S-fund Challenge! Guesses

[ebbnflow]

S-fund Challenge!

I would like to try an experiment on this thread to see who can outperform the S-fund. Between 4:00 - 7:00 PM ET, we can give our best calcumalated or edumacated guesses on how the S-fund will end up tomorrow -- up or down. Anyone can participate and I'll keep a running tab on each one's winning percentage. You don't have to enter everyday, but get at least a month's worth of entries to qualify for title of S-fund King!

Partipants (Mar. 26, 2014 start): S-fund (0/0), and ebb (0/0), so far.

By the way, the ebbcharts had a pattern 7/red-grn-grn (Win Percentage: 52%) today in the S-fund, so I'm not that surprised to see it down -0.03%. Tomorrow, we have pattern 8/red-grn-red (WP: C 56%, S 52%, I 57%), so it could be another bad day for the S-fund. Remember, any number that falls below our 7-yr. S&P 500 gauge (WP: 54.9%) means selling pressure. And, anything above it means upward bias.

My guess for Mar. 26, 2014: S-fund down.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

3/26/2014 - Up

 

[CrabClaw]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

3/26/2014 - Up

yep

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Let me change the time of entry for guesses to regular market hours -- 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET.
A guess of up means you have a buy signal.
A guess of down means you have a signal to short.
No guess means you have a cash position (won't count).

 

[JTH]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Down

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Down

Futures are up a little, and you're going with down S-fund, so no harm done. You're in, JTH. We can wave the time limit for entry as long as US futures are not up or down that much. It's just a guideline.

Remember, if you don't post a guess, that means you're in cash for the next day and it won't count in the tally. To make it easy, you can even say up or down the whole week or month.

 

[nnuut]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

UP!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

3/26/2014 - Up

I guess Birchtree is on vacation...

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I would like to try an experiment on this thread to see who can outperform the S-fund. Between 4:00 - 7:00 PM ET, we can give our best calcumalated or edumacated guesses on how the S-fund will end up tomorrow -- up or down. Anyone can participate and I'll keep a running tab on each one's winning percentage. You don't have to enter everyday, but get at least a month's worth of entries to qualify for title of S-fund King!

Partipants (Mar. 26, 2014 start): S-fund (0/0), and ebb (0/0), so far.

By the way, the ebbcharts had a pattern 7/red-grn-grn (Win Percentage: 52%) today in the S-fund, so I'm not that surprised to see it down -0.03%. Tomorrow, we have pattern 8/red-grn-red (WP: C 56%, S 52%, I 57%), so it could be another bad day for the S-fund. Remember, any number that falls below our 7-yr. S&P 500 gauge (WP: 54.9%) means selling pressure. And, anything above it means upward bias.

My guess for Mar. 26, 2014: S-fund down.

Pattern 8/red-grn-red (WP: C 56%, S 52%, I 57%) may look strange with the C and I-fund having a buy signal while the S-fund has a short signal. But that's the pattern's signature and it shows that it's weak in the S-fund.

Right now, the C and I-fund are up, while the S-find is down. We don't know if the funds will end like this, but there is definitely more weakness in the S-fund, as expected by the pattern.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I would like to try an experiment on this thread to see who can outperform the S-fund. Between 4:00 - 7:00 PM ET, we can give our best calcumalated or edumacated guesses on how the S-fund will end up tomorrow -- up or down. Anyone can participate and I'll keep a running tab on each one's winning percentage. You don't have to enter everyday, but get at least a month's worth of entries to qualify for title of S-fund King!

Partipants (Mar. 26, 2014 start): S-fund (0/0), and ebb (0/0), so far.

By the way, the ebbcharts had a pattern 7/red-grn-grn (Win Percentage: 52%) today in the S-fund, so I'm not that surprised to see it down -0.03%. Tomorrow, we have pattern 8/red-grn-red (WP: C 56%, S 52%, I 57%), so it could be another bad day for the S-fund. Remember, any number that falls below our 7-yr. S&P 500 gauge (WP: 54.9%) means selling pressure. And, anything above it means upward bias.

My guess for Mar. 26, 2014: S-fund down.

Let's see if I got this straight. Tuesday's red-green-green showed an overall positive return of 52% with the C fund itself positive 54% of the time, the S fund 53% and the I fund 49%. By your own definition, anything over 52% would suggest a bias towards a positive trading day and anything under 52% woulds suggest a negative day. Yet, you say you expected the S fund to be down yesterday? Intertesting. And what happened with the I fund? It wasn't down?

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Let's see if I got this straight. Tuesday's red-green-green showed an overall positive return of 52% with the C fund itself positive 54% of the time, the S fund 53% and the I fund 49%. By your own definition, anything over 52% would suggest a bias towards a positive trading day and anything under 52% woulds suggest a negative day. Yet, you say you expected the S fund to be down yesterday? Intertesting. And what happened with the I fund? It wasn't down?

