RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

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RealMoneyIssues said:
Well, I went back and reversed all my IFTs but my first move this year and guess what... If I had used myself as a contrarian indicator, I would be up 8.19% in my TSP (didn't calculate what my IRA would be at because I didn't want to cry) instead of less than the G-Fund...
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Yeah, I did that with my 2011 trades last year. In my case the reversed trades would have lost over 4% instead of the 3% I actually did lose. That's basically 50:50 which doesn't buy you anything. Your contrarian trades are much better due to the bigger loss, but I'm afraid it would fail you if you tried to make a system out of it. There would be too much double/triple/quadrupal guessing yourself like the smartest man in the word in "The Princess Bride." :cool:
 
jkenjohnson said:
I am right there with you. I could kick my own arse for missing out on this rally. Looks like there is no end to it.
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Yup, good jobs report and markets heading more up. Looks like more upside. I may go S today, too late, but better than missing even more upside...

No pull backs in sight :nuts:
 
Looks like we'll enjoy kicking ourselves even more today. :'(
RealMoneyIssues said:
Well, I went back and reversed all my IFTs but my first move this year and guess what... If I had used myself as a contrarian indicator, I would be up 8.19% in my TSP (didn't calculate what my IRA would be at because I didn't want to cry) instead of less than the G-Fund...

I guess I thought the market would not have kept going up and up... once again, trying to fight the fed...

Of course, if I had used myself as a contrarian indicator, I would be in S right now enjoying more gains...

This is the reason why I am taking time to reflect on what I need to do for the future, because what I am doing now isn't working.
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Cactus said:
Yeah, I kept holding off chasing the market last year but finally gave up in March only to buy high and sell low. :(
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March hurt me as well. I think this year we may last untill July to crack. Whenever we do it will be a doozy. We will eventually pay for the big rally. Something along the lines of last march.
 
clester said:
March hurt me as well. I think this year we may last untill July to crack. Whenever we do it will be a doozy. We will eventually pay for the big rally. Something along the lines of last march.
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That's what I'm afraid of. I don't have the sticky pants to last until July. I got burned in May the last 3 years so I'm definitely leaning toward a Sell-In-May approach this year.
 
Here's the hard part. When it's time to buy it will feel terrible with lots of anxiety and you'll say. no way am I buying here. Just do it. Take a 100% C position and don't look back for the next several years. What is perhaps more encouraging is the fact that 5% declines do not usually result in a further 10% decline especially in bull markets. Ride the wooley beast and hang on tight.
 
Birchtree said:
Here's the hard part. When it's time to buy it will feel terrible with lots of anxiety and you'll say. no way am I buying here. Just do it. Take a 100% C position and don't look back for the next several years. What is perhaps more encouraging is the fact that 5% declines do not usually result in a further 10% decline especially in bull markets. Ride the wooley beast and hang on tight.
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Our current cyclical bull has thus far been a more supercharged version of 2003 onwards. I posted a 500 chart yesterday - check it out.
 
weatherweenie said:
Showing some signs of selling the news. Still VERY early though.
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Sounds good, means I will get a lower buy in price and when they pop the market up and go higher on Monday I will finally be participating
woot.gif
 
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