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Safetyguy's Account Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
Safetyguy
Member
imported post
As point of background, I am a mid career, mid level, gov worker with a couple of hundredthou in the TSP. The goal is to get things to appreciate to well over a million in the next 15 years. So both growth and capital preservation are my goal.
Here is my "investing logic" --
I use the free analysis tools on Yahoo for each of the funds and try and use objective criteria to make myallocation choices. Assuming I can't be right 100% of the time, I hope to be right more often than I am wrong.
Here is an example of the free Yahoo tool. You can enter the symbol for the TSP surrogate index (i.e. AGG, ^GPSC, EFA) to get the same info for the other funds.
example
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^DWCPF&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=p12,r14,f14,m26-12-9,w14&c=
For a three month period, I try to figure out which indicator has the best correlation to the up/down price of the particular index. You can take a look at the same charts and see if you can find the same patterns. (I print them out, take a ruler and mark a line down from the best buy and the best sell dates and see which indicater is "most predictive". )
For instance, right now it looks like the W%R looks like the best fit to each of the TSP funds. The MACD isn't bad either but not as close a correlation. Based on this my interpretation for the upcoming week is as follows:
The EAFE (I Fund surrogate) may be starting an uptrend and hopefully it will start on Monday. If you already have it, hold it and see. I wouldn't buy in until it drops further.
I wouldn't get into the AGG (F Fund surrogate) right now. It seems on a downward trend and will stay there a while.
The S&P 500 (C Fund surrogate) seems like it is on a downward trend. Again a hold recommendation. I have a lot in C right now hoping for the Santa Claus rally. Hopefully emotions and gut feelings won't cost those who are in C.
The DWCPF (S Fund surrogate) looks like it is in an upward trend. If I had money in G, I would be dumping it into S right now.
Currently 51C, 30S, and 19I. Depending on howthings go on Monday before noonEST, I may dump my I and goto something like Tom (70S 30 C). Like everyone else, I'll read Tom's comments because sometimes his gut read on things isn't too far off.
Also, my strategy is also changing. I find it too hard to try and time all these changes on a day to day basis. Everytime I have tried to catch the market, I have failed. The 12 noon ET deadline and being unable to make another change that will be effective until COB the next day is a "day and a half"window of vulnerability if your timingis just a bit off. I think I will look at thingsas more medium and/or long term trends but time will tell.
Unlike others who have a secret system, I have laid out my strategy in glorious details. These are just my thoughts -- let me know whatyou think and/or any other refinements that should be included.
As point of background, I am a mid career, mid level, gov worker with a couple of hundredthou in the TSP. The goal is to get things to appreciate to well over a million in the next 15 years. So both growth and capital preservation are my goal.
Here is my "investing logic" --
I use the free analysis tools on Yahoo for each of the funds and try and use objective criteria to make myallocation choices. Assuming I can't be right 100% of the time, I hope to be right more often than I am wrong.
Here is an example of the free Yahoo tool. You can enter the symbol for the TSP surrogate index (i.e. AGG, ^GPSC, EFA) to get the same info for the other funds.
example
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^DWCPF&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=p12,r14,f14,m26-12-9,w14&c=
For a three month period, I try to figure out which indicator has the best correlation to the up/down price of the particular index. You can take a look at the same charts and see if you can find the same patterns. (I print them out, take a ruler and mark a line down from the best buy and the best sell dates and see which indicater is "most predictive". )
For instance, right now it looks like the W%R looks like the best fit to each of the TSP funds. The MACD isn't bad either but not as close a correlation. Based on this my interpretation for the upcoming week is as follows:
The EAFE (I Fund surrogate) may be starting an uptrend and hopefully it will start on Monday. If you already have it, hold it and see. I wouldn't buy in until it drops further.
I wouldn't get into the AGG (F Fund surrogate) right now. It seems on a downward trend and will stay there a while.
