S Fund

[nasa1974]

If they are looking to do it now would be the time. September the last two years were not good for the "S" or "C" funds. "S" -3.04/2020 and -4.00/2021. "C" -3.80/2020 and -4.65/2021.

 

[rangerray]

That 2050-ish level is still 10% above current levels (1845).
I can't imagine anyone sitting on the sidelines right now, with so much room to move higher before the next major resistance level.:thinking:

I've been thinking about this comment ever since you said it. I think you're on to something, but at this point it would be nice for a slight pause. Though waiting for a pause is missing an opportunity.

 

[retread]

I've been thinking about this comment ever since you said it. I think you're on to something, but at this point it would be nice for a slight pause. Though waiting for a pause is missing an opportunity.

This episode reminds me of April 2020 after the covid low. I was slow to jump in (like now) because I was convinced it would drop as soon as I got in. That is exactly what happened several times this year before June. It was starting to look good, so I added more, and it immediately dropped

 

[nasa1974]

The "S" fund finished at 0.22%. I'll take that every day.

 

[tsptalk]

The "S" fund finished at 0.22%. I'll take that every day.

That would be more than +50% for the year.

 

[TommyIV]

The S-fund is on track to record its fifth straight day of gains today. The last time that happened was a six day stretch of gains between July 27th, 2022, through August 3rd, 2022. In those six days the S-fund gained 6.97%.

In the last four days the S-fund is up 5.47%, and the DWCPF, the index the S-fund mimics, is up an additional 0.75% intraday today.

 

[nasa1974]

Go "S" fund. Still 6 figures down from my high in November 2021.

 

[TommyIV]

Will the 200-day EMA protect the S-fund price?

Today the DWCPF (S-fund) lost 1.55%. Leading up to today, everyone invested in the S-fund has enjoyed the ride. The top 100 2023 returns among TSP Talk AutoTracker members are all 100% invested in the S-fund. But were today's losses a warning sign that the January climb its coming to its end? There will be a lot of catalysts for price movement the rest of this week with many earnings to come and the FOMC meeting that finishes Wednesday.

It is pretty clear that the FOMC will raise rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, this will the eighth straight FOMC meeting where rates were raised but the second in a row where the amount is decreased. What will get the market moving is what Jerome Powell has to say in the press conference that follows. Inflation is calming down along with the economy, so it seems the Fed has so far done their job. The worry is what will happen if they let off the brake. Despite wrongfully diagnosing the first signs of high inflation as transitory, they are now questioning whether the decline in inflation is also transitory; this would mean there is a need to continue tightening monetary policy.

Currently, more than 28% of allocations are in the S-fund among non-premium TSP Talk AutoTracker users. That makes it the most popular of the TSP stock funds. But that is down from 34% at this time last year. Members are finding it difficult to trust this market with the action of 2022 still in the rear-view mirror. One of the technical advantages that might bring peace to those invested and to those who have recently been buying is the 200-day EMA. The DWCPF (S-fund) traded below its 200-day EMA for the entirety of 2022. Now it has closed above it for the sixth straight trading session. If it can continue to remain above this moving average price, I think more investors will be willing to jump in.

 

[JTH]

Yea I'd love me some S-Fund January gains, problem is, by the time I'm ready to go in, it's ready to go out

Seriously, I do like that the smaller caps are less tied to the USD exchange rate since they have less overseas exposure. I think if we had more IFT's I'd be willing to take more risk, if I were 20 years younger, I'd be buying with a fistful of dollars.

 

[tsptalk]

Boom! The S-fund is quickly nearing the summer highs.

 

[nasa1974]

Let's hope it doesn't follow suite and fall to the October 2022 low. :banana:

 

[Bullitt]

From Lowry's

Recent improvement in small-cap price indexes has led to gains in various measures of internal market strength, but thus far that progress has been inconclusive. Lowry’s OCO Segmented Adv-Dec Lines offer perspective - while large-cap breadth approaches an upside break, mid- and small-caps remain in downtrends.

Ideally, breakouts in both the OCO Mid- and Small-Cap Adv-Dec Lines above their respective August 2022 highs would confirm a market trend change to the upside. These observations reinforce the idea of the “mega-cap mirage,” which may be prematurely projecting the illusion of a new bull market, as it is historically small-cap stocks that lead the charge from major bottoms. However, if smaller-cap stocks continue to rise, and the Lowry indicators change course, the weight of evidence could shift in favor of an improbable long-term advance.

https://www.lowryresearch.com/

 

[TommyIV]

Wow, after two negative reversals in a row, the DWCPF (S-fund) finally rallied through the day, well it gave back some in the last 15 minutes. I was really looking for the chart to fall more to test that 50-day and 200-day crossover price before jumping into the S-fund. From a technical standpoint, today's rally was unexpected for me. It makes me wonder if the reversal will come tomorrow or if the bulls really do have the upper hand in the middle of the summer.

Maybe I should have paid better attention to the seasonality chart at the bottom of the Market Commentary. It saw this coming.

The S-fund is likely to receive a return around 1.7% for today.

 

[tsptalk]

Watch the dollar on Wednesday. It looks like it could bounce back and make Tuesday's rally a trap, although it feels like the bulls are taking back momentum.

 

[TommyIV]

What's happening on the S-fund chart. Is this a Cup and Handle Pattern?

 

[tsptalk]

I'd say yes. A smaller one so any breakout would be commensurate with the size of the C&H, but it looks good for the short-term if it plays out as they tend to do.

 

[retread]

One could argue there is a cup and handle on TNX as well. Since March DWCPF and TNX look similar with a large cup and handle pattern evident on both. Strange.

 

[tsptalk]

The S-fund is in an interesting situation with a double bottom at the 200-day EMA where we saw two positive reversal days in that area, but there's also a clear bear flag with the 50-day EMA looming above as possible resistance.

There's open gaps above and below.

I think this may end up bearish but a run up to 1775 - 1800 could still occur. If it can get above 1800, then the bull case gets more credible.

 

[jonfresno]

To paraphrase Weatherweenie, is the S fund ever allowed to not go down anymore??

Also, does anyone know where you can get some fundamental data on this index? I can find P/Es for S&P 500 and a few others, but I can't find it for the completion index.

Fascinates me how this fund hit around 2400 over a year ago, then lost close to 40% of its value last year, and is currently sitting about 30% from those highs.

 

[tsptalk]

There are a few completion index type of funds that are all basically the same. Here's some limited info on VXF (Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund):

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXF?p=VXF

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXF/profile?p=VXF

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXF/holdings?p=VXF