RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

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You had asked what makes me successful - I'll respond with this quote from Frank Barbera and thankyou for the opportunity. But first I'll say you'll make a larger contribution to the #700 club come Monday when we get the big bang. "Understanding, absorbing, and processing the lessons of markets past is often one of the key ingredients in putting together a winning investment program and forging a successful investor. While no two economic climates are ever the same, and no two stock markets are ever the same, successful investors tend to have an established historical knowledge that can be employed to help assess complex situations. While history may not repeat precisely, on many occasions, it rhymes." My age has a lot to do with my confidence - and it helps to have deep pockets. It takes money to make money.
 

For anyone who wants to know, Day 0 (Friday) is Options Expiration for the month of May over the last 20 years. Looking at day 0 we can see it closed down 60% of the time (12 of 20) and the average of those closes was -.79%

Day -3 is Tuesday prior to Day 0, Day +3 is the following Wednesday which has closed positive 65% of the time for a .64% average. Looking at this 7-day spread, based on ratios I'd enter on day 0 and exit on day +3. Looking at the averages changes the analysis, making it trickier. To be honest, this data doesn't provide any bias data that can be easily played, but keep in mind, this is based on the Month of May over the last 20 years, other months may have different results.

View attachment 23659
 
JTH said:
For anyone who wants to know, Day 0 (Friday) is Options Expiration for the month of May over the last 20 years. Looking at day 0 we can see it closed down 60% of the time (12 of 20) and the average of those closes was -.79%

Day -3 is Tuesday prior to Day 0, Day +3 is the following Wednesday which has closed positive 65% of the time for a .64% average. Looking at this 7-day spread, based on ratios I'd enter on day 0 and exit on day +3. Looking at the averages changes the analysis, making it trickier. To be honest, this data doesn't provide any bias data that can be easily played, but keep in mind, this is based on the Month of May over the last 20 years, other months may have different results.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the explanation. Is there data available for all months (OptionsEx, 3rd week) so that it can be played. I would assume that this particular week plays out very similar over all months. I also assume that the movement of that particular week depends on the quantity and value of the options being played, so maybe there isn't a correlation...
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Thanks for the explanation. Is there data available for all months (OptionsEx, 3rd week) so that it can be played. I would assume that this particular week plays out very similar over all months. I also assume that the movement of that particular week depends on the quantity and value of the options being played, so maybe there isn't a correlation...
Click to expand...

I only have data for May going back 20 years because there is no pre-made filter that identifies the 3rd Friday, so the filter has to be done by hand which takes about an hour per month. I only plan on doing it as each month arrives, then by this time next year the filter will be already setup.
 
Oh, shoot, nevermind... sorry, I didn't realize it took so darn long... But Thanks!!!

If this is all in Excel or Access, I could probably help make it easier... just sayin'

:D

JTH said:
I only have data for May going back 20 years because there is no pre-made filter that identifies the 3rd Friday, so the filter has to be done by hand which takes about an hour per month. I only plan on doing it as each month arrives, then by this time next year the filter will be already setup.
Click to expand...
 
This market has received the good housekeeping seal of approval. A multi-year global stock market rally is in process. The rise will be led by continous slow economic growth combined with low interest rates. That's one of the best environments for stock investing. Probably the most positive thing about Dow 15,000 is that so many people don't trust it - classic. Bull markets climb a wall of worry.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Interesting. Maybe we will get a pullback soon and I can get back in.
Click to expand...

Probably not, but I haven't been stopped out yet so I will hang on until something actually confirms (SPX close above 1620) a bullish move...

Lots of gaps (ways for the institutions to jump hurdles in the market) and complete lack of volume in the market (yesterday was at multi-month lows) means "someone" doesn't believe in this rally...

Just me, but I am remaining in G until something significant happens... I do have a small play in a volatility ETF as the VIX is low and when it goes, it will goooo....

Have a great day!!
 
Market bottoms can form with a spike up, but market tops seldom form with a spike down. It's more usual to experience two or three local tops in succession. I believe we are at the beginning stages of a breadth thrust in progress.
 
And with this morning's strong gap and move up, I may have to consider a move into S by COB today... grrrr....

With my luck, the markets will drop below 1620 by close and still not confirm this move up. :notrust:
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Chart of the Day: NYSE Margin Debt Raises Eyebrows - MoneyBeat - WSJ
Click to expand...
Interesting article. Looking at the line on the chart of the NYSE Margin Debt (bottom chart) I can see it's up there at the 2007 level. But the first thing I noticed about the line is that the slope of the line isn't currently as steep as the peaks in 2000 & 2007. I don't know if that means anything, but it certainly looks like the euphoria at the peaks leads to the maximum amount of borrowing. If that's the case, I'd say we aren't there yet. Just my 2 cents worth.
 
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