The S&P 500 (C Fund surrogate) seems like it is on a downward trend. Again a hold recommendation. I have a lot in C right now hoping for the Santa Claus rally. Hopefully emotions and gut feelings won't cost those who are in C.
The DWCPF (S Fund surrogate) looks like it is in an upward trend. If I had money in G, I would be dumping it into S right now.
Currently 51C, 30S, and 19I. Depending on howthings go on Monday before noonEST, I may dump my I and goto something like Tom (70S 30 C). Like everyone else, I'll read Tom's comments because sometimes his gut read on things isn't too far off.
Also, my strategy is also changing. I find it too hard to try and time all these changes on a day to day basis. Everytime I have tried to catch the market, I have failed. The 12 noon ET deadline and being unable to make another change that will be effective until COB the next day is a "day and a half"window of vulnerability if your timingis just a bit off. I think I will look at thingsas more medium and/or long term trends but time will tell.
Unlike others who have a secret system, I have laid out my strategy in glorious details. These are just my thoughts -- let me know whatyou think and/or any other refinements that should be included.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
I think I will be paying close attention to your comments and allocation changes. You are doing a lot of hard work, and your contributions will be well received. Thanks, and Merry Christmas! <><
I think I will be paying close attention to your comments and allocation changes. You are doing a lot of hard work, and your contributions will be well received. Thanks, and Merry Christmas! <><
imported post
Awesome! Being a fan of the more technical, I am staying tuned.
Looking at C like this: (copy and paste link)
has me keeping my eye on it now. Perhaps using an MA and W%R together may be the ticket to keep from selling too quickly and having to buy back at a higher price yet avoid most of a dip.
Awesome! Being a fan of the more technical, I am staying tuned.
Looking at C like this: (copy and paste link)
Code:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e50,e10,e20,v&a=w14,r14,m26-12-9&chas me keeping my eye on it now. Perhaps using an MA and W%R together may be the ticket to keep from selling too quickly and having to buy back at a higher price yet avoid most of a dip.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Safetyguy wrote:
Yahoo hasgood charts that will give various technical analysis. I am in agreement with you, and have all the TSP funds set up on individual charts. Yahoo seems to be the easiest to set up and use.
There are other free sites with variations there of, i.e:
http://stockcharts.com/gallery?SPX
Good luck to you Safetyguy, keep us posted on what you figure out on the technical analysis, andthose indicators, how well they work.
Rgds
Spaf
Safetyguy wrote:
Yahoo hasgood charts that will give various technical analysis. I am in agreement with you, and have all the TSP funds set up on individual charts. Yahoo seems to be the easiest to set up and use.
There are other free sites with variations there of, i.e:
http://stockcharts.com/gallery?SPX
Good luck to you Safetyguy, keep us posted on what you figure out on the technical analysis, andthose indicators, how well they work.
Rgds
Spaf
Safetyguy
Member
imported post
Went 45C 45s 10I
Wanted to catch some of those gains in the I fund today.I am still nervous about some of the technical indicators. They are at a point where they can trend up or down. Why gamble in I when things look more solid in C and/or S.
Putting more into S -- we'll see if that is a good move or not.It looks good from a technical standpoint but todays' oscillating prices are of concern. All the talking heads think small caps have run their course and the big run up will be in the S&P. Hopefully they will be right (just for today) and the price of S will be down a bit at the end of the day.
I was going to park some cash in G until tomorrow or Wed (to buy whatever is low tomorrow or Wednesday). Since it now looks like 7 days between penny increases, the penny earned in G didn't come on Friday.Since the G will probably pick up a penny today and why buy the gain!! I'll gamble & stay fully invested in the stock funds.
Went 45C 45s 10I
Wanted to catch some of those gains in the I fund today.I am still nervous about some of the technical indicators. They are at a point where they can trend up or down. Why gamble in I when things look more solid in C and/or S.
Putting more into S -- we'll see if that is a good move or not.It looks good from a technical standpoint but todays' oscillating prices are of concern. All the talking heads think small caps have run their course and the big run up will be in the S&P. Hopefully they will be right (just for today) and the price of S will be down a bit at the end of the day.
