Ruffryder's Account Talk

Hello ALL!!

I have been reading alot of post and threads and seen some account information. I figured that I would share a little of my knowledge with everyone and explain the method to my madness which has given me a PIP of %25+.

My allocations are as Follows and I will explain my reasons in depth. You feedback and critisim is wanted as well as questions.

G Fund (Government Securities) 40%: The G Fund invests in short-term U.S. treasuries. Principal is guaranteed

Reason: Your money here is guaranteed a return. Meaning you will never lose what you put in. The "Monthly" return rate varies from .0156 cents per share to .0257 per share. So it ALWAYS earns which is why it is Guaranteed.

F Fund (Barclays) 0%: The F Fund is invested in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund. When yields move lower, bonds go up in price and the F fund goes up in value. When yields move higher, bonds go down in price and the F fund goes down in value.

Reason: Your return is based off of the US debt. As we all know, it is currently like 13 Trillion and rising. What they dont tell you is the US pulls from the intrest of bonds to continue lending to consumers. If the consumer doesnt pay back or defaults, it affects the market. If you want to lose 5% or more of your contribution, then this is the way to go. If not, stay out of it until Apr-May of next year.

C Fund (Common Stock) 30%: The C Fund invests in the Barclays Equity Index Fund which tracks the S&P 500, the 500 largest U.S. companies being traded. The S&P 500 stock market index, maintained by Standard & Poor's, comprises 500 large-cap American companies covering about 75% of the American equity market by capitalization.

Reason: Some of the 500 largest companies are Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Adobe Systems, American Express, Bank of America Corp., Boeing Company, Charles Schwab, Cisco Systems, just to name a few. If you watch alot of these companies you will see that more than half of them have great climbing rates.

S Fund (Small Cap) 15%: The objective of the S Fund is to match the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index and those companies not included in the S&P 500.

Reason: This fund focuses mainly on small business or LLCs which make up the entire stock market. Where one fails, one succeeds. This stock market cap is an area you have to watch closely as it is high risk. So I put less than a 1/4 of my contrubutions here. The up side is, when is does rise, it rises fast simular to the I fund.

I Fund (The international fund) 15%: This is comprised of all the stocks overseas and most recently has the strongest tie to the Euro. The countries debt is also a contributing factor.

Reason: This stock is the money maker and loser. If you are wise and watch closely, it has its peek during certain portions of the month. It varies from 2$ to 5$ in either direction and is considered a high risk option.

My Strategy

Lets start with the first of any given month. My allocations are distrubuted as listed above. 40/0/30/15/15. Between the 1st and on or about the 23rd, the C, S and I funds are relatively low from the previous month. A great time to buy in. In my research on each all of the funds involved (to include the actual stock markets) the is a peak for the month that lasts for about 3 days. This is where you earn your money. At the end of the 3rd day (on or about the 26th) I do an interfund transfer of 100% to the G fund, banking the interest I have earned during those days. This raises my invested earnings for the month and secures the interest I have accumulated. 2 days after the IFT I re-distribute my allocations again the same way as before (40/0/30/15/15) because the share prices have dropped since the IFT to the G fund. Meaning I have more money but I am relatively buying back shares for the initial price.

I have done this for the last 4 years and have always maintained a %25+ PIP. My highest PIP ever was 38.72%.

If you have questions or comments, please feel free to ask or tell.


Chris
 
Hello ALL!!

I have been reading alot of post and threads and seen some account information. I figured that I would share a little of my knowledge with everyone and explain the method to my madness which has given me a PIP of %25+.

My allocations are as Follows and I will explain my reasons in depth. You feedback and critisim is wanted as well as questions.

G Fund (Government Securities) 40%: The G Fund invests in short-term U.S. treasuries. Principal is guaranteed

Reason: Your money here is guaranteed a return. Meaning you will never lose what you put in. The "Monthly" return rate varies from .0156 cents per share to .0257 per share. So it ALWAYS earns which is why it is Guaranteed.

F Fund (Barclays) 0%: The F Fund is invested in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund. When yields move lower, bonds go up in price and the F fund goes up in value. When yields move higher, bonds go down in price and the F fund goes down in value.

Reason: Your return is based off of the US debt. As we all know, it is currently like 13 Trillion and rising. What they dont tell you is the US pulls from the intrest of bonds to continue lending to consumers. If the consumer doesnt pay back or defaults, it affects the market. If you want to lose 5% or more of your contribution, then this is the way to go. If not, stay out of it until Apr-May of next year.

