RunningFool's Account Talk

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Re: RunningFool Account Talk

For the week:
43 accounts lost more than 5%
22 accounts lost between 4% and 5%
22 accounts lost between 3% and 4% (me included:( )
21 accounts lost between 2% and 3%
15 accounts lost between 1% and 2%
 
Re: How We Eluded the Bear in 2000

RunningFool said:
http://www.successful-investment.com/articles12.htm
Click to expand...

RunningFool, I just did a test to that claim made in the article about how a buy and hold approach would have turned $10 from 1928 to $10,957 today. I just cannot get that number. I wonder what index they used to determine that.

In 1928, the lowest price that the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit was $191.33.

Let's use a starting price of $191 and a closing price of $13,000 for the Dow. That's over 6700% return on the initial investment. That means the beginning $10 would now be just over $670 using a Dow of 13000, nowhere near $10,000 claimed in that article. Even if there was a typo, and he meant to use the year 1898, where the Dow was at $42, the original $10 would now be just under $3100.
 
Re: RunningFool Account Talk

Cotton Pickin Monkey Indicator for 03-06
Running Monkey.............F
Jogging Monkey .............F
Fast Walking Monkey ......G
Slow Walking Monkey .....F
Strolling Monkey.............F
Crawling Monkey.............F

Squiggly Line indicator F+ C- S- I-

Staying in the F for now.
 
Re: How We Eluded the Bear in 2000

fabijo said:
RunningFool, I just did a test to that claim made in the article about how a buy and hold approach would have turned $10 from 1928 to $10,957 today. I just cannot get that number. I wonder what index they used to determine that.

In 1928, the lowest price that the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit was $191.33.

Let's use a starting price of $191 and a closing price of $13,000 for the Dow. That's over 6700% return on the initial investment. That means the beginning $10 would now be just over $670 using a Dow of 13000, nowhere near $10,000 claimed in that article. Even if there was a typo, and he meant to use the year 1898, where the Dow was at $42, the original $10 would now be just under $3100.
Click to expand...

fabijo

Well I was just grabbing something off the internet that seemed to indicate that avoiding down markets was a major determinate of maximizing your returns in the market ( which is the main reason I went looking for some information on how to avoid riding down with the market after last May and found this site). I guess one should try to verify as much as possible anything one post here, my bad. But saying that I would like to point out that your correction actually make the writers point even more so. Of course if one point is called into question all points may be called into question. :confused: Well anyway thanks for your reply and contribution to this site. Because of you and all the other great folks who participate in this group I have been able to gain greater insight to developing some sort of marketing strategy which I totally lacked previous to coming to this site. It is such a helpless feeling when the market falls and not knowing what to do or when to do it. Because of the wealth of information here I have been able to develop a plan (a very simple one) that suits me and allows me to avoid that helpless, deer in the headlights feeling. When all else fails I can simple go to my plan and follow it. Sure I will still have bad days (2/27) but when I began to panic I was able to follow my plan and moved out of harms way on 3\2. As some wise soul said "If you consistently follow a sound plan, it will all work out in the long term"
Wow this sounds like the great American Novel. Maybe I should have started out with " It was a dark and stormy night....":):)
 
Re: RunningFool Account Talk

If you use a yearly return of between 9-10% compounded over 79 years, the $10K+ amount seems reasonable.
 
Re: RunningFool Account Talk

rokid said:
If you use a yearly return of between 9-10% compounded over 79 years, the $10K+ amount seems reasonable.
Click to expand...

Yup. Looks like that is exactly what they did. I guess it is false to assume that you will get that much over time.
 
Re: RunningFool Account Talk

Damn! I wish I had 79 more years! Is this adjusted for inflation?:confused:
 
Re: RunningFool Account Talk

When they tell you to expect an average annualized return of 9 - 10 %, they are usually expecting that you are adding money regularly. I guess it doesn't always work if you are talking about a one time purchase.
 
Re: RunningFool Account Talk

It also includes re-investment of dividends. The DOW 13,000 ignores 79 years of dividends.
 
Re: RunningFool Account Talk

I have never noticed it before but is F Fund subject to FV??:confused: It was down today but shows 0 change.
 
Re: RunningFool Account Talk

Cotton Pickin Monkey Indicator for 03-07
Running Monkey.............G,F
Jogging Monkey .............F
Fast Walking Monkey ......F
Slow Walking Monkey .....G
Strolling Monkey.............F
Crawling Monkey.............F

Squiggly Line indicator F+ C- S- I-

Looks like the markets may bounce tomorrow, but I will probably stay with the monkeys in F. Waiting for an up trend.
 
Re: RunningFool Account Talk

Thanks for the info, fabijo. Think I will get a jump on the monkeys as they will be jumping on I tomorrow and go ahead and put a portion in. 80% F 20% I.
 
Re: RunningFool Account Talk

Cotton Pickin Monkey Indicator for 03-08
Running Monkey.............I
Jogging Monkey .............I
Fast Walking Monkey ......F
Slow Walking Monkey .....F
Strolling Monkey.............G
Crawling Monkey.............F

Squiggly Line indicator F+ C- S- I-

Not sure which way to go today. Will watch and see which way the wind blows this morning.:) Thinking about going more into I and possibly C or S.
 
Re: RunningFool Account Talk

Cotton Pickin Monkey Indicator for 03-09
Running Monkey.............I
Jogging Monkey .............I
Fast Walking Monkey ......I
Slow Walking Monkey .....F
Strolling Monkey.............F
Crawling Monkey.............F

Squiggly Line indicator F+ C- S- I-


The monkeys are split but the Squiggly Line indicator seems to indicate a possible weakness in stocks the next couple of days. Due to the uncertainty of the markets, I am going back to the frog pond. 100% F.:)
 
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