Safetyguy's Account Talk

[coolhand]

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Safetyguy wrote:

:^ Well Coolhand, it looks like we succeeded in banking some moolah. I'm getting close to making up for my January losses -- how about you?

I'm not sure ifwe were at the top of the price curve but I think it was a pretty close call. Seriously --look at thepattern in the W%R and RSI, we could be near the peak or the beginning of a prolonged upward trend.I'm looking for a dropin the next two to four days which might be a good time to get back in.If it doesn't drop, I'll put my tail between my legs and buy back in at higher prices (if I see an upward trend)

I alsoam pondering the best wayto play the C fund in March given the pending S&P 500 free-float adjustment. There will be some volatility here but maybe the market has already compensated for it.

I have a little ways to go to get back to even, but yesterday certainly helped by being half in the "I" fund.

While I watch charts, I mostly listen to more experienced chart readers including those on other boards. What I am seeing is many savvy chart readers being dumbfounded by how the market is reacting to any given news, be they bears or bulls or something in between (not always, but enough to make me realize I have to be on my toes). The market is very sensitive to information right now and chart reading (IMHO) needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Of course I can say the same thing for the fundamental side of the house too.

Bottom line is to be wary in this market (which you are). There are still very real pitfalls in the global economy, driven in large measure by our dubious domestic monetary policy and they are not going to disappear anytime soon. It is my belief that nervousness prevails, but that is not stopping traders from trying to make money. We saw what happened earlier this week when the South Korean Central Bank made comments about diversifying away from the dollar; a good drop in the market. :sWhat if China or Japan said that? They hold a lot more US treasuries.

Until global imbalances begin to shift to a more even keel the market is going to be very sensitive. It's a gamblers market right now and the stakes are getting higher.

My thoughts going forward are that we are closer to a top than the bottom. Just like you I expect a drop sometime next week. I will be happy to simply play thedipsright now. Even then I'll be hedging.

 

[Safetyguy]

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coolhand wrote:

My thoughts going forward are that we are closer to a top than the bottom. Just like you I expect a drop sometime next week. I will be happy to simply play thedipsright now. Even then I'll be hedging.

I guess we need to figure out how far things will drop. With my luck, the market will probably will shoot up like a rocket on Monday. If this does happen, at least I can take some comfort that I am not losing any money.

If there is a 2% to 3% drop in the next few days I may get back in all the way. If it is this 0.5% to 1% -- up & down stuff we have seen lately, I may just ride it out in G until there is a more definitive upwardtrend.

I tried playing the dips last year -- it is very tough to time it right and you could get caught in the whipsaw.Coolhand,remember sometimes the best TSP move is NO MOVE AT ALL.

What baffles me is whypeople are going into the F fund ?I wish them luck.

 

[coolhand]

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Safetyguy wrote:

I guess we need to figure out how far things will drop. With my luck, the market will probably will shoot up like a rocket on Monday. If this does happen, at least I can take some comfort that I am not losing any money.

If there is a 2% to 3% drop in the next few days I may get back in all the way. If it is this 0.5% to 1% -- up & down stuff we have seen lately, I may just ride it out in G until there is a more definitive upwardtrend.

I tried playing the dips last year -- it is very tough to time it right and you could get caught in the whipsaw.Coolhand,remember sometimes the best TSP move is NO MOVE AT ALL.

What baffles me is whypeople are going into the F fund ?I wish them luck.

Don't know where the bottom is in the near term. Or the top for that matter. I'm not playing these small moves up and down either. Could be a break higher this week though.GDP was a good read last week. Not to hot and not too cold. But I'll be darned if I'm going to get too optimistic. We need to see where this market wants to go and this week will probably give us a good indication.

Currently 8:15EST the dollar is down against the major currencies. Japan and Austrailia are rallying. Looks like the "I" fund may do well tomorrow, but it's way too early to tell. FOREX moves can turn quickly.

The "F" fund?It has a lot more potential to move lower than higher. Butit does not move quickly in either direction (unless foreign central banks starting selling dollars or inflation is confirmed as a problem).

If the dollar continues to drop on Monday, watch oil. I bet it moves higher. Be interesting to see how the marketreacts if that scenario plays out.

 

[Rolo]

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coolhand wrote:

The "F" fund?It has a lot more potential to move lower than higher. Butit does not move quickly in either direction

Candlestick-wise, AGG looks like it will change direction and move back up; I believe an up day tomorrow would confirm it. I agree: it's not a fast-mover.

If I were to use G, I may try F instead, 50/50 anyway, but, I am happy with C/I atm.

 

[coolhand]

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Rolo wrote:

If I were to use G, I may try F instead, 50/50 anyway, but, I am happy with C/I atm.

I'm liking "i"overc/s.The dollar is under pressure again.Plusa lot of money flowed into foreign markets in January. Could be a trend for awhile.

 

[Safetyguy]

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It looks like we picked up a penny in the G today (a very nice and early surprise).

I thought the I fund might hold out today (which it did). All the other stock funds were down as predicted, albeit this half percentage (give or take) stuff again. I think if we get 2% down from Friday's high, I'll get back in.

