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Rktect1 Account Talk
- Thread starter rktect1
- Start date
userque
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 36
Try PreparationH?
jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
High fiber diet supplemented with Metamucil.
rktect1
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 11
Well, I did not have any confidence in that last move to the S fund and I took a 1% loss for the month after jumping out to the F fund.
Yesterday I moved to the S fund again. My yearly gain is now 9% so I am doing all right.
But, a different thread got me wondering about something. I stated that I was averaging 8% for the past 15 years on my TSP, which is not true. I am about 7.5% average. Now, I know that this year I am at 9% but last year I was actually down minus 5%. That sucks and so does the 7.5% average I have for 15 years. I just looked up the yearly returns for the S fund on the tsp website. Last year when I lost 5%, the S fund gained about 8% That sucked eggs. What is worse is that since the S fund inception in 2001, the average gain is 9.44% So I am losing 2% on average right now for the last 15 years. I wonder what that comes out to in dollars?
At any rate, yes this year I am at 9% and the S fund is at like 1.03% So this year I made up for last year. But this is not really a winning strategy if buy and hold S fund is over 9%.
Somehow, I have to change my thinking to a semi buy and hold where I side step a couple (2-3) potholes for the year. I am thinking about a max. of 8 moves.
Yesterday I moved to the S fund again. My yearly gain is now 9% so I am doing all right.
But, a different thread got me wondering about something. I stated that I was averaging 8% for the past 15 years on my TSP, which is not true. I am about 7.5% average. Now, I know that this year I am at 9% but last year I was actually down minus 5%. That sucks and so does the 7.5% average I have for 15 years. I just looked up the yearly returns for the S fund on the tsp website. Last year when I lost 5%, the S fund gained about 8% That sucked eggs. What is worse is that since the S fund inception in 2001, the average gain is 9.44% So I am losing 2% on average right now for the last 15 years. I wonder what that comes out to in dollars?
At any rate, yes this year I am at 9% and the S fund is at like 1.03% So this year I made up for last year. But this is not really a winning strategy if buy and hold S fund is over 9%.
Somehow, I have to change my thinking to a semi buy and hold where I side step a couple (2-3) potholes for the year. I am thinking about a max. of 8 moves.
Whipsaw
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 239
I have found that fewer moves have greatly improved my performance, standing still to run fast (a Birchtree-ism). The trick is making a move when you're probably not inclined to (selling high, not bailing when things go south...). 7.5% over 15 years is not too shabby... compare that to CDs or savings accounts returns.
burrocrat
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 162
perhaps you should quit making yourself available for screwing in november and december? just a thought...
rktect1
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 11
How about January. I'm #1420 on the auto-tracker with a -1.75% for the year after just one day.
Yippee.
rktect1
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 11
So,....you want to beat the S fund. Well, me too.
as you can see from my returns in my signature, i havent been doing that well. I am wondering about my current strategy and re thinking it. So here are my thoughts.
beating the S fund returns, which are on average about 8%. And that aint bad.
so looking back to about 2007, had i stayed in the S fund 100% of the time, i would have an extra $50k right now.
why knock ourselves out when all you have to do is pick a good exit day, historically, or wait on extreme bad news and exit the S fund. Say, maybe three times a year. Then wait for the fall. Never buy back into the S fund until you can get back in at a lower price. Just look at the charts at tsp.gov and you can see that outside of "all time high" today, will eventually be replaced with a lower low. If this works out and you are patient, you should always be ahead of that average 8%, right.
So here is the test. Pick three random dates for each year for the past ten years. Look up where that market price for the S fund was at. Then check to see if there are three other times that you could get back in at a lower S fund price. Right?
Or am i way off base here?
as you can see from my returns in my signature, i havent been doing that well. I am wondering about my current strategy and re thinking it. So here are my thoughts.
beating the S fund returns, which are on average about 8%. And that aint bad.
so looking back to about 2007, had i stayed in the S fund 100% of the time, i would have an extra $50k right now.
why knock ourselves out when all you have to do is pick a good exit day, historically, or wait on extreme bad news and exit the S fund. Say, maybe three times a year. Then wait for the fall. Never buy back into the S fund until you can get back in at a lower price. Just look at the charts at tsp.gov and you can see that outside of "all time high" today, will eventually be replaced with a lower low. If this works out and you are patient, you should always be ahead of that average 8%, right.
So here is the test. Pick three random dates for each year for the past ten years. Look up where that market price for the S fund was at. Then check to see if there are three other times that you could get back in at a lower S fund price. Right?
Or am i way off base here?
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rktect1
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 11
Pick an actual date. Be honest with that date. Which day of what month would you have actually chosen to get out of the S fund and into the g fund? I am backtesting november 10 the Marine Corps birthday.
November 12 is closest to it. There is only one day after that i could buy back in at a lower price. Which means you had to buy back in on that day or today, three years later, you would still be waiting. But a day will come when the S fund goes below november 12 2013. And another day will come when it goes back over your buy back price.
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rktect1
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 11
My theory has to make several assumptions though.
1. You start with a benchmark of 8%, not 0% like autotracker does each year on January 1st.
2. I don't add any money into the tsp monthly or bi-monthly. I have a static number of shares to begin with.
3. In reality we don't randomly pick a date, only for back-testing. You still need to be watching for those signs and signals.
4. You never buy back into the S fund at a higher price even if that means being in the G fund for 2 years.
I back-tested the "go away in may" date of roughly May10-15 and bought back in Sept 10-20 from 2006 through 2012 and instead of an 8% average return came out with a 10% return.
1. You start with a benchmark of 8%, not 0% like autotracker does each year on January 1st.
2. I don't add any money into the tsp monthly or bi-monthly. I have a static number of shares to begin with.
3. In reality we don't randomly pick a date, only for back-testing. You still need to be watching for those signs and signals.
4. You never buy back into the S fund at a higher price even if that means being in the G fund for 2 years.
I back-tested the "go away in may" date of roughly May10-15 and bought back in Sept 10-20 from 2006 through 2012 and instead of an 8% average return came out with a 10% return.