Oh wait, the S&P gauge number is 54.9%. So that would have meant selling pressure in all the funds yesterday, no?

 

[Cactus]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

If I understand this correctly, we are saying where we expect the S Fund to be at tomorrows (3/27) close.

Down.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Let's see if I got this straight. Tuesday's red-green-green showed an overall positive return of 52% with the C fund itself positive 54% of the time, the S fund 53% and the I fund 49%. By your own definition, anything over 52% would suggest a bias towards a positive trading day and anything under 52% woulds suggest a negative day. Yet, you say you expected the S fund to be down yesterday? Intertesting. And what happened with the I fund? It wasn't down?

Oh wait, the S&P gauge number is 54.9%. So that would have meant selling pressure in all the funds yesterday, no?

Intrepid, you catch on quickly, the S&P gauge is not at 52% as you previously stated. That's right, the forecast was right only in the S-fund. Selling pressure in the C and I-fund failed to materialize. But do keep in mind that even if we have a high win percentage of say 61% for a pattern 5/red-red-red (the most bullish red pattern) in the C-fund, it still has a fail rate of 39%. It's all about getting an edge through knowledge and information.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Intrepid, you catch on quickly, the S&P gauge is not at 52% as you previously stated. That's right, the forecast was right only in the S-fund. Selling pressure in the C and I-fund failed to materialize. But do keep in mind that even if we have a high win percentage of say 61% for a pattern 5/red-red-red (the most bullish red pattern) in the C-fund, it still has a fail rate of 39%. It's all about getting an edge through knowledge and information.

Well, I don't know what sort of edge 54% is compared to 50/50, unless your the "house" in Vegas, or what help it is for TSP, but good luck with that. If you can get a bunch of premium service members to start posting their moves here, then that might give you an edge to know when our next IFT is though.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Well, I don't know what sort of edge 54% is compared to 50/50, unless your the "house" in Vegas, or what help it is for TSP, but good luck with that. If you can get a bunch of premium service members to start posting their moves here, then that might give you an edge to know when our next IFT is though.

You're kidding, right? If you're winning 54% of your bets in Vegas, that means you're a winner. For your information, the break even winning percentage in sports betting is 53%.

One of the main purposes of the ebbcharts is to filter out noise. That is why the ebbcharts only deal with evidence-based stats. You won't see stats on head and shoulder, bear flags, or whatnot patterns. Random walk...I refuse to take that path.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

You're kidding, right? If you're winning 54% of your bets in Vegas, that means you're a winner. For your information, the break even winning percentage in sports betting is 53%.

One of the main purposes of the ebbcharts is to filter out noise. That is why the ebbcharts only deal with evidence-based stats. You won't see stats on head and shoulder, bear flags, or whatnot patterns. Random walk...I refuse to take that path.

If you are referring to my system, then you don't know what you are talking, for your information........... I guess returns speak for themselves. Good luck over at that other site.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

You're kidding, right? If you're winning 54% of your bets in Vegas, that means you're a winner. For your information, the break even winning percentage in sports betting is 53%.

One of the main purposes of the ebbcharts is to filter out noise. That is why the ebbcharts only deal with evidence-based stats. You won't see stats on head and shoulder, bear flags, or whatnot patterns. Random walk...I refuse to take that path.

Just an FYI, if only 54% of my trades were winners, I wouldn't be a premium service here anymore either.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

You're kidding, right? If you're winning 54% of your bets in Vegas, that means you're a winner. For your information, the break even winning percentage in sports betting is 53%.

One of the main purposes of the ebbcharts is to filter out noise. That is why the ebbcharts only deal with evidence-based stats. You won't see stats on head and shoulder, bear flags, or whatnot patterns. Random walk...I refuse to take that path.

"Ladies, you're both pretty...":laugh:

Talking winning percentage by itself is like discussing the space-time continuum and leaving out time.

One can win 60% of the time, but lose twice as much cash per trade as they win and still be an overall loser.

Relatedly, one can win only 40% of the time, but win twice as much cash per trade as they lose, and still be an overall winner.

So one can't meaningfully say where a "break-even" point is without knowing more (than just the 'winning' percentage) about the betting strategy.

It gets deeper, but I'll simply mention the well-known phrase:

Correlation is not necessarily evidence of causation.

Anyway,

Why not just pull out the measuring tape and see how they measure up:laugh::

How do the returns of the 'timer' system compare to those of the 'chart' system? Are the returns even made available?

 

[JTH]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Tomorrow will be either up or down or neither

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Just an FYI, if only 54% of my trades were winners, I wouldn't be a premium service here anymore either.

Funny. Who says you're winning 54% of your trades? You should be winning at least 55% (S&P 500 win percentage since 2007) of your trades. The word for today is...random walk...you'll be the last to know if you're walking on one. :laugh: