Recommended allocations after retirement

For those who are retired and withdrawing funds from their account (because they need to), what percent do you recommend remain in either C, S or I? Do you stash it all in G for safety or do you put some in stocks hoping for a profit?

Now that I'm retired and not making contributions, I seem to fear the losses more. Conversely, I feel like I'm missing out at 100% G. Thanks.

Mo
 
Many feel that you should allocate in such a fashion so as to be able to accrue gains to offset some or all of the amount you withdraw. While this is a different amount relative to the needs of each individual, a popular suggestion is to expect to maintain a 4% rate as equilibrium. I will likely expect somewhat more than that, but plan to manage my TSP account agressively.

It will depend on what you have, what you need and how long you expect to live.

Best of fortune... and congratulations on your retirement!

For those who are retired and withdrawing funds from their account (because they need to), what percent do you recommend remain in either C, S or I? Do you stash it all in G for safety or do you put some in stocks hoping for a profit?

Now that I'm retired and not making contributions, I seem to fear the losses more. Conversely, I feel like I'm missing out at 100% G. Thanks.

Mo
 
For those who are retired and withdrawing funds from their account (because they need to), what percent do you recommend remain in either C, S or I? Do you stash it all in G for safety or do you put some in stocks hoping for a profit?Mo

Welcome back.

Usually the concerns/trade offs are:
1. How much you need to withdraw each year.
2. Your starting balance.
3. Whether or not you're worried about running out of money.

The withdrawal rule of thumb is 4% a year. Of course you'll probably need to take on a little risk, i.e. C/S/I, to stay ahead of inflation.

You can run some Monte Carlo simulations at this site.
http://www.firecalc.com/firecalc.php
The simulations compute the probability that your withdrawal/portfolio plan will succeed. Of course, nothing is guaranteed. :cool:

In terms of C/S/I a good place to start would be C=55%; S=15%; I=30% balanced by enough G/F to get the level of risk you feel comfortable with.

For example a 50/50 portfolio could look like G=25%;F=25%;C=28%;S=7%;I=15%. Using historical data that portfolio would gave an 8.72% return with a 8.17% standard deviation. If inflation averages its historical rate of 3.5%, you withdraw 4%, and you actually get the average 8.72%, you won't run out of money.

At lot of assumptions, but what can you do?:laugh:
 
Now that I'm retired and not making contributions, I seem to fear the losses more. Conversely, I feel like I'm missing out at 100% G. Thanks........Mo

Mo,
That feeling will pass in a few months. Similiar to "deer in headlights"...:D
SkyPilot and rokid have good advice.
But, you might want to stay safe in G or L-Income till you get your land legs back.....;)
We are getting more retired folks here ever week!
Welcome to the club!
Spaf
 
Mo,

Make no mistake you are in a dangerous game and without the benefit of DCA contributions the danger level is elevated. Concentrate your energy on being on the right side of the curve - we are still in a bull market. That is most important. I wouldn't bother with a diversified plan but concentrate my funds in the sector that is most undervalued - that currently is the C fund. You have the opportunity to really expand your balance over the next three years whether you do a buy and hold or trade the position volatility. Don't bunny hop everytime the weather changes - you will loose money because you no longer have the redeemer of DCA on your side. If you are now in the G fund you can gently DCA in on the way up locking profits in behind you.

Dennis
 
Thanks to all for your insightful replies.

While under CSRS, my TSP account sometimes seemed like monopoly money. Now its more serious and preservation is a real concern.
Presently, I'm 50% G. The other 50% in equities. I don't transfer very often, but I do watch closely.
Mo
 
The L-Income fund is set up for very low risk, compared to full stock funds, and does seem to do better than the G fund alone. It's 74% "G", 6% "F", and the balance in stocks.

Being 50/50 in G and stocks is a little risky- but if yo are comfortable with that split, more power to you!

L funds might be a nice place to sit while you think about where you want to be later.
 
For those who are retired and withdrawing funds from their account (because they need to), what percent do you recommend remain in either C, S or I? Do you stash it all in G for safety or do you put some in stocks hoping for a profit?

Now that I'm retired and not making contributions, I seem to fear the losses more. Conversely, I feel like I'm missing out at 100% G. Thanks.

Mo
Do a google search for the "Monte Carlo Simulation" model which may help you determine the right mix of assets from which to withdraw during retirement.

Ed
 
For those who are retired and withdrawing funds from their account (because they need to), what percent do you recommend remain in either C, S or I? Do you stash it all in G for safety or do you put some in stocks hoping for a profit?

Now that I'm retired and not making contributions, I seem to fear the losses more. Conversely, I feel like I'm missing out at 100% G. Thanks.

