Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

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For those interested, I would like to share with you the format I use to trackmy allocations / dollar returns along with the performance of theindexes in hopes that it may help some of you with your tracking. It's been great for me. It's given me a bird's eye view of how the indexes have been performing along with my gains/losses for the month of December. I also have a tab for stocks. My Wife & I own WMT (Wal-Mart) & HD (Home Depot) stock. I am currently keeping an eye on the trends of SIRI of XMSR. I may buy into those at some point in time.

You will notice on the left side, the trading days of December. I have highlighted each day according to Tom's seasonality chart.

RED- Bad Day

GREEN- Good Day

Black- Neutral

You will also notice that I just began tracking the Asian markets. I want to see the trends in how they influence the international markets in general. I believe this will help me to better understand the I Fund.

Let me know if you have any questions/comments about the format I use. Once again, it's very simplified. But it works for me, and it may very well work for you too.

BTW, I also manage my Wife's TSP. This worksheet includes both our accounts since our allocations are a mirror reflection of one another.

God Bless & Happy Christmas!

 

[Rod]

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Since I'm moving more into the (I), this means everyone else needs to GET OUT!!!

Effective Tuesday:

60 S

40 I

God Bless & Happy New Year!:^

 

[Rod]

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Effective Wednesday:

30 S

70 I

God Bless!:^

 

[cajunfla]

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So you are expecting the I fund to go higher than what it is now? How much higher? What makes you think it will? I am trying to learn what indicators you guys follow.

I had a bunch in the I, then got out. Silly me got back in on a day when it closed higher than when I got out. Dumb move on my part.

 

[Rod]

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cajunfla wrote:

So you are expecting the I fund to go higher than what it is now? How much higher? What makes you think it will? I am trying to learn what indicators you guys follow.

I'm no guru, mind you. I'm simply watching the dollar. Once it begins to rebound, I'll pull out.

 

[Rod]

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FYI...

I am now in PCS / vacation /new home buying mode. That said, I will not be able to watch the marketsas close as I'd like to over the next month or so. But I will still post my moves when I make them and participate when I have spurts of downtime.

I doplan onswitching to a more "conservative" allocation by 7 Jan- when my Wife & I are due to fly back to the states.

God Bless & Happy New Year!:^

 

[Rod]

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My return for the month of December is:

3.68%

Remember, this is only for the month of December. I will begin my "yearly" returns in 2005.

Here is the worksheet:

God Bless & Happy New Year!:^

 

[FundSurfer]

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The difference between your calculation for December and my calculation on TALLY for December is the starting date. You started on 11/30, I started on 12/1. I was surprised at the wide difference when I saw your post and thought I had a blow in my calculations. Turns out that 11/30 was a very good day.

 

[Rod]

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Yeah, that was a good day!:^

The first week of Jan should be a good one.

I'm contemplating my allocation for Tuesday.....

 

[Rod]

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It's turning into a rough start for the new year. Hopefully this isn't an indicator of how 2005 will perform.

I don't want to get into the habit of jumping the gun too early and bailduring theselosses. If anything, I may lighten up on (I), and move some into (S) and simply view it as a low "buy in". Buying in low usually isn't on my priority list. But I don't want to completely bail to (G) just yet. We're BOUND to see a rebound. When???

I don't know. But I do know this much, I want to be invested when it does happen.

Still 30(S) and 70(I).

Like I said, I may move some into (S) tomorrow... especially since I begin my PCS/vacation on Saturday.

God Bless:^

 

[Mike]

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The minutes from the last FOMC meeting did it. Apparently, there was a mention of having to accelerate the interest rate hikes to keep inflation in check and strengthen the dollar. This is why both the market *and* the currency acted the way they did.

Economic news is still good - manufacturing numbers were strong as were the sales for the week after Christmas. However, when there's a rumor of bigger interest rate hikes coming down the pike, that's what will dominate.

Hopefully, some investors will recognize the continued strong economic numbers and take advantage of what is now a buying opportunity.

 

[Rod]

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Effective Thursday:

100 S

The dollar is on the rise, so I'm bailing on (I) and buying in low on (S)to catch the rebound!

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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Mike wrote:

Hopefully, some investors will recognize the continued strong economic numbers and take advantage of what is now a buying opportunity.

That's definitely what I'm doing.

 

[lookywhatigot@yahoo.com]

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Market is still acting crazy. One minute futures are up, next minute they are down. Good luck.

 

[Guest]

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Watch the 10 year treasury. Do not watch the futures. If you see the 10 year yield continue to jump...then expect 10-20% little down turn to start your New Year off right.

A couple hedge funds have a 500M short on the Spiders right now.

There will be no buying, just selling until the job reports comes out. No one wants to be in front of that train that is a professional trader.

MT

 

[Rod]

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Right now, the (I) may not be the greatest place to be. Here are some prices since 3 Jan. As you can see, the dollar is gaining ground:

Jan 3:

EURO: 1.3553

POUND: 1.919

YEN: 0.009731



Jan 4:

EURO 1.337

POUND: 1.894

YEN: 0.009650



As of now:

EURO: 1.3251

POUND: 1.8840

YEN: 0.009600



It doesn't take a rocket scientist to detect the downward trend. Until I see some upward movement, I'll be steering clear of (I).

God Bless:^

 

[Mike]

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The dollar is rallying on the rumor that the fed will engage in a more aggressive strategy with the interest rates. As long as this happens, the I fund is going to take a serious beating.

 

[Rod]

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Mike wrote:

The dollar is rallying on the rumor that the fed will engage in a more aggressive strategy with the interest rates. As long as this happens, the I fund is going to take a serious beating.

Yep,I'm gladI bailed. I'm buying 70% more into (S) @ 14.06.

It hasn't seen levels that low since Nov 23 @ 14.00.

Hopefully this will help to recupsome losses from (I).

God Bless:^

 

[Guest]

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Watch what happens when 110b is requested in the next two weeks for Iraq funding. Gold will shoot up and the U.S. dollar will reverse trend.

Funny the U.S. dollar gets stronger and the U.S. stock market is in thetoilet. If the U.S. stock market start going back up when the U.S. dollar start going down again...I believe that will be a signal that corporations and traders will want the dollar to continue the downward slide.

Just ones lemmings thoughts.

 

[Rod]

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Rod wrote:

Effective Thursday:

100 S

The dollar is on the rise, so I'm bailing on (I) and buying in low on (S)to catch the rebound!

God Bless:^

Looks as if this is going to pan out just fine.