C Fund (Common Stock) 30%: The C Fund invests in the Barclays Equity Index Fund which tracks the S&P 500, the 500 largest U.S. companies being traded. The S&P 500 stock market index, maintained by Standard & Poor's, comprises 500 large-cap American companies covering about 75% of the American equity market by capitalization.

Reason: Some of the 500 largest companies are Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Adobe Systems, American Express, Bank of America Corp., Boeing Company, Charles Schwab, Cisco Systems, just to name a few. If you watch alot of these companies you will see that more than half of them have great climbing rates.

S Fund (Small Cap) 15%: The objective of the S Fund is to match the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index and those companies not included in the S&P 500.

Reason: This fund focuses mainly on small business or LLCs which make up the entire stock market. Where one fails, one succeeds. This stock market cap is an area you have to watch closely as it is high risk. So I put less than a 1/4 of my contrubutions here. The up side is, when is does rise, it rises fast simular to the I fund.

I Fund (The international fund) 15%: This is comprised of all the stocks overseas and most recently has the strongest tie to the Euro. The countries debt is also a contributing factor.

Reason: This stock is the money maker and loser. If you are wise and watch closely, it has its peek during certain portions of the month. It varies from 2$ to 5$ in either direction and is considered a high risk option.

My Strategy

Lets start with the first of any given month. My allocations are distrubuted as listed above. 40/0/30/15/15. Between the 1st and on or about the 23rd, the C, S and I funds are relatively low from the previous month. A great time to buy in. In my research on each all of the funds involved (to include the actual stock markets) the is a peak for the month that lasts for about 3 days. This is where you earn your money. At the end of the 3rd day (on or about the 26th) I do an interfund transfer of 100% to the G fund, banking the interest I have earned during those days. This raises my invested earnings for the month and secures the interest I have accumulated. 2 days after the IFT I re-distribute my allocations again the same way as before (40/0/30/15/15) because the share prices have dropped since the IFT to the G fund. Meaning I have more money but I am relatively buying back shares for the initial price.

I have done this for the last 4 years and have always maintained a %25+ PIP. My highest PIP ever was 38.72%.

If you have questions or comments, please feel free to ask or tell.


Chris

RR,

I hope you realize what you have said here. If this where all true you would be Top Dog at tsp.com overall. These are very impressive #'s.
How did you do in 2008 ? Just Curious.

The Tracker takes no prisoners. Welcome Aboard ! :)
 
Poolman

I do realize this and have posted my annual PIP return statement for the last 3 years below as proof. I havent been here long enough (3 days) to be considered the "Top Dawg" but I hope that I can claim that title soon. ;)

Your 2009 Personal Investment Performance 27.94%
Your 2008 Personal Investment Performance 29.36%
Your 2007 Personal Investment Performance 25.72%

Chris


RR,

I hope you realize what you have said here. If this where all true you would be Top Dog at tsp.com overall. These are very impressive #'s.
How did you do in 2008 ? Just Curious.

The Tracker takes no prisoners. Welcome Aboard ! :)
 
So for the 3 days between the 23rd and 26th you stay 40/0/30/15/15? You don't at some point go 100% into stocks to take advantage of potentially lower prices? Also, you've seen that, more often than not, the market drops by the 28th of the month allowing a lower buy-in point?
 
I assume it means as an infantryman, walk the point slowly, carefully leading the rest of the troop. The parallel is that he wishes you good luck and to be careful with your advice as you lead us in the battlefield of the TSP. Maybe that is what he means.

Personally, I suggest that you follow your own advice and be not swayed, for it seems that you have a good system. I appreciate your advice and it is to our benefit or peril that we may follow it as TSPtalkers.

Good luck,`
 
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If you do not believe that the F Fund is secure, then why would you feel secure in the G Fund? A good portion of the F Fund invests in US treasuries which is as guaranteed as the G Fund, but about half of the F Fund is investments in the debt of those grand S&P 500 companies you speak of.

And to think that all this time I believed that Birchtree was the one who had the Holy Grail to investing....
 
Because of the current US rising debt, it is a good idea to stay out of it. I didnt say forever. Just now is not a good time. March and April are usually good times because of IRS refunds and people paying off debts. G Funds ALWAYS go up no matter how slight; there is always a return.