Mo
Google "Monte Carlo Simulation" model which may help determine the asset mix. The financial community seems to generally agree the percentage to draw down retirement assests should be no more than 4% if you want to outlive your assets.

Ed
 
I'd probably go 20%I, 10%C, 10%S, 50%F, and 10%G, if all i had to use was TSP.

>Going much lower on stock holdings will primarly just hurt your return more, but wont really lower risk that much more.
>Bonds are going to give you about a percent more than G fund over the long term, and have more indirect correlation with stocks reducing volatility
>Buying too much US stock can be thought of as patriotic, but its a little short sighted given its just one country in the world. IMO, at least 50% of one's stock portion should be outside the US, whether retired or not. Even at the 50% level you can boast how much you like US stock because at least half of ALL your stock holdings are just in the US.
>If preservation of capital and return are both given equal weight, someone has their work cut out for them to beat my suggested portfolio for a retiree.
>TSP needs a foreign bond fund IMO worse than anything else. Followed by a junk bond/convertables/preferred stock fund or maybe an REIT fund.
 
For those who are retired and withdrawing funds from their account (because they need to), what percent do you recommend remain in either C, S or I? Do you stash it all in G for safety or do you put some in stocks hoping for a profit?

Now that I'm retired and not making contributions, I seem to fear the losses more. Conversely, I feel like I'm missing out at 100% G. Thanks.

Mo
Here's is one suggestion.



Portfolio E

Stocks
60%
38% Large Cap Stocks, or C Fund
12% Small Cap Stocks, or S Fund
10% International Stocks, or I Fund

Bonds
30%
20% Investment Grade Bonds, or F Fund
6% High Yield Bonds, or F Fund
4% International Bonds, or F Fund

Short-Term
Securities
10%

10% Short-Term Bonds, or G Fund

Ed
 
I'd probably go 20%I, 10%C, 10%S, 50%F, and 10%G, if all i had to use was TSP.

The F fund has a poor risk vs return ratio... less than a point higher than the G fund for the last 10 years, with the prospect of losing cash.
 
Retirement and TSP

JMHO!

If I chose not to manage my funds, I would go to the L-Income fund!

If my chose was to actively manage my funds. Primary consideration would be capital preservation, but trading:
1. Going to stocks if the market was oversold.
2. Not going over 50% stocks without definite buy in indicators.
3. Stay in cash when caution indicators are present.

We have a member "Rokid" that does a lot of TSP fund/member analysis. For retirement I like being very low on his risk analysis and midway in his overall reward analysis.

At one time I had 100% allocation to TSP. Then we had the Murray Building incident and I lost my checking account for several months. Woops! no longer all eggs in one basket. I changed my allocation to 40% TSP / 40% broker / 20% cash / emergency; about 1/2 is tax deferred, 1/2 tax paid.

After 50, I've seen three medical emergencies. Having diversified funds has been a life saver. After experiencing the stock market bubble of 2000, I came to realize that it's best to manage your own funds, as they say know when to hold em and know when to fold em. A 50% loss requires a 100% make up.
 
Q: I recently retired from civil service under the Federal Employees Retirement System at the age of 61. I have about $125,000 in my Thrift Savings Plan. Should I leave all of my money in the G fund at the 5 percent interest it is earning, or should I move over to the L fund, with a current rate of about 7 percent?

I get about $2,500 a month in take-home retirement, and my house is paid for. But we are still paying for the move from Seattle to San Antonio to care for my mother-in-law.

A: You've got the right idea. But there are some important details you need to know. First, your G fund is an investment in an index of U.S. government securities with a maturity of four years or more. As such, it is likely to do better than inflation by about 2 percentage points a year. It is also fairly stable.

The relatively new L funds are different. They are "life-cycle" funds that are pre-built portfolios that combine all five of the individual asset-class funds offered in your plan.

Combined in different proportions, you can choose among five L funds. Just as major retail fund firms have simplified investing by creating life-cycle funds pegged to different retirement dates, so has the Thrift Savings Plan.

In theory, you would select the L Income fund because you are now retired. That fund, however, is 80 percent fixed-income investments and only 20 percent equities. I believe that is excessively conservative for someone your age. More important, it is unlikely to provide the inflation protection you will need over the decades of retirement ahead of you.

I suggest you invest in the L 2020 fund. It now has 38 percent fixed-income and 62 percent equities. Even nicer, the equities have a nice slug of domestic small-cap stocks (15 percent of total portfolio) and international stocks (21 percent of total portfolio). Between now and 2020 it will slowly morph into the L Income fund, becoming more conservative. That will be more appropriate when you are 74.

