RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

[burrocrat]

don't ever forget this: silver is for groceries, gold is for life.

and if it ever comes to that then 99% of us are already dead.

don't let it bother you, it's a fact you can't change.

if you end up on the other side first, pray for me.

 

[Birchtree]

RMI,

This is how you need to think - from my WSJ. "A common method of valuing companies is to divide their share price by their last 12 months of earnings, known as the price/earnings multiple. On this measure, the S&P 500 index has a P/E multiple of about 15.2, according to market data provider FactSet. According to an analysis by Mr. Paulsen, since 1950, when 10 year Treasury yields already have been above 6%, a one percentage point increase in Treasury rates led to a P/E decline of about 1.5 - for example from 15 to 13.5.

But when yields were below 6%, a one-point increase in yields caused P/Es to jump by about 3.25. Assuming earnings stayed the same, such a P/E jump would lead to stock prices more than 20% above their current level. Investors seem to be seeing through the current 10-year Treasury yield of 1.7% to the yield that might exist if the Federal Reserve weren't in the midst of a massive bond-buying program." Mindylou says when rates start to go the stock market will rise like a rocket ship - buy now and be prepared. You just gotta think longer term and go against consensus that seems rational - the market is often not rational.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Decent start to my week, futures down, and won $5 on SaveUp

View attachment 23351

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

ah nevermind, pre-market dip getting bought up...

heck, even Oscar thinks there might be some selling over the next couple days... and he is almost as bullish as JJ

I guess the sheeple are still in buy the dip mode. I did notice there was a lot of institutional distribution (selling) last week, and the fear induced gold sell off could mean people feel the stock market is the only place to put there money... Perfect situation for a quick drop at some point. I think at this point the institutions don't think there are enough sheeple in the market to justify a sell off in equities.

I will sit in G until there is a reasonable drop in the market before I get a better price to buy in to the S-fund.

Have a great week!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Florida veteran battles city for right to fly flags honoring service members | Fox News

Yet another dictatorial city board trying to over regulate... anyone live in a city like that?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Gotta love this school activity:

Duval schools: "Possible concern" over 4th grade activity on... | www.wokv.com

An interesting post by Jim2010 (not OUR Jim):

Since we're discussing history, constitutional rights and the indoctrination of our children, perhaps the view of Benjamin Franklin on exactly this subject is relevant . "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

Benjamin Franklin - Wikiquote

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Some scary numbers for you to consider when thinking about placing trade stops:

Maybe 7% may be the best place to put a safety stop in, especially when toying with 3x ETFs!!

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Trade
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Trade[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Need an[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Loss[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Recovery[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Add'tl[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]0.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.10%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0001%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]0.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.20%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0004%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]0.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.30%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0009%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]0.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.40%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0016%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]0.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.50%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0025%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]0.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.60%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]0.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.70%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0049%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]0.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.81%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0065%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]0.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.91%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0082%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]1.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1.01%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0101%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]1.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1.52%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0228%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]2.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.04%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0408%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]2.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.56%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0641%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]3.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.09%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.0928%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]3.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3.63%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.1269%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]4.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.17%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.1667%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]4.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.2120%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]5.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.26%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.2632%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]5.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.82%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.3201%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]6.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6.38%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.3830%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]6.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6.95%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.4519%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]7.0%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7.53%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.5269%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]7.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8.11%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.6081%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]8.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8.70%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.6957%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]8.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9.29%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.7896%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]9.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9.89%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.8901%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]9.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10.50%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.9972%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10.0%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]11.11%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1.1111%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]15.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]17.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.6471%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]20.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.0000%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]25.0%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33.33%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8.3333%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]30.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]42.86%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12.8571%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]35.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53.85%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]18.8462%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]40.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.67%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]26.6667%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]45.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]81.82%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]36.8182%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]50.0%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50.0000%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]55.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]122.22%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]67.2222%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]60.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]150.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90.0000%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]65.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]185.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]120.7143%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]70.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]233.33%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]163.3333%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]75.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]300.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]225.0000%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]80.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]400.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]320.0000%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]85.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]566.67%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]481.6667%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]90.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]900.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]810.0000%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]95.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1900.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1805.0000%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]99.0%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9900.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9801.0000%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[burrocrat]