I'm still don't know the impact of the free float adjustment to the S&P in March (and how the TSP Fund "mismanagers" will deal with it).Thus, I may stay out of the C fund for a while. I tend to shy away from things that I don't fully understand.

At 9:23 PM (2/28/05), it looks like S&P futures are flat as is the Nikkei. The dollar is a slight bit higher vs. the euro and the yen. Oil is up 0.5% right now. We will have to see if anything major develops by morning.

As Scarlett O'Hara said, "Tomorrow is another day!"

 

[Safetyguy]

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Staying 100% G --

I considered following Tom with a token percentage into CBUT I don't think we hit bottom yet. I am still looking for at least 4% off the S&P high (maybe 1176) before I get back in. My thinking is C is better than S right now. Remember the Drops come quicly these days and theRises back to the top takemuch longer-- I rather missa half point of gain than risk losing an extra percent or two if the bottom hasn't been hit yet.

I think I fund is too risky now -- the dollar's downward trend has tostop soon (doesn't it?). Remember if the dollar gets too low, the other central banks (e.g. Bank of Japan) can manipulate some strength back into the dollar. If the dollar rises, the I fund "has to make money the old fashioned way" -- it has to earn it!!!

I was toying with the idea of going into F (see comments in F funds section) this week, but it isn't worth the risk for maybe a 1-2% upside (at most).

 

[Safetyguy]

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My rationale for moving 60% back into stocks --

For the 30% I, Dollar going down in value. More importantly,the W%R and RSI on the chart is starting to rise from the bottom -- if the past holds true, it should continue upward.

For the move into C (30%), I don't think the RSI will go lower and even though it doesn't show well on the Yahoochart, the W%R is starting upward. Also, with the reports on Friday, it could go up.

 

[Safetyguy]

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Here is the chart for the S&P 500 -- you can start to see the trend (if you discount that one bad day this week)

 

[coolhand]

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I was starting to wonder whether or not you were ever going to post again.

Tough market, huh?

 

[Safetyguy]

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coolhand wrote:

I was starting to wonder whether or not you were ever going to post again.

Tough market, huh?

It has been a tough market. I thought that when I bought into C S & I in late March and early April, it couldn't go any lower.

Iwent out of C,S, & I on 2/25/05 (same time as you did if I remember correctly) and into G when C=12.94 S=14.59 and I=15.82.

I thought I bought at a low-- C=12.64 and I=15.45 on March 31st & I bought S=14.23 on 4/4/05. Boy, I was getting worried there about whether or not I would ever be able to retire-- how low couldthe market go?

So,the numbers for today are C=12.91, S=14.68, and I=15.19 & if Iforget about my losses in the I-fund, I may have made a bit on this "sideways" market. One good thing about the way I moved in/out of the I fund, I cut my losses compared to if I had stayed put in I fund (i.e., only a26 cent loss as opposed to a63 cent loss)

The I fund has disapppointed many of us. It is baffling to figure out how it works and the way the dollar is going ... Good luck to all in the I fund, the "pot" is too rich for this player!!!

So in summary, I guess you can say I chickened out and went to G for the time being. I may be missing some gains in the next few days but I don't want to risk 1-2% losses right now.

I think that things will go down a few percentage points in the near future andI will buy back into the TSP equity funds then. BUT --let's see howmy wacko theoryworks in reality.

 

[Safetyguy]

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Why did I get out of L2020 today andthen go 50 G and 50 I?

I was starting to get worried about the US markets. I looked at the charts that correspond to F C S I. For C and S -- it looks like a downward trend (if you look at the W%R and the RSI indicators). F is a a bigger mess (even though it looked promising a few days ago). The I looks like it may be on the way up, and the dollar is going down. Until there is a little better continuity bewteen the US and foreign markets, I went 50 I and parked the rest in G.

As for L2020, I did pretty well in the latest downturn (I went in at 13.19 and yesterday it was 13.13, it probably will be backto the 13.02 rangeby COB today). Depending on Microsoft's earnings announcement this PM, it could get ugly in the C and S fund. If things look good tomorrow or in the next few days, I may jump back into L2020 or L2030.

 

[Safetyguy]

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Looking at the RSI and W%R for the C & S funds -- whenever the RSI has been this high over the last year or so, it stayed up there for at least four trading days. I'm thinking of holding my C and S at least through the end of the week. (Try www.stockcharts.com anduse $SPX for the C and $EMW for the S and see for yourself)

The indicators for the I fund aren't as positive BUT they are still pretty good (try EFA on stockcharts.com). And the dollar looks like it is on the way down (try $USD), which makes the I fund a good hold. I'll probablystay with my I fund allocation for a while too.

Someone asked me why I'm using 45% L2020 in my allocation mix. I'm using it to dampen the ups/downs a bit (since it is supposed to reallocate to the target allocation mix each night). It is something I'm playing with and I don't know how it will play out.

 

[Show-me]

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Look's like we're watching the same things on the same site. Good luck to you!

 

[Pill]

Re: Safetyguy Account

Congrats on your returns so far this year!

Keep it up!