S Fund

It just blew through that 671 level, and is now at the 668, where their is some limited resistance.

If it holds here, we are looking much like what last February 26 through 28th big drop. Three down sessions, then a pause, followed by more down sessions ahead when it breaks below the 50 day moving average.

This is what it looks like on the chart- look back at end of February, then look at today's move, and see the similarities:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p69175047198

Not at all unexpceted after last weeks big bullish sentitment survey.
 
Closes out the day down -1.90%, at around 667 according to Yahoo, 672 according to stockchart.com. Not sure which, but in either case, it is significant.

That 668=670 bar is right above- on the cusp of the 50 day moving average.

Again, if we repeat February 26-28ths pattern, we will hold flat tomorrow, maybe even three days worth, and then go down another healthy amount.

If we do NOT repeat February, then we have hit the floor today, and it's up ahead.

Seeing as it fell as hard as it did this afternoon, I'm thinking more like we still have more downside ahead. Especially seeing it looks like it's still headed down on the trace at the close.

We'll just have to see what happens.
 
In this kind of interest rate environment, high rates, aren't small caps more likely to underperform? The cost of business, borrowing money, increases for smaller companies.

Closes out the day down -1.90%, at around 667 according to Yahoo, 672 according to stockchart.com. Not sure which, but in either case, it is significant.

That 668=670 bar is right above- on the cusp of the 50 day moving average.

Again, if we repeat February 26-28ths pattern, we will hold flat tomorrow, maybe even three days worth, and then go down another healthy amount.

If we do NOT repeat February, then we have hit the floor today, and it's up ahead.

Seeing as it fell as hard as it did this afternoon, I'm thinking more like we still have more downside ahead. Especially seeing it looks like it's still headed down on the trace at the close.

We'll just have to see what happens.
 
just heard a talking head on bloomberg radio say he was suprised to see the low volume today before a rebalancing day (tomorrow's R2k action)... he reluctantly said today's bounce looked like a dead cat bounce although he doesn't like using that term.

But, why would he expect big volume the day before rebalancing? Wouldn't the more profitable day to buy into small caps be the actual day of rebalancing (tomorrow, not today)?
 
Tomorrow will be a heavy volume day - they will also be rebalancing the Russell 1000 large cap index along with the R2K.
 
Steve and Frank are both liking smallcaps!



Todd Market Forecast
by Steve Todd



ETF traders are long the utility ETF, symbol XLU from 40.35. Move
the stop back to 38.50. Also, on Thursday, buy the Russell 2000 ETF,
symbol IWM at the opening. Place a 1 full point stop underneath.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html



Bullish Reversal For Ishares Russell 2000 (AMEX: IWM)
Shares of exchange-traded fund Ishares Russell 2000 (AMEX: IWM) had a huge rally on Wednesday. Ishares Russell 2000, with positions in such heavily traded stocks as Plains Exploration & Production Company (NYSE: PXP), Joy Global Inc (NASDAQ: JOYG) and Crown Holdings (NYSE: CCK), has been the weak link in the current market, but on Wednesday, it had a bullish outside reversal day. A very bullish indicator.

Ishares Russell 2000, which closed Wednesday at $83.59, had intra-day lows below the prior days trading range, intra-day highs above the prior day’s trading range, and a close at the day’s highs as well as above the prior five day’s closing highs.

Look for higher highs and a run for Ishares Russell 2000’s rally highs in coming days and weeks.

http://timing.typepad.com/timer/
 
The rally is confirmed in Tech Sector. CSCO DESTROYED it's 5 year resistance at the 29 level today on nearly 80% higher volume. INTC, another bellweather, is flying high as well after breaking from a downward price channel a few weeks ago.
 
The rally is confirmed in Tech Sector. CSCO DESTROYED it's 5 year resistance at the 29 level today on nearly 80% higher volume. INTC, another bellweather, is flying high as well after breaking from a downward price channel a few weeks ago.

While a 1.39% daily move in the S fund is nothing to sneeze at, it did lag the 1.91% move in the C.
 
Whats the deal with the S fund? It's still in the red and the C is up over 1%. Its been lagging for a while now.
 
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