Sensei's account talk

[KevinD]

Right!

Wait, that actually sounds like a good reason.

+1

(I wasn't going to say anything since the post office won't be affected...)

 

[Sensei]

I went headlong back into the S-Fund. The SS supports it. The LMBM supports it. All Coolhand's talk of liquidity seems to support it. Plus - what the heck? - it's just so much more exciting being in the big game.

The stock market seems to speculate just as much as it reacts, so I think that any effect from a possible govt. shutdown will take place in today's trading. And for better or worse, I'm stuck in G & F for today. By Monday, there might be a little residual reaction leftover from what actually happens on Capital Hill, but it will be back to business right away, and that means a continuation of the upward trend.

 

[nguyensv]

I went headlong back into the S-Fund. The SS supports it. The LMBM supports it. All Coolhand's talk of liquidity seems to support it. Plus - what the heck? - it's just so much more exciting being in the big game.

The stock market seems to speculate just as much as it reacts, so I think that any effect from a possible govt. shutdown will take place in today's trading. And for better or worse, I'm stuck in G & F for today. By Monday, there might be a little residual reaction leftover from what actually happens on Capital Hill, but it will be back to business right away, and that means a continuation of the upward trend.

good luck. I see your reasoning. I'm going to wait this week out... and let the news roll by...
If there is a government shutdown. does TSP office close?

 

[nasa1974]

If there is a government shutdown. does TSP office close?

NO!!

 

[Sensei]

I knew our elected officials would pull through in the 11th hour to keep us gainfully employed (actually, I had no clue!).

So, I'm looking forward to a green Monday in the S-fund. (None of this green please).

Also, it's my daughter's first day of first grade on Monday (Japanese school year starts in April). Life is pretty good.

 

[Sensei]

Stepped in doo-doo. 0.73%
No more IFTs, except to escape to G-fund. Lettin' it ride.:nuts:

 

[Sensei]

This is what I said at the beginning of the month:

I think the market is terribly overbought for the moment, and due to take a breath. I want to see what kind of trouble I can get in with the bond market, so I'm going 50 F, 50 G. :nuts: Probably stick this way until the Sentiment Survey flips back to a buy. I'm hoping that will be in 2 or 3 weeks. It would be nice to use my 2nd IFT around the 20th of the month and ride into May in the S-Fund. That's a lot of days in the future though.

And then I went and jumped back into the S-fund.

I'm still just starting as an investor, so I choose to look at each of my losses as a learning opportunity. The lesson here is what people have said on this message board time and again: set goals, and stick to them.

Now I am down to only my G-fund escape IFT for the rest of the month. My plan is to stick with S as long as the survey is sticking with it. All the Asian leaders were red yesterday and we were red. They were all green today, so hopefully we will follow suit. I need to focus less on the daily percentages, and look farther ahead to the weekly and monthly numbers.

Spring break's been fun - I've started jogging again, and get to walk my daughter to and from school for a few days. Life continues to be GOOD!

 

[Sensei]

3 green days at the end of this week couldn't make up for the 2 red ones at the beginning. Still, not too bad of a loss. After two weeks of consolidation, I think we're set to move higher next week.

Got one more day off before it's back to work. My Dodgers got smoked today. Haven't really had the chance to actually watch any baseball yet this year. I need an AFN dish so I can get ESPN.

 

[Sensei]

I enjoy seeing the bounce back from Monday's loss, but I'm worried about the coming weeks/months. I read an article on WSJ a couple days ago that small caps have largely hit their ceiling, and don't have as much room to grow. Large caps have more upside for the rest of the year. We saw that on Monday, when the C-fund lost only 1% compared to the S-fund's 1.5% loss. Then the Tuesday bounce for C was .5%, compared to only about .3% for S. I think we'll continue seeing that type of pattern for a while until the C and S prices end up close to even.

Also on my mind is I-fund. Some of the members I follow have been hopping over to that side recently, and I looked at a comparison of the Nikkei vs. DJIA over the last 5 years. The DJIA picked itself up off the mat from 2009 on, whereas the Nikkei dropped at the same time and has mostly stayed down. With all the reconstruction that needs to be done in Japan, we'll definitely see that portion (25%) of the I fund rise over the next months~year. Maybe that's the place to be long term? I don't know enough about the markets in UK, France, and Australia - where the bulk of the rest of the I fund lies - to be really confident about timing entries and exits though.

For now, it looks like the Sentiment Survey will hang on to a neutral position in the S-Fund, though leaning very bullish. I'm at 250 on the tracker today, and very few people above me are in G or F anymore, so most are in stocks, and there's little room for upward movement. That has me a little worried that we might be in for a drop, but I won't try to second guess the survey. I'm going to stick where I am until I get a definite sell signal.

 

[Sensei]

The friggin' dollar's killing me. Living in Okinawa and getting paid in USD means that every month I take my money to an exchange place to buy yen for my rent. Just about a week ago, things were starting to look up, then the last few days the tide has turned. Exchange houses were giving ￥80 to the buck today. I hope we see a little rally by Friday.