If you do not believe that the F Fund is secure, then why would you feel secure in the G Fund? A good portion of the F Fund invests in US treasuries which is as guaranteed as the G Fund, but about half of the F Fund is investments in the debt of those grand S&P 500 companies you speak of.

And to think that all this time I believed that Birchtree was the one who had the Holy Grail to investing....
 
Lately I have noticed that Friday's have been taking a hit.
A few of us were speculating the market's anticipation of our contributions.
USPS & Military are at opposing week pay periods.
Now that I know BlackRock is our equity Fund's admin, (a tangled web, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BlackRock) I wonder how much flash trading is going on when our contributions come down the pike. With Gov't payroll as a constant stream of liquidity, I would suspect the market is getting hammered as our funds hit the floor, especially in these times of tough cash. I would wonder if they get it bi-weekly or lump-sum monthly. I'm going to track Thursdays for awhile and see if I can smell cheese.:laugh:
 
It is always good to watch the trends. Especially near the close of the day (1600ish). I have found the peaks and fund trends after the middle of the month. Thats when the action happens.
 
Originally Posted by Corepuncher
Rather interesting from CNBC:

2) Buy on Friday's close, sell on Monday's close, THEN go away? I ran into an old friend, technician Frank Gretz of Wellington Shields, in front of the NYSE this morning. We talked technicals, and in the middle of the discussion he noted that Monday's have seen an amazing outperformance this year. He's right; here are the cumulative point gains for the Dow Industrials for each trading day of the year so far:
- Monday up 1,076
- Tuesday up 12
- Wednesday up 114
- Thursday down 841
- Friday down 721

There we are. Maybe this will help Crws. Keep us posted.:cool:
 
My theory is starting to Pan out. Day 2 current Allocations:

40% 0% 30% 15% 15%
FundG FundF FundC FundS FundI FundPrice -13.301213.828113.130417.553816.3690$ Change -0.0010-0.01870.33270.51020.3209% Chg day -+0.01% -0.14%+2.60% +2.99% +2.00%
 
Day 3...My theroy is still holding strong. Daily return today is 1.11%

Price 13.3023 13.8185 13.1844 17.7237 16.4111$
Change 0.0011 -0.0096 0.0540 0.1699 0.0421

40/0/30/15/15
 
RuffRyder,

The reason to stay out of the ‘F Fund’ isn’t government debt – ALL of the ‘G Fund’ is government debt. And, it really isn’t exposure to corporate debt. It is, instead, exposure to MBS’ (Mortgage Backed Securities), and I think exposure to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Regardless, as Bullitt mentioned, it is safer than the ‘C Fund’ because much of it is bonds from the same corporations held in the S&P 500 – with the caveat that under bankruptcy bonds are paid before equities are made whole. Sort of, as we have found out recently with GM and Chrysler.

I have a pet peeve – nobody else here seems concerned though – about the ‘G Fund’. Actually a couple.
  1. You are buying Social Security Bonds. Is that really a safe investment now that Social Security revenue is exceeded by Social Security expenditures? You are counting on Congress borrowing via Treasuries to cover that hole. This is a new (and unexpected – in the sarcastic voice of HotAir talking about the unemployment numbers) phenomena. Maybe the Chinese and the saver countries/folks will no longer want to ‘invest’ in such debt. Then what.
  2. That same Congress (actually the Administration via the Treasury) can ‘borrow’ assets from your ‘G Fund’ accounts. In the past this has happened when Congress does not expand the debt ceiling. The politicians promise to pay it back. Remember, the ‘G Fund’ is ‘invested’ in the Social Security Trust Fund ‘lockbox’. Yuk, yuk…
  3. And, finally, who sets the interest rate. Some Treasury bubba. Kinda sounds like an odd pension fund calculation. Don't trust em. Never did.
The time may come when we really need a cash equivalent in TSP, eh

It is the best we got though.:(

The ‘I Fund’ is a functional equivalent of a European/Japanese S&P 500. Like the S&P 500 you get the honor of owning a bunch of banks that were coerced into lending to crappy borrowers – both sovereign people and sovereign states. However, it does not include emerging markets. No China. No Brazil. No India. It is not all overseas stocks. And, it does NOT include foreign small caps. Wish we had two funds like the C/S for foreign investment – but, alas, we do not.

Anyway, good luck. I can’t seem to find my way around this year. Did well in the past, but you know the catch phrase – Past performance is not indicative of future earnings!!!
 
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