Rktect1 Account Talk

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I am really wishing I had jumped to the sidelines right now. It was either today, tomorrow or Wednesday but I just couldn't do it today for some reason. Now I am filled with regret.

Crap, stooped noon cutoff. :soapbox:
 
I just had a movement.

Very painful.

100% S fund COB.

Not a true believer in this move but I want to be invested going into November. Really there was too much positive gains in October for me to feel good about this but.......
 
Well, I did not have any confidence in that last move to the S fund and I took a 1% loss for the month after jumping out to the F fund.

Yesterday I moved to the S fund again. My yearly gain is now 9% so I am doing all right.

But, a different thread got me wondering about something. I stated that I was averaging 8% for the past 15 years on my TSP, which is not true. I am about 7.5% average. Now, I know that this year I am at 9% but last year I was actually down minus 5%. That sucks and so does the 7.5% average I have for 15 years. I just looked up the yearly returns for the S fund on the tsp website. Last year when I lost 5%, the S fund gained about 8% That sucked eggs. What is worse is that since the S fund inception in 2001, the average gain is 9.44% So I am losing 2% on average right now for the last 15 years. I wonder what that comes out to in dollars?

At any rate, yes this year I am at 9% and the S fund is at like 1.03% So this year I made up for last year. But this is not really a winning strategy if buy and hold S fund is over 9%.

Somehow, I have to change my thinking to a semi buy and hold where I side step a couple (2-3) potholes for the year. I am thinking about a max. of 8 moves.
 
rktect1 said:
Well, I did not have any confidence in that last move to the S fund and I took a 1% loss for the month after jumping out to the F fund.

Yesterday I moved to the S fund again. My yearly gain is now 9% so I am doing all right.

But, a different thread got me wondering about something. I stated that I was averaging 8% for the past 15 years on my TSP, which is not true. I am about 7.5% average. Now, I know that this year I am at 9% but last year I was actually down minus 5%. That sucks and so does the 7.5% average I have for 15 years. I just looked up the yearly returns for the S fund on the tsp website. Last year when I lost 5%, the S fund gained about 8% That sucked eggs. What is worse is that since the S fund inception in 2001, the average gain is 9.44% So I am losing 2% on average right now for the last 15 years. I wonder what that comes out to in dollars?

At any rate, yes this year I am at 9% and the S fund is at like 1.03% So this year I made up for last year. But this is not really a winning strategy if buy and hold S fund is over 9%.

Somehow, I have to change my thinking to a semi buy and hold where I side step a couple (2-3) potholes for the year. I am thinking about a max. of 8 moves.
Click to expand...

I have found that fewer moves have greatly improved my performance, standing still to run fast (a Birchtree-ism). The trick is making a move when you're probably not inclined to (selling high, not bailing when things go south...). 7.5% over 15 years is not too shabby... compare that to CDs or savings accounts returns.
 
Congratulations
I don't know if that's worse than me being in the top 10 for 7 months last year and then working my way down to your current position

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
 
Hopefully, with my exit today into the G fund, I can hold onto my 5% gain for the month. Sounds really nice but that will put me at -.70% for the year. Which I am now happy with.
 
So,....you want to beat the S fund. Well, me too.

as you can see from my returns in my signature, i havent been doing that well. I am wondering about my current strategy and re thinking it. So here are my thoughts.

beating the S fund returns, which are on average about 8%. And that aint bad.

so looking back to about 2007, had i stayed in the S fund 100% of the time, i would have an extra $50k right now.

why knock ourselves out when all you have to do is pick a good exit day, historically, or wait on extreme bad news and exit the S fund. Say, maybe three times a year. Then wait for the fall. Never buy back into the S fund until you can get back in at a lower price. Just look at the charts at tsp.gov and you can see that outside of "all time high" today, will eventually be replaced with a lower low. If this works out and you are patient, you should always be ahead of that average 8%, right.

So here is the test. Pick three random dates for each year for the past ten years. Look up where that market price for the S fund was at. Then check to see if there are three other times that you could get back in at a lower S fund price. Right?

Or am i way off base here?
 
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OK, but what do you do when you are wrong? It took off like a rocket in 2013 and never came down. A lot of people on the sideline waited for a drop that never came. That is sort of what happened to me when I got out earlier this year.
 
Cactus said:
OK, but what do you do when you are wrong? It took off like a rocket in 2013 and never came down. A lot of people on the sideline waited for a drop that never came. That is sort of what happened to me when I got out earlier this year.
Click to expand...
Pick an actual date. Be honest with that date. Which day of what month would you have actually chosen to get out of the S fund and into the g fund? I am backtesting november 10 the Marine Corps birthday.

November 12 is closest to it. There is only one day after that i could buy back in at a lower price. Which means you had to buy back in on that day or today, three years later, you would still be waiting. But a day will come when the S fund goes below november 12 2013. And another day will come when it goes back over your buy back price.
 
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My theory has to make several assumptions though.

1. You start with a benchmark of 8%, not 0% like autotracker does each year on January 1st.
2. I don't add any money into the tsp monthly or bi-monthly. I have a static number of shares to begin with.
3. In reality we don't randomly pick a date, only for back-testing. You still need to be watching for those signs and signals.
4. You never buy back into the S fund at a higher price even if that means being in the G fund for 2 years.


I back-tested the "go away in may" date of roughly May10-15 and bought back in Sept 10-20 from 2006 through 2012 and instead of an 8% average return came out with a 10% return.
 
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