Same Allocation, Different AT Return after Day One - What Gives?

[OBGibby]

I entered the Autotracker for 2015 in 20% each fund. After day one of 2015 I'm at a 0.00% return, positioned at 324 on the AT. "20%_each" started 2015 with the exact same allocation but is at position 371 on the AT with a -0.02% return. "CDooge" sits at 346 with a -0.01% return. "msm24" sits at 429 with a -0.01% return. What explains the discrepancy?

 

[tsptalk]

It's most probably a rounding issue, but the -0.02% is head scratcher. I'll take a look and explain further.

 

[OBGibby]

Thanks, Tom.

 

[tsptalk]

OK, the actual return for a 20% each allocation on Jan 2 was -0.00238669% or -0.00% when rounded.

Each account starts with $10,000 when a member signs up. That amount is compounded for the life of the account...

The "20%_each" account actually started 2015 with a balance of $12494.4287. The balance come from calculating share price x number of shares. The # of shares were determined made at previous IFT... All are rounded to 4 decimal places.

G) 14.6165 x 142.6310 +
F) 16.8017 x 124.9149 +
C) 27.1655 x 110.9509 +
S) 36.2964 x 82.1784 +
I) 24.2183 x 95.5502

After Friday the balance was updated to $12492.4277. (shares stay the same and prices are updated)...

G)14.6181 x 142.6310 +
F) 16.8315 x 124.9149 +
C) 27.1599 x 110.9509 +
S) 36.2327 x 82.1784 +
I) 24.2173 x 95.5502

$12492.4277 - $12494.4287 = -2.001
-2.001 / 12494.4287 = -0.0160151% or -0.02%

So far so good as far as the autotracker goes, but obviously not exact to the daily return of the actual 20% being in each fund.


Now lets look at OBGibby situation.

Started 2015 with $13308.6348

G) 14.6165 x 182.5037 +
F) 16.8017 x 159.0553 +
C) 27.1655 x 97.6281 +
S) 36.2964 x 73.8179 +
I) 24.2183 x 108.8941

After Friday the balance was updated to $13308.3086. (shares stay the same and prices are updated)...

G) 14.6181 x 182.5037 +
F) 16.8315 x 159.0553 +
C) 27.1599 x 97.6281 +
S) 36.2327 x 73.8179 +
I) 24.2173 x 108.8941

Or...

2667.8573
2677.1393
2651.5694
2674.6218
2637.1211

When I calculate it manually I get 13308.3089 but for some reason, the program made it 13308.3086 - but either way it is $13,308.31.

$13308.3086 - $13308.6348 = -0.3262
-0.3262 / 13308.3086 = -0.000024511% or -0.00%


So basically, there will be the slightest differences because of rounding of # of shares being calculated to 4 decimal places, but it really should never be by more that +/- 0.05% and I think this is the first time I've seen a 0.02% difference.

The daily return is even more confusing / slightly off in that all we do is subtract the new annual return from the annual return from the prior day and there's rounding there too so...

Please keep an eye on it while you remain 20% in each and let's see how close it stays or doesn't.

I get asked this 2 or 3 times a year and it's good for me to rehash it in my mind, and now to have it on the forum.

That was a nice brain exercise for a Sunday. Now back to my brain numbing football game.

 

[tsptalk]

While I'm thinking about it, perhaps I should consider setting all the accounts to $10,000 again to start each year, and recalculate the number of shares before new IFT's come in. I'll write that in my notes for next year.

Thanks!

 

[OBGibby]

I'm tracking now, Tom. I'll keep an eye on the 20% each scenario and see how it plays out. My plan is to ride out 2015 with 20% each, but we'll see what happens to that plan once I make initial contact with the enemy...err, I mean the market.

 

[OBGibby]

-1.13% for me, but 20%_each took a -1.24% hit. A .13% spread now after two trading days.

 

[tsptalk]

Well, I see the bad news. Looks like I need to get busy on this.

 

[OBGibby]

Now the daily change for today is showing -25.23. But it looks like we're all synced up now.

 

[tsptalk]

I saw that. Working on it. Thanks!