I was going to park some cash in G until tomorrow or Wed (to buy whatever is low tomorrow or Wednesday). Since it now looks like 7 days between penny increases, the penny earned in G didn't come on Friday.Since the G will probably pick up a penny today and why buy the gain!! I'll gamble & stay fully invested in the stock funds.
Safetyguy
Member
imported post
No change – letting everything ride at 45C 45S 10I.
I did well yesterday moving half of what I had in I plus adding a bit more from C into the S fund– it was fortunate that I was able to sell high and buy low (I usually end up doing the opposite) . The stocks that hit the S fund the hardest seemed to be component makers for the Apple I Pod. I thought I Pods were selling like crazy so who knows. I think it was a blip for the S. The technical analysis still looks good for the next day or so.
Today, I debated taking everything out of “I” but I couldn’t figure out the best place to put it. I also played the opposite extreme – did I want to put more into “I”? While I don’t see it dipping down in price, I don’t see it increasing as dramatically as the C and the S can.
No change – letting everything ride at 45C 45S 10I.
I did well yesterday moving half of what I had in I plus adding a bit more from C into the S fund– it was fortunate that I was able to sell high and buy low (I usually end up doing the opposite) . The stocks that hit the S fund the hardest seemed to be component makers for the Apple I Pod. I thought I Pods were selling like crazy so who knows. I think it was a blip for the S. The technical analysis still looks good for the next day or so.
Today, I debated taking everything out of “I” but I couldn’t figure out the best place to put it. I also played the opposite extreme – did I want to put more into “I”? While I don’t see it dipping down in price, I don’t see it increasing as dramatically as the C and the S can.
Safetyguy
Member
imported post
Went 10 G, 45 C, 45 S to be effective COB today.
Dollar seems to be mixed on the currency markets. My concern is bond performance and the value of a buck is probably going up (and costing me if I stayed in I.) Hopefully I will be back up to 15.09 by COB.
Went to G and will buy whatever stock fund dips tomorrow – if not, I’ll just wait until next week.
Went 10 G, 45 C, 45 S to be effective COB today.
Dollar seems to be mixed on the currency markets. My concern is bond performance and the value of a buck is probably going up (and costing me if I stayed in I.) Hopefully I will be back up to 15.09 by COB.
Went to G and will buy whatever stock fund dips tomorrow – if not, I’ll just wait until next week.
Safetyguy
Member
imported post
Safetyguy wrote:
I am concerned that the Asian markets are open on Friday and the bond markets are supposed to be open for half of the day. There is a lot of time between noon EST on Thursday and COB on Monday. Does anyone have any thoughts about how to turn this into an advantage?
I also saw in another thread that someone put everything in G todayhoping for a drop on Thursday to move back in. This is a very interesting play. If things areup on Thursday (say 1%), it may be a smart move to go 100% G and wait for the next big down day (which could be coming next week.) I have been burned on this "TSP Day Trading" strategy but will consider such a move in the morning.
Safetyguy wrote:
Wow -- the I fund at 15.14 did better than my expectation. I now have the 10% that was in I shares parked in G.I will move it into whatever drops the most tomorrow. All the indicators for C, S, and I look good however -- C and S look stronger when looking at the W%R.
I am concerned that the Asian markets are open on Friday and the bond markets are supposed to be open for half of the day. There is a lot of time between noon EST on Thursday and COB on Monday. Does anyone have any thoughts about how to turn this into an advantage?
I also saw in another thread that someone put everything in G todayhoping for a drop on Thursday to move back in. This is a very interesting play. If things areup on Thursday (say 1%), it may be a smart move to go 100% G and wait for the next big down day (which could be coming next week.) I have been burned on this "TSP Day Trading" strategy but will consider such a move in the morning.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
imported post
Safetyguy, your allocation isn't what I expected based on your name. You are very aggressive. :shock:
Looks like you have put a lot of thought into what you are doing. I look forward to following what you are doing.
