RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
RealMoneyIssues said:
exter-inverse-pyramid.jpg


What is this, a risk triangle???

Seriously, what is this?
Click to expand...
Someone's representation of deflation, when cash is taken out of the upper levels, it falls down to where "Cash is King" and Gold is the safest haven for an investment.....When the arrows are in reverse (going up), it shows money leaving safe-haven through bonds up to stocks and investments in the riskiest of investments.
 
tsptalk said:
Once Time magazine or Barron's puts that on their cover, the top will be in.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I need all three to start thinking about sentiment being too high. Too bad Abelson is gone, but finally Barron's might get a fresh line of thinking.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Leaving TSP in G until we get a dip as buying at market highs is insane...
Click to expand...

But when the market drops 8-10% you'll probably just keep telling yourself that it's going lower.

Missing volume, rally on defense stocks... both bad for the market
Click to expand...

Why are rising defense stocks bad for the market?
Ticker Sense: Defensive Sectors Leading... So What!!!

Don't fall for broker hype. They'd much rather one goes machine gun Kelly on the buy/sell than buys and holds dividend paying stocks. Commissions mean money.
 
Bullitt said:
But when the market drops 8-10% you'll probably just keep telling yourself that it's going lower.
Click to expand...
No, I don't expect to have an 8-10% drop this year, or next year. When the market turns, then puts in a low and turns back up (higher high, higher low) I will buy then and have not taken the loss and bought in lower. There will be a drop in the market at some point, there has been a few already.

Bullitt said:
Why are rising defense stocks bad for the market?
Ticker Sense: Defensive Sectors Leading... So What!!!

Don't fall for broker hype. They'd much rather one goes machine gun Kelly on the buy/sell than buys and holds dividend paying stocks. Commissions mean money.
Click to expand...
And as I have stated many times, I am not a buy and holder. You, BT, and other buy & hold investors can believe there is going to be a bull market for the next 5-10 years and that is fine. Yall have the depth of your portfolio to handle any temporary losses and the dividends to be able to continue to DCA into the market at the "price of the day." That is not me. You invest how you invest, and I trade how I trade.

Now, back to your actual question. If you only take into account big name, S&P health care stocks as defensive I see your point. There are a lot of bio tech companies represented in health care and they are not defensive. When I talk about defensive stocks, I refer to dividend paying "safe" large cap stocks. Take a look back at your link and see they define "defensive sectors (health care, consumer staples and utilities)" where utilities is way down on the list.

My same logic holds for the shift from small cap to mid cap to large cap as institutions shift their money from risky to safe investments.

When the DJIA continues to lead with the S&P-500 and NASDAQ lagging, that is a shift to large cap "safe" investments. Is that what is happening now? Don't know, as these markets are inflated and continue to make technical analysis difficult and fundamental analysis useless (majority of stocks missed and we still go up), I find it more difficult to make a decision to jump in.

Having everyone that are buy and hold investors or already in the market telling me and those on the sidelines "come on in, the market is fine" doesn't make us want to get in. Yall have different plans and objectives. Would you be saying the same thing after another Jul/Aug 2011 event... Probably, but at least those of us on the sidelines didn't just buy in at the top, then lose a significant portion of money before hoping the market comes back up to our buy in price any time soon. I have been in the market several times this year, just didn't make very good decisions as to when to be in or out, which is the risk I take deciding to not buy & hold. Yalls risk is when the market goes down, you lose; I chose to try to not be in the market when it goes down.

Not sure any of that made sense since I just woke up and will now go make breakfast for my family. I don't mean any disrespect in anything I write, just want to get the point across that we all have different styles and no matter how many times BT, JJ, or any other PermaBull buy and holder comes by, they won't change my decision... I choose not to buy high. If that means I stay on the sidelines until we get a meaningful dip, then that is my decision.
 
Thanx for the excellent read from Duarte and Rosa. When this bull is ready to keel over, it will be from too much revelry, not an excess of caution.
 
Been on vacation with only my iPhone to work with. I can see I have 4 notifications, but can't check them (as far as I know) till I get to a computer. Maybe Monday night ish.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
When the DJIA continues to lead with the S&P-500 and NASDAQ lagging, that is a shift to large cap "safe" investments... these markets are inflated and continue to make technical analysis difficult and fundamental analysis useless (majority of stocks missed and we still go up), I find it more difficult to make a decision to jump in.
Click to expand...

No disrespect taken. Believe me, I'm not trying to start a buy/hold vs trade debate and by no means would I tell anyone to pile in right here right now.

You do make some good points and it's good to see you mention sector weighting. A few months old link, but still shows the big picture.
The S&P 500, Sector by Sector - WSJ.com

My big take away is that financials are down and energy is up from average levels. Everything else might be slightly off, but the +/- is insignificant. Some day, the energy sector will lost market weight like the Financials did in 2008. For now though, Financials should be leading, but that hasn't been the case for the past 3 years. If corporations with access to free money can't increase their share price, then something is wrong.
 
Well, USD is getting pushed down and the dip buyers are already awake in the S&P-500 futures!!

Looks like another great day to be in the market.
 
And now the USD is getting bought as is the futures, even stronger open now... So even if we open a little down, the gap will get filled and then to new highs!!
 
Jump in the retail sales numbers so we are positive again on sales.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in April from March, beating expectations for sales to fall 0.3%. Excluding the auto segment, sales were down 0.1%, matching expectations.
Click to expand...

Markets are reacting favorably while the USD is getting a big bounce from the report!!

Options Expiration week, so expect more volatility this week, but that doesn't mean down...
 
Bonds are down, getting beat down actually...

Stocks are up from this morning (remember, more volatility), but still down on the day...

Institutional investors are heading to lunch, so volume will plummet; however, since the markets have already filled the gap open it is much more likely that we will close up...

Have fun yall

P.S. Bad news is good, good news is good, and the Fed news is just BS... BTW, there is nothing else to put your money in except stocks, so I presume we will only continue to go up... Oh, and there are always more bulls than bears :D
 
Well, it looks like the institutions are back from lunch and decided they didn't like the direction the market was going...

Market volume is still low, so who knows what can happen. This little volume almost makes one feel like Mom & Pop can move the prices...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

J
returning
Replies
1
Views
286
tsptalk
tsptalk
quabit
Retiring/TSP process questions
Replies
7
Views
526
JD1964
J
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
739
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
375
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
JTH
  • Article Article
Blog: Wk-18 Oversold or under appreciated?
Replies
0
Views
170
JTH
JTH
Back
Top