06/17/25
Monday was a reversal day - a reversal of Friday's action. What was down on Friday, was up on Monday. What was up on Friday, was down on Monday. For the most part - bonds were an exception, but stocks reversed Friday's losses with some big gains on Monday. The S&P 500 couldn't quite hold onto the morning highs but the Nasdaq held up well and got back all of today's losses, and then some. Oil and gold were up big on Friday, and down big yesterday. Bonds rallied early but faded late.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
The Nasdaq continues to dominate with twice the number of stocks going up than down, but the share volume advance / decline ratio was about 5 to 1 in favor of advancing volume. The NYSE did well but those Nasdaq numbers were hard to beat.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) rebounded off that May peak, which was resistance and is now acting as support, but the action has slowed significantly since the massive 6-week rally off the April lows, and yesterday's rally peaked and started to run out of steam within the first hour of trading. The question is whether it is consolidating for another leg higher, or is the rally running out of steam and creating some kind of rounded top?
The monetary policy suggests the wind is at the back of the stock market but the June seasonality calendar suggests a headwind from June 18th through the 26th.
The Fed's FOMC meeting could set the tone as the two-day Fed FOMC meeting starts today and we'll get a decision on interests on Wednesday. There are virtually no expectations for a cut at tomorrow's meeting, but we should learn something new about their monetary policy outlook.
The 10-year Treasury Yield moved up again on Monday after Friday's big rally. OK, boring, I get it. But it is imperative that this yield bond yield stays contained.
As I stated in Monday's commentary, bonds (BND / F-fund), which move counter to yields, historically go up when there are geopolitical or economic concerns as it is considered a safe haven during tough times, but that did not happen on Friday as yields rallied (bonds fell) and it may have been because the price of oil rallied. There is a correlation between oil and bond yields as both are sensitive to economic data. And since the Middle East was involved, it may have been why bonds prices (not yields) did not act like a safe haven and rally on Friday. But oil fell yesterday, so it isn't making a lot of sense to me right now.
Technically, bonds have been rallying since the April and May lows, but as I said, the pullback over the last two days is a little odd. The BND (F-fund) chart is at some interesting support right now, and what happens today may be telling. Again, boring stuff, but I am sure the savvy bond market traders are trying to tell us something.
The Dow Transportation index has bounced off of its 50-day EMA yet again. That is 5 touches in the last 4 weeks with no closes below it. It looks like a bull flag, and that means it may want to go higher. If this economically sensitive index and market leader wants to go higher, it is also trying to tell us something, and that something may be a bullish story.
The futures were down sharply on Monday evening suggesting Monday's gains may be in jeopardy, so the action is getting sporadic and the bulls may be opening the door for the bears to make a move. The day traders love when there is a catalyst that can push the market up and down with every headline, but we have to look out a little further and decipher what it all means.
Holiday Closing: From tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Thursday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Thursday night (June 19) will be processed Friday night (June 20) at Friday's closing share prices."
The DWCPF / S-fund was up big on Monday, but like the S&P 500, it made its intraday highs in the first hour of trading, and faded off those highs as the day wore on. It's in a flag / wedge formation with the 50 and 200-day EMAs near 2150, and that could be a target if the wedge breaks down. Otherwise, closing back above the May peak was a bullish sign and as long as this is above 2200 or down to 2150, the bulls are in charge.
The ACWX (I-fund) was up but it too closed near the lows of the day after the morning rally. The dollar closed positive, reversing a weak morning, so that led to a negative reversal day in the I-fund.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Monday was a reversal day - a reversal of Friday's action. What was down on Friday, was up on Monday. What was up on Friday, was down on Monday. For the most part - bonds were an exception, but stocks reversed Friday's losses with some big gains on Monday. The S&P 500 couldn't quite hold onto the morning highs but the Nasdaq held up well and got back all of today's losses, and then some. Oil and gold were up big on Friday, and down big yesterday. Bonds rallied early but faded late.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
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The Nasdaq continues to dominate with twice the number of stocks going up than down, but the share volume advance / decline ratio was about 5 to 1 in favor of advancing volume. The NYSE did well but those Nasdaq numbers were hard to beat.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) rebounded off that May peak, which was resistance and is now acting as support, but the action has slowed significantly since the massive 6-week rally off the April lows, and yesterday's rally peaked and started to run out of steam within the first hour of trading. The question is whether it is consolidating for another leg higher, or is the rally running out of steam and creating some kind of rounded top?
The monetary policy suggests the wind is at the back of the stock market but the June seasonality calendar suggests a headwind from June 18th through the 26th.
The Fed's FOMC meeting could set the tone as the two-day Fed FOMC meeting starts today and we'll get a decision on interests on Wednesday. There are virtually no expectations for a cut at tomorrow's meeting, but we should learn something new about their monetary policy outlook.
The 10-year Treasury Yield moved up again on Monday after Friday's big rally. OK, boring, I get it. But it is imperative that this yield bond yield stays contained.
As I stated in Monday's commentary, bonds (BND / F-fund), which move counter to yields, historically go up when there are geopolitical or economic concerns as it is considered a safe haven during tough times, but that did not happen on Friday as yields rallied (bonds fell) and it may have been because the price of oil rallied. There is a correlation between oil and bond yields as both are sensitive to economic data. And since the Middle East was involved, it may have been why bonds prices (not yields) did not act like a safe haven and rally on Friday. But oil fell yesterday, so it isn't making a lot of sense to me right now.
Technically, bonds have been rallying since the April and May lows, but as I said, the pullback over the last two days is a little odd. The BND (F-fund) chart is at some interesting support right now, and what happens today may be telling. Again, boring stuff, but I am sure the savvy bond market traders are trying to tell us something.
The Dow Transportation index has bounced off of its 50-day EMA yet again. That is 5 touches in the last 4 weeks with no closes below it. It looks like a bull flag, and that means it may want to go higher. If this economically sensitive index and market leader wants to go higher, it is also trying to tell us something, and that something may be a bullish story.
The futures were down sharply on Monday evening suggesting Monday's gains may be in jeopardy, so the action is getting sporadic and the bulls may be opening the door for the bears to make a move. The day traders love when there is a catalyst that can push the market up and down with every headline, but we have to look out a little further and decipher what it all means.
Holiday Closing: From tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Thursday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Thursday night (June 19) will be processed Friday night (June 20) at Friday's closing share prices."
The DWCPF / S-fund was up big on Monday, but like the S&P 500, it made its intraday highs in the first hour of trading, and faded off those highs as the day wore on. It's in a flag / wedge formation with the 50 and 200-day EMAs near 2150, and that could be a target if the wedge breaks down. Otherwise, closing back above the May peak was a bullish sign and as long as this is above 2200 or down to 2150, the bulls are in charge.
The ACWX (I-fund) was up but it too closed near the lows of the day after the morning rally. The dollar closed positive, reversing a weak morning, so that led to a negative reversal day in the I-fund.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