Whatever choice you make, you should know that you have the best deal going in employee retirement plans. The expense ratio on all these funds is a mere 0.03 percent. That's a tiny fraction of what private-sector employees are charged. It means that virtually all of the return on your money is going to you rather than building megamansions for Wall Street executives.

It is important that you understand that your L fund does not have a "yield" of 7 percent. It has a return that will vary significantly from year to year. The fund has an expected return of about 8 percent, about 5 percentage points better than the rate of inflation. But that return won't come in like clockwork.

For instance, the return on a nearly identical simulated portfolio has run above 8 percent over the last 10 years, but in its worst three-month period it lost nearly 10 percent. (In its best three-month period it gained more than 13 percent.) Living with those ups and downs is the price you pay for the additional return.

You can read more on the life-cycle funds by downloading a PDF file at www.tsp.gov/rates/fundsheet-lfunds.pdf.

Questions about personal finance and investments may be sent by e-mail to scott@scottburns.com or by fax to 505-424-0938. Questions of general interest will be answered in future columns.

Copyright 2007 Universal Press Syndicate

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003769400_burns01.html
 
For those who are retired and withdrawing funds from their account (because they need to), what percent do you recommend remain in either C, S or I? Do you stash it all in G for safety or do you put some in stocks hoping for a profit?

Now that I'm retired and not making contributions, I seem to fear the losses more. Conversely, I feel like I'm missing out at 100% G. Thanks.

Mo

You can check the web site for Monte Carlo Simulation Models which may provide a key to the proper asset mix in retirement to avoid outliving your money.

Ed
 
The F fund has a poor risk vs return ratio... less than a point higher than the G fund for the last 10 years, with the prospect of losing cash.

When you come to understand that point (percentage actually) higher is representated in real terms exponentially (when compounded over time), not linearly, then you realize "one point" is a lot.

Over a long period of time (hopefully, most of your retirements will be long-term), the risk of short term, and modest losses should not be a major concern. With heavy weightings in stocks, it could become an issue which is why I recommend a very conservative 40% position in stocks, but in Bonds? Only a worry-wart of the most extreme kind should be concerned about losing significant amounts of money in investment-grade bonds.
 
azanon,
I agree with your 40% equities, and 60% safe! Bonds are not good with interest rates rising or high. Heck, the G-fund is averaging 4.90%. A few good trades and you have 7%. Once you have your nest egg, reward becomes minor and risk becomes major. Cause U can't lay anutter egg!...:D


When you come to understand that point (percentage actually) higher is representated in real terms exponentially (when compounded over time), not linearly, then you realize "one point" is a lot.

Over a long period of time (hopefully, most of your retirements will be long-term), the risk of short term, and modest losses should not be a major concern. With heavy weightings in stocks, it could become an issue which is why I recommend a very conservative 40% position in stocks, but in Bonds? Only a worry-wart of the most extreme kind should be concerned about losing significant amounts of money in investment-grade bonds.
 
When you come to understand that point (percentage actually) higher is representated in real terms exponentially (when compounded over time), not linearly, then you realize "one point" is a lot.

Again, you make the point for me...

F fund poses substantial downside risk compared to the G fund. There is not a substantial benefit, at least in my opinion and situation. Of the two, G will provide the better "safe haven" with none of the risk associated with the F.
 
azanon,
.............. Bonds are not good with interest rates rising or high. ..........:D

Few things are more risky than market timing. That's a market timing statement. A buy and hold gives a rat's ass about what the current interest rates are or their direction. If I knew interest rates were going to rise with 100% certainty, then of course I wouldn't buy (mid/long term) bonds. But the only people that can tell the future are a lot of you guys who are market timing here. I have no soothsaying abilities, I must admit.
 
Again, you make the point for me...

F fund poses substantial downside risk compared to the G fund. There is not a substantial benefit, at least in my opinion and situation. Of the two, G will provide the better "safe haven" with none of the risk associated with the F.

There is no substantial downside risk to either the F or G fund held over the long term. A decent argument could be made that there is no "substantial" risk even short term with investment grade bonds. If a substantial position in investment grade bonds is going to be criticized at all (by an investment professional), it will be that they are too conservative, not too risky.

If you make the (safe) assumption that the first 3% of returns keep an investment up with inflation, that the G fund averages 6%, the F fund 7%, then mathematically, the F fund will give you 33% more real return over the long run (4/3 x 100%). 33% more return COMPOUNDED on itself, is a LOT more. Hell, the equilivant of banks take G fund type money, invest it in bonds, and keep the difference. You want to be the bank, or the sucker being paid interest by the bank?

I made my point to help others here. If you don't think you need my help, then you know for certain I wasn't speaking to you. I'm not particularly interested in your point anyway, as I don't need any help either.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top