When I got here in August 2008, the dollar was at about ￥107. Americans still pretty much drive the same '90s vintage cars around here - recycling them amongst themselves because no one can afford to buy even a recently pre-owned car in yen.

At least my daughter is in public school now. That's one less monthly yen payment to worry about!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Just curious, but can you get money out of an ATM in Yen and get a better rate from the bank then from the exchange houses?
I haven't been overseas in awhile (2005), but I remember getting better rates that way.

Good Luck

 

[Sensei]

On base, you can get yen from the ATM's run by Community Bank. Their rates are usually lower than the exchange houses, unless the dollar drops significantly - they have a one day lag, so if the dollar drops by more than one yen in a day, their rate might be better. But they always round down to the lowest yen. They never give sen (tenths of yen). I compare rates online every morning and make my exchanges accordingly. Fun stuff.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

On base, you can get yen from the ATM's run by Community Bank. Their rates are usually lower than the exchange houses, unless the dollar drops significantly - they have a one day lag, so if the dollar drops by more than one yen in a day, their rate might be better. But they always round down to the lowest yen. They never give sen (tenths of yen). I compare rates online every morning and make my exchanges accordingly. Fun stuff.

Wow... Good luck

 

[Sensei]

I enjoy seeing the bounce back from Monday's loss, but I'm worried about the coming weeks/months. I read an article on WSJ a couple days ago that small caps have largely hit their ceiling, and don't have as much room to grow. Large caps have more upside for the rest of the year. We saw that on Monday, when the C-fund lost only 1% compared to the S-fund's 1.5% loss. Then the Tuesday bounce for C was .5%, compared to only about .3% for S. I think we'll continue seeing that type of pattern for a while until the C and S prices end up close to even.

Last two days of gains, S has only outperformed C by about .05%. But I'll bet the next day we go red, S will drop a lot lower than C. Is it time to jump ship on S yet?

How much more upside is left to I? Things to consider as we enter May and I get my IFTs back.

I'll be watching the SS - things are looking very bullish. Yesterday I was at 218 on the tracker, and only 36 people above me were 90% or more invested in G and F. I'm expecting a sell signal soon.

 

[JTH]

The S-Fund did not underperform, the C-Fund overperformed over the those recent days. When comparing the major indexes side-by-side, the C-Fund had a little bit of catching up to do, to get inline with the other indexes.

A direct comparison of the S&P 100 large caps vs. the S&P 400 mid caps shows the Large caps are the main cause of the under-performance within the S&P 500.

View attachment 10984

 

[alevin]

Nice analysis, Jason. didn't realize could look at things that way.

 

[Sensei]

Dude! Is that a screen capture from Atari 2600's Missile Command?!

The S-Fund did not underperform, the C-Fund overperformed over the those recent days. When comparing the major indexes side-by-side, the C-Fund had a little bit of catching up to do, to get inline with the other indexes.

A direct comparison of the S&P 100 large caps vs. the S&P 400 mid caps shows the Large caps are the main cause of the under-performance within the S&P 500.

View attachment 10984

 

[Sensei]

S has surpassed it's 2007 high. So has the Russell 2000 small cap index.
I is still almost 4 points below its 2007 high of 26. STOXX 600 and Nikkei are 20-30% below their 2007 highs.
C and the S&P 500 are still about 15% below their previous highs.

Sentiment Survey says to stay in S. I'd like to split it up, maybe:
50% I
30% S
20% C

The question is, is it worth a May IFT to do this? As bullishness rises, I would expect that at some point in May the survey will give a sell signal. Should I just stay in S until that point? I hate for my 2nd IFT to be an exit to G. Much better for the 1st to be an exit, the 2nd a re-entrance, and then you have that extra exit remaining. I need to decide before I go to bed tonight. Opinions welcome.

 

[Sensei]

I was hoping the Bin Laden news would have more of a positive impact on U.S. stocks, but hope and reason are completely different. After all, his death doesn't mean lower oil prices, doesn't result in democratization of oppressed Middle East nations, and doesn't bring an end to terrorism. He's just a corpse with a famous name. I guess the market has the clarity that flag-wavers lack.

So I'm still sitting in S. It was another frustrating day that saw me losing a half percent more than the C fund. If we go higher tomorrow, I doubt that S will be a half percent higher than C. This is why I'm getting wary of the small caps. Still, I don't want to burn up an IFT in a knee jerk reaction. I'll stay put for at least this week.

 

[nguyensv]

Japan is on holiday!!???!!
Nikkei's been closed until friday..... need them to come back in and save the I fund!
might use this as an opportunity to buy in with my 20%S

I was hoping the Bin Laden news would have more of a positive impact on U.S. stocks, but hope and reason are completely different. After all, his death doesn't mean lower oil prices, doesn't result in democratization of oppressed Middle East nations, and doesn't bring an end to terrorism. He's just a corpse with a famous name. I guess the market has the clarity that flag-wavers lack.

So I'm still sitting in S. It was another frustrating day that saw me losing a half percent more than the C fund. If we go higher tomorrow, I doubt that S will be a half percent higher than C. This is why I'm getting wary of the small caps. Still, I don't want to burn up an IFT in a knee jerk reaction. I'll stay put for at least this week.