RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

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Cactus said:
Interesting article. Looking at the line on the chart of the NYSE Margin Debt (bottom chart) I can see it's up there at the 2007 level. But the first thing I noticed about the line is that the slope of the line isn't currently as steep as the peaks in 2000 & 2007. I don't know if that means anything, but it certainly looks like the euphoria at the peaks leads to the maximum amount of borrowing. If that's the case, I'd say we aren't there yet. Just my 2 cents worth.
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Nope, not there yet, but we will be soon (don't read into that for a time frame)... Bubbles will do what bubbles do... burst
 
I think you guys (no one in particular but many on this board) over analyze this and by the time you decide to jump in, the market is on a reversal. Then you say "see, I knew it was coming down".

Why not use reverse psychology on yourselves, like contemplate getting out but not really. Then when the market goes up, you can say "See, I knew it was going up". ;)
 
jkenjohnson said:
You taking the plunge today?
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No, I just don't like the low volume float up in the market and with TSP, we just don't have the flexibility to move out quickly. I will probably just wait for a dip (not correction)... sorry BT


jpcavin said:
I think you guys (no one in particular but many on this board) over analyze this and by the time you decide to jump in, the market is on a reversal. Then you say "see, I knew it was coming down".

Why not use reverse psychology on yourselves, like contemplate getting out but not really. Then when the market goes up, you can say "See, I knew it was going up". ;)
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Perfectly said by someone IN the market... Maybe next time...
 
This situation reminds me of the time in 2008 when I bought my daughter 52 toxic waste financials. We would rather take this good enough opportunity and then find we could have gotten an even better opportunity by waiting, than to wait and miss the opportunity altogether. Sure glad we bought all those stinkers when we did. We didn't know where the bottom was but we did have the ability to know when a fundamental situation is good enough for us to take a long term position. It was not for the faint of heart but someday these stocks will help pay for her kids educations.
 
Come to think of it, if you had been IN the market in either C, S, or I and done NOTHING (instead of timing the market), you would be ahead of me. :rolleyes:
 
jpcavin said:
Come to think of it, if you had been IN the market in either C, S, or I and done NOTHING (instead of timing the market), you would be ahead of me. :rolleyes:
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jp, thats me i did nothing... whether im ahead of you thats another story, but i like the way you think. :D
 
Small dip in the USD and the ES futures this morning, but like clockwork 9am brought the dip buyers...

Lets see how high they get this market before profit takers stop by (I actually believe it is the institutions selling into the retail investors) at around 1000-1030 and then off to more peaks...

OBTW, our economy cannot sustain this increase in the stock market without Big Ben... too bad we are increasing our national debt (oh wait, the Fed is "private" yeah right) an additional $1 trillion a year to give the perception that our economy is improving.

Also, what do you think is going to happen when we have to wean the institutional investors off the teet and not only lower QE, but start SELLING all the assets the Fed has bought... I don't know that anyone can calculate the damage that will cause, and no one is predicting that the economy will be good enough to handle that much of an outflow in the markets...

That's trillions folks:
1,000,000,000,000

A million, million and most of us here will never have a million dollars. The government spends nearly 4 million million a year and the Fed spends a million million a year

Seen this?

View attachment 23688
 
Rimmy, stop fretting over the future.... You need to make money when the opportunity presents itself, like now. You make excellent points and in fact, I'm right with you on those concerns. But I'm sorry man, I gotta make cash NOW while the Feds make believe circus is in town.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Small dip in the USD and the ES futures this morning, but like clockwork 9am brought the dip buyers...

Lets see how high they get this market before profit takers stop by (I actually believe it is the institutions selling into the retail investors) at around 1000-1030 and then off to more peaks...
Click to expand...

Well, the dip buyers are starting early today. Must mean another big up day :notrust:
 
JamesE said:
Rimmy, stop fretting over the future.... You need to make money when the opportunity presents itself, like now. You make excellent points and in fact, I'm right with you on those concerns. But I'm sorry man, I gotta make cash NOW while the Feds make believe circus is in town.
Click to expand...

Your right, you gotta do what is best for you, but you have been in all year (for the most part) which is good for you.

I am on the sidelines and don't see (and maybe won't see) a good entry point. Now, since BT will stop by to tinkle on my parade, I am not willing to buy at these highs only to take a loss before moving higher (if it does)...

I am waiting for something that might not come, but at least I am not losing money (poor F funders). I am doing EXACTLY what the TSP board wants me to do, stay in the G fund...
 
Ferdinand left a big pile of bull manure on your front porch - put it in a garden since you don't want it in a portfolio. I think there is incredible strength yet to come. The bulk of this tsunami money still hasn't hit yet.
 
Birchtree said:
Ferdinand left a big pile of bull manure on your front porch - put it in a garden since you don't want it in a portfolio. I think there is incredible strength yet to come. The bulk of this tsunami money still hasn't hit yet.
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More platitudes :(

Sorry, but this market is unhealthy and cannot be compared to any other bull market in history...
 
View attachment 23692

Heading off to my IRA in TDA to buy some SSO (don't want to get too gready)... this is killing me and going against everything I see going on... setting a REALLY TIGHT STOP though...

Leaving TSP in G until we get a dip as buying at market highs is insane...
 
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