Gotta love this school activity:

Duval schools: "Possible concern" over 4th grade activity on... | www.wokv.com

An interesting post by Jim2010 (not OUR Jim):


Benjamin Franklin - Wikiquote

even more disturbing is after giving up her freedom gauranteed by the constitution the instructor still felt it neccessary to correct the student's spelling. slaves don't need to know how to spell. it's never enough for these people.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Even with a down market, there is no fear... barely even a blip on the VIX this morning.

Oh wait, here comes the POMO induced buying... gonna be an up day :nuts:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Wish I would have been brave and bought some bear silver ETF last Friday, but I really expected a bounce of the sell off on Friday.

Gold and Silver are getting crushed again.

Here come the margin calls, and they will have to sell other stuff to pay off the margin call... could be an interesting afternoon even with the POMO...

Oh, wait, Big Ben must be using up his POMO this morning, market is back to its open :nuts:

Nice that $VIX is up, yet the VXX and TVXY/UVXY are all down/neutral, pieces of junk is what they are...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Well, patience paid off to some extent...

In one of my accounts, I took a sizable position on UVXY Friday afternoon at 6.40 (missed the opportunity for lower entry closer to 6.30) and set a limit order for $7 (got 7.01 on the way up) for a quick 9.4%

Best trade I have had in 6 months and it made up for all the losses YTD and I am sitting at about 8%. Too bad it is not a margin account, so I am out until at least Thursday. TSP is in G, so my IRA is all I have, which is positive (down YTD) for now...

I feel much better right now, even if I left a ton on the table if the markets drop more later (oops, now :nuts...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Hmmm, wondering if I should dabble in XIV as I know if we start buying into the close complacency will set back in and the VIX will go down...

Thoughts?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

The Cody Word - MarketWatch

Has an article:
Time to buy gold, any way you can - The Cody Word - MarketWatch

 

[Birchtree]

This phenomenal bull market just might get even more phenomenal now thanks to this consolidation. This pain will create enough fear to keep mom and pop from charging intio this market just yet. If you are an investor, what you actually want is a Goldilocks economy - not too hot, not too cold.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Well, patience paid off to some extent...

In one of my accounts, I took a sizable position on UVXY Friday afternoon at 6.40 (missed the opportunity for lower entry closer to 6.30) and set a limit order for $7 (got 7.01 on the way up) for a quick 9.4%

Best trade I have had in 6 months and it made up for all the losses YTD and I am sitting at about 8%. Too bad it is not a margin account, so I am out until at least Thursday. TSP is in G, so my IRA is all I have, which is positive (down YTD) for now...

I feel much better right now, even if I left a ton on the table if the markets drop more later (oops, now :nuts...

Well, even though I made 10%, I left 10% on the table... so far...

I am sad

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Listening to CNBC, which has NBC (Tom Brokaw) on and I am amazed that in the last hour, they have never used the word "bomb"... What the heck... really?

device
concussion device
explosive device
these "things"

Um, Tom, these were BOMBS

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Had to chuckle some more (and roll eyes in sarcasm-lol) when I scrolled down below the article to "Sponsored Links".

"SELL YOUR GOLD FOR CASH"

"CASH FOR UNWANTED GOLD"
:toung:

True, that was pretty funny...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Another UVXY trade from yesterday AH with 3% trailing stop netted me over 22% (in at 6.60, out at 8.08) so I am feeling a little better about trading. Just now starting to make up for all my losses to this point this year... just have to make up for last years losses and I will feel much better. Slowly, but Shirley

 

[Birchtree]

More QE apparently to come from Europe with lower rates.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

oops

Egan-Jones downgrades Germany rating to A from A+

Europe isn't going to do so well if Germany starts having problems... it is the only thing holding up the Euro...