5% so I could get the max matching contribution, and just put everything in G. Not consciously, but because I didn't select a fund, and G is the default. So while the world was apparently falling apart, I notched a 3 or 4% gain. Of course, there wasn't much in the account to win or lose at the time.
I made my first IFT in 2009, putting everything into the L2040. Then I let it sit there until November 2010. So I bore the full brunt of the flash crash without even knowing it. When I checked my balance in November, I saw I was up like 10% on the year, so I was happy. Then I found this site, and started tacking on bigger gains, mainly by following the Sentiment Survey. Until 6 weeks ago.
The tracker says I'm down 7.21% MTD. But, you know what? If I hadn't found this site, I'd have had my money in L2040 all year, which would be a gain of 2.22% Not much different from what the survey has earned this year. So how much have I really lost? I'm going to stay in S until it comes back up. And I'm not overly optomistic that we've hit a bottom yet. I think we'll see the S&P hit 1240 before the trend moves back up. That's not to say there won't be a small rally before then. If we can get back to that stupid gap at 1313-1318, then I'll sell and wait for another drop. That would at least buy me back about 3% of what I've lost.
I made my first IFT in 2009, putting everything into the L2040. Then I let it sit there until November 2010. So I bore the full brunt of the flash crash without even knowing it. When I checked my balance in November, I saw I was up like 10% on the year, so I was happy. Then I found this site, and started tacking on bigger gains, mainly by following the Sentiment Survey. Until 6 weeks ago.
The tracker says I'm down 7.21% MTD. But, you know what? If I hadn't found this site, I'd have had my money in L2040 all year, which would be a gain of 2.22% Not much different from what the survey has earned this year. So how much have I really lost? I'm going to stay in S until it comes back up. And I'm not overly optomistic that we've hit a bottom yet. I think we'll see the S&P hit 1240 before the trend moves back up. That's not to say there won't be a small rally before then. If we can get back to that stupid gap at 1313-1318, then I'll sell and wait for another drop. That would at least buy me back about 3% of what I've lost.
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
For those with a little time to kill at work today, take a look at a slide show of the 30 Most Expensive Cities in the World.
http://images.businessweek.com/slideshows/20110608/world-s-most-expensive-cities-2011/
No surprise to me that Tokyo is #1. I'll never forget my first meal in Tokyo, in 1997. It was my first job out of college (teaching English through a Japanese government sponsored program called JET), so I didn't have much in the wallet at the time. After checking into the hotel, I figured I'd get a bowl of ramen from a street vendor. Ramen and a beer set me back about 20 bucks (it was a BIG beer
)- and that was when the exchange rate was 115 yen to the dollar! Nowadays, I might just have to take a loan from my TSP account to fund such a meal!:toung:
So, to all my TSP friends - which of these cities have you been to?
http://images.businessweek.com/slideshows/20110608/world-s-most-expensive-cities-2011/
No surprise to me that Tokyo is #1. I'll never forget my first meal in Tokyo, in 1997. It was my first job out of college (teaching English through a Japanese government sponsored program called JET), so I didn't have much in the wallet at the time. After checking into the hotel, I figured I'd get a bowl of ramen from a street vendor. Ramen and a beer set me back about 20 bucks (it was a BIG beer
)- and that was when the exchange rate was 115 yen to the dollar! Nowadays, I might just have to take a loan from my TSP account to fund such a meal!:toung:So, to all my TSP friends - which of these cities have you been to?
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 101
#26 Perth, Australia
- Only for a short time in 2005, but since I was on per diem it didn't feel too bad... Gas was horribly expensive (~$3 a liter).
#20 Paris, France
- 3 days on a 2 week "European Vacation" (not quite that bad, but we did have MIL in tow) in 2001. I didn't think it was too bad, but the people were ruder than I expected.
#6 Zurich, Switzerland
- 1 day (overnight) during our 2001 European vacation. We did note that it was expensive, but we did go to areas that are frequented by tourists (premium paid). We did stay at a hostel to save some money on hotels
#1 Tokyo, Japan
- 1 day trip during a 1990 deployment. I loved it but it was expensive to eat. Electronics were cheap and we went all over Tokyo (mass transit was plentiful and inexpensive) to try and see as much as we could from 0600 to curfew at midnight
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
#26 Perth, Australia
- Only for a short time in 2005, but since I was on per diem it didn't feel too bad... Gas was horribly expensive (~$3 a liter).
#20 Paris, France
- 3 days on a 2 week "European Vacation" (not quite that bad, but we did have MIL in tow) in 2001. I didn't think it was too bad, but the people were ruder than I expected.
#6 Zurich, Switzerland
- 1 day (overnight) during our 2001 European vacation. We did note that it was expensive, but we did go to areas that are frequented by tourists (premium paid). We did stay at a hostel to save some money on hotels
#1 Tokyo, Japan
- 1 day trip during a 1990 deployment. I loved it but it was expensive to eat. Electronics were cheap and we went all over Tokyo (mass transit was plentiful and inexpensive) to try and see as much as we could from 0600 to curfew at midnight
Nice! I'm still waiting to visit Europe, but adding kids doesn't make the endeavor any easier or cheaper. I was surprised to see 5 Australian cities on the list - I guess the rise in their dollar and the drop in ours has made the land down under a lot more pricey. I'm hoping to visit there in the next few years, while I'm more or less in the same time zone.
If it's not a fake, i'll be buying in soon
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