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I just had a movement.
Very painful.
Well, I did not have any confidence in that last move to the S fund and I took a 1% loss for the month after jumping out to the F fund.
Yesterday I moved to the S fund again. My yearly gain is now 9% so I am doing all right.
But, a different thread got me wondering about something. I stated that I was averaging 8% for the past 15 years on my TSP, which is not true. I am about 7.5% average. Now, I know that this year I am at 9% but last year I was actually down minus 5%. That sucks and so does the 7.5% average I have for 15 years. I just looked up the yearly returns for the S fund on the tsp website. Last year when I lost 5%, the S fund gained about 8% That sucked eggs. What is worse is that since the S fund inception in 2001, the average gain is 9.44% So I am losing 2% on average right now for the last 15 years. I wonder what that comes out to in dollars?
At any rate, yes this year I am at 9% and the S fund is at like 1.03% So this year I made up for last year. But this is not really a winning strategy if buy and hold S fund is over 9%.
Somehow, I have to change my thinking to a semi buy and hold where I side step a couple (2-3) potholes for the year. I am thinking about a max. of 8 moves.
So, there it is.
November and December screwed me in 2015 just like 2014.
down to 4.94%
perhaps you should quit making yourself available for screwing in november and december? just a thought...
Pick an actual date. Be honest with that date. Which day of what month would you have actually chosen to get out of the S fund and into the g fund? I am backtesting november 10 the Marine Corps birthday.OK, but what do you do when you are wrong? It took off like a rocket in 2013 and never came down. A lot of people on the sideline waited for a drop that never came. That is sort of what happened to me when I got out earlier this year.