"find it too hard to try and time all these changes on a day to day basis"
I agree with you completely. Whenever I've tried to get too cute, I've missed by a day or two and gone backward.
Safetyguy, your allocation isn't what I expected based on your name. You are very aggressive. :shock:
Looks like you have put a lot of thought into what you are doing. I look forward to following what you are doing.
"find it too hard to try and time all these changes on a day to day basis"
I agree with you completely. Whenever I've tried to get too cute, I've missed by a day or two and gone backward.
smine
Member
imported post
I moved 50% to the I fund yesterday. It looks like the EFA markets are up last time I checked this AM. They also are open Friday whereas the USA is closed. Now I need to decide to take my gains and go to safe G or put 100% in the I fund :shock: I may just take the gamble and do it!!
I moved 50% to the I fund yesterday. It looks like the EFA markets are up last time I checked this AM. They also are open Friday whereas the USA is closed. Now I need to decide to take my gains and go to safe G or put 100% in the I fund :shock: I may just take the gamble and do it!!
Safetyguy
Member
imported post
Just went 10 F 45 C 45 S (12/23/04 before noon EST) for the long weekend.
I went into F because it is down -- a complete gamble on my part. Maybe it will be up a bit on Monday and makea move then and collect a little profit.
I is up because the dollar is going lower. Who knows what will happen in the Asian markets tomorrow and maybe the dollar will be up on Monday. Since safety is managing risk, I will stick with the US markets for now.
For those in I, good luck and I hope it works out for you. I'll probably join you next week.
Just went 10 F 45 C 45 S (12/23/04 before noon EST) for the long weekend.
I went into F because it is down -- a complete gamble on my part. Maybe it will be up a bit on Monday and makea move then and collect a little profit.
I is up because the dollar is going lower. Who knows what will happen in the Asian markets tomorrow and maybe the dollar will be up on Monday. Since safety is managing risk, I will stick with the US markets for now.
For those in I, good luck and I hope it works out for you. I'll probably join you next week.
Safetyguy
Member
imported post
Just went 30C 50S 20I on 12/27/04 @ 0732 EST (before noon deadline, effectivefor 12/28/04)
Went into the I fund because dollar is down again. TheFTSE 100 is up 0.22% and the Nikkei is about even now. Iwas guessingthat I share price will drop a bittoday because of the tragic earthquake/tsunami but so far the markets haven't reflected this yet.
The rise/fall of the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 4500 still match the W%Rs pretty well and is telling me to stay in both. The correlation isn't so good for the EAFE -- it seems that the slope of the W%R line is what is indicating buys and sells (if you exclude the declining value of the dollar). Right now itlooks like asell-- at least for the short term. SinceI don't have any I, itseems the time to buy a little. The entire increase I see by the end of the year may becausethe dollarmightrise to$1.40 to the euro by year's end. I'll gamble 20% and hope I don't get burned by the chop.
I'll look at how things are shaping up later this morning, so stay tune for any late minute changes.
Just went 30C 50S 20I on 12/27/04 @ 0732 EST (before noon deadline, effectivefor 12/28/04)
Went into the I fund because dollar is down again. TheFTSE 100 is up 0.22% and the Nikkei is about even now. Iwas guessingthat I share price will drop a bittoday because of the tragic earthquake/tsunami but so far the markets haven't reflected this yet.
The rise/fall of the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 4500 still match the W%Rs pretty well and is telling me to stay in both. The correlation isn't so good for the EAFE -- it seems that the slope of the W%R line is what is indicating buys and sells (if you exclude the declining value of the dollar). Right now itlooks like asell-- at least for the short term. SinceI don't have any I, itseems the time to buy a little. The entire increase I see by the end of the year may becausethe dollarmightrise to$1.40 to the euro by year's end. I'll gamble 20% and hope I don't get burned by the chop.
I'll look at how things are shaping up later this morning, so stay tune for any late minute changes.
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