Reversal at Hand?

Stocks picked up where they left off Friday, as the major averages saw moderate to heavy losses. The broader market closed not far off its lows of the day. The S&P 500 dropped 1.08%, the Nasdaq 1.11%, the Dow 0.5%, and the Wilshire 4500 a hefty 1.61%.

We haven't seen these levels since March 23.

Of particular note today was the fact that financials underperformed the broader market as the sector fell about 2.0%.

Crude oil dropped below the $100 dollar market, with a barrel of oil settling near $98.80/barrel.

Interestingly, treasuries were relatively flat today in the face of significant equities selling pressure.

And the dollar index managed a modest gain as the greenback tacked on 0.27%.

So it was a relatively light news day for the market, but the negative tone persists. Looking at the Seven Sentinels however, the signals are suggesting that a reversal may be at hand given the deeply negative levels that are reflected in the charts. Let's take a look:

NAMO-NYMO.jpg

NAMO and NYMO are now at levels that typically see a bounce. Notice the lower lows in NYMO, with NAMO not far off putting in a lower low too should more selling pressure come tomorrow. Both are on sells.

NAHL-NYHL.jpg

NAHL and NYHL are also in sell conditions.

TRIN-TRINQ.jpg

TRIN and TRINQ are flashing sells too, with TRIN suggesting a bounce is near. However, when it hit above this level last week, we didn't get much of a bounce. Market character may not be what it's been for the past nine months, so no guarantees here.

BPCOMPQ.png

BPCOMPQ looks ominous. It is falling hard and continues to suggest we're going lower. It too is on a sell.

Guess what? All seven signals are flashing sells and NYMO has hit a fresh 28 day trading low. That's a repeat sell as the system was already in a sell condition.

It doesn't look good for the bulls right now, as technicals are getting hit pretty hard. But bearish sentiment is rising, which could help the market find a low before too much longer. I'm not expecting things to fall completely apart. QE2 is still being pumped and I doubt the powers that be will let things get away from them. At least not yet.
 
CH,

What are you seeing that make you think a turnaround is near?

As you know, I have no idea but...
This has been a long, drawn out affair. Not a sharp downturn. It is starting to feel aged. I think the bears are chewing on the slower folks. But, what are you seeing in the charts?
 
So, not being an expert here I have a statement which I would like clarified/ratified or refuted:

"Going back 2 years, the next natural support level for BPCOMPQ is the 50 level which saw support in August and June of last year. Previous to the June level the high there was a sharp drop from the previous peak of 72 which we have already surpassed."

Given this statement and how we seem to be retracing the previous chart pattern, why wouldn't we reverse to which was our previous 1 year resistance?

Since the NASDAQ is tech heavy, and tech seems natural to boom when investment funds are available (low interest environment), when liquidity may dry up, what keeps the chart from a 3 year low of below 10?

If $COMPQ retraces prices in the same shape $BPCOMPQ retraces levels, is our next support level of $COMPQ 2100 which is a %22 fall from today's close?

QE2 was brought to:

1. Lower interest rates to support the housing market and to make borrowing more attractive.
2. Lower unemployment.
3. Raise equity market values allowing "smart people" to recoup their losses.

Reason 1 was semi-successful; those with good credit score refied a better rate, thus helping balance sheets globally. Now as those refied maturities are starting to be repaid, the balance sheets start to head south again as toxic loans inversely increase.

Reason 2 was mildly successful. Small caps borrowed at lower rate freeing up capital to reinvest/hire. Large caps took profits. This cash/cache will be used the next market capitulation bottom where corporations will begin to purchase at the point where they think they are valued at or a little lower hoping to catch the bottom. As the economy builds from this bottom the large cap buy smaller caps to increase their "forward profits" thus catapulting ahead of competitors.

Reason 3 was highly successful. Smart money recouped losses, made profits, and are now selling again. They sit out the next correction turned recession thus buy low again in this long term bull market.

Based on this you could be a short bear and long bull. What are your thoughts on these positions?

- Emo
 
I'm seeing an oversold condition. TRINQ is suggesting such, as well as NAMO and NYMO. A reversal from here might last one to four days, but BPCOMPQ suggests lower prices are still a strong possibility.

Boghie;bt3331 said:
CH,

What are you seeing that make you think a turnaround is near?

As you know, I have no idea but...
This has been a long, drawn out affair. Not a sharp downturn. It is starting to feel aged. I think the bears are chewing on the slower folks. But, what are you seeing in the charts?
 
A definite maybe. I am longer term bullish, but only out to the fourth quarter 2011. After that I'm bearish, but things could change.

In the short term I think there's still a good chance we drop lower than today's close. I'm thinking the low could come next week, but we'll have to see.

I don't have much time this morning to go into any detail as I have a flight to catch this morning. I'll put up a longer term perspective of BPCOMPQ this evening.

EmoDx;bt3332 said:
Based on this you could be a short bear and long bull. What are your thoughts on these positions?

- Emo
 
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