crommie
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- Thread starter RealMoneyIssues
- Start date
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Uh, oh. Confirmation of what?
crommie
Member
That today is a sell day...
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Doesn't look to be so far, but who knows what "The Manipulator" will do this afternoon.
Have a great week-end and thanks for stopping by
jkenjohnson
Active member
You need to stay up until you get the OCD chart updated. We depend on it.
You can sleep at work.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight... not
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Haven't heard a whole lot of snorting from you today. Feeling lost without Birchtree?
Nah, just busy with work... been here too much as it is...
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
RMI's OCD Chart:
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 1200"]
[TR]
[TD].
Trading
Date[/TD]
[TD].
Seven
Sentinels[/TD]
[TD]TSP
Talk
SS[/TD]
[TD]Top 5
In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD]Top
10 In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD].
Season
-ality[/TD]
[TD].
.
Uptrend[/TD]
[TD]Mr
John
Ross[/TD]
[TD]J
Ken
Johnson[/TD]
[TD].
10 Mon
M-SMA [/TD]
[TD].
LMBF
Method[/TD]
[TD]Non-TSP
Buy/Sell
Model[/TD]
[TD]Long-
Short
Timing[/TD]
[TD]Signal
????
lol[/TD]
[TD]In a
Perfect
World[/TD]
[TD]My IRA
Realized
Returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Term[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Weight?[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]SPX[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27-Feb[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Short-717[/TD]
[TD]Safe-168[/TD]
[TD]Long-103[/TD]
[TD]Short-774[/TD]
[TD]Long-257[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Sell[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell-3[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28-Feb[/TD]
[TD]Sell
[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]Short-702[/TD]
[TD]Safe-168[/TD]
[TD]Long-91[/TD]
[TD]Short-749[/TD]
[TD]Long-260[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Sell[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29-Feb[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]67%[/TD]
[TD]Short-703[/TD]
[TD]Safe-166[/TD]
[TD]Long-118[/TD]
[TD]Short-745[/TD]
[TD]Long-268[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Sell[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]63%[/TD]
[TD]Short-682[/TD]
[TD]Safe-142[/TD]
[TD]Long-128[/TD]
[TD]Short-708[/TD]
[TD]Long-301[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy-5[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]Short-726[/TD]
[TD]Safe-172[/TD]
[TD]Long-123[/TD]
[TD]Long-781[/TD]
[TD]Long-275[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]61%[/TD]
[TD]Short-676[/TD]
[TD]Safe-136[/TD]
[TD]Long-138[/TD]
[TD]Long-951[/TD]
[TD]Long-282[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]46%[/TD]
[TD]Short-667[/TD]
[TD]Safe-126[/TD]
[TD]Long-142[/TD]
[TD]Long-958[/TD]
[TD]Long-300[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Short-580[/TD]
[TD]Safe-25[/TD]
[TD]Long-170[/TD]
[TD]Long-961[/TD]
[TD]Long-420[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]Short-620[/TD]
[TD]Safe-66[/TD]
[TD]Long-135[/TD]
[TD]Long-957[/TD]
[TD]Long-440[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9-Mar[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]59%[/TD]
[TD]Short-682[/TD]
[TD]Safe-132[/TD]
[TD]Long-134[/TD]
[TD]Long-954[/TD]
[TD]Long-327[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12-Mar
[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]Short-725[/TD]
[TD]Safe-150[/TD]
[TD]Long-99[/TD]
[TD]Long-774[/TD]
[TD]Long-367[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Sell-5
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Mar[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]63%[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Ok, so I am not sure why it is on a sell as the market goes up... oh wait, that is because J-Trader is on a short... hmmm, I guess we will see where this market goes, but is J-Trader a fortune teller?
Over the last couple weeks Mr. Ross has gone to safety and the Seven Sentinels has... but why? What do those systems know that the overall market doesn't?
J-Trader is, well, a trader... so he is looking at the very short term and will move long and short much more often than SS, 7 Sentinels, and the other medium term systems.
The 10 Month M-SMA has gone long to parallel the LMBF, both long term systems. What does all that mean? I will gnaw on that and see if I can figure it out. How about you?
Have a great week-end everyone and remember, next week is Options-Ex so expect craziness !!
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Looks like you are trying to catch up...
Well, this is the last one for today.
Good Night !
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Yes, but not at the bottom, so I have some making up to do, and apparently I am doing it slowly...
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
RMI's OCD Chart:
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 1100"]
[TR]
[TD].
Trading
Date[/TD]
[TD]Top 5
In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD]Top
10 In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD].
Season
-ality[/TD]
[TD]Long-
Short
Timing[/TD]
[TD].
10 Mon
M-SMA [/TD]
[TD].
LMBF
Method[/TD]
[TD].
.
Uptrend[/TD]
[TD].
Seven
Sentinels[/TD]
[TD]TSP
Talk
SS[/TD]
[TD]Mr
John
Ross[/TD]
[TD]J
Ken
Johnson[/TD]
[TD]Non-TSP
Buy/Sell
Model[/TD]
[TD]Signal
????
lol[/TD]
[TD]In a
Perfect
World[/TD]
[TD]My IRA
Realized
Returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Term[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Weight?[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]SPX[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27-Feb[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-774[/TD]
[TD]Long-257[/TD]
[TD]Short-717[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-168[/TD]
[TD]Long-103[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Sell[/TD]
[TD]Sell-3[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28-Feb[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-749[/TD]
[TD]Long-260[/TD]
[TD]Short-702[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-168[/TD]
[TD]Long-91[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Sell[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29-Feb[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]67%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-745[/TD]
[TD]Long-268[/TD]
[TD]Short-703[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-166[/TD]
[TD]Long-118[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Sell[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1-Mar[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]63%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-708[/TD]
[TD]Long-301[/TD]
[TD]Short-682[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-142[/TD]
[TD]Long-128[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-5[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2-Mar[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-781[/TD]
[TD]Long-275[/TD]
[TD]Short-726[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-172[/TD]
[TD]Long-123[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5-Mar[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]61%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-951[/TD]
[TD]Long-282[/TD]
[TD]Short-676[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-136[/TD]
[TD]Long-138[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6-Mar[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]46%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-958[/TD]
[TD]Long-300[/TD]
[TD]Short-667[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-126[/TD]
[TD]Long-142[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7-Mar[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-961[/TD]
[TD]Long-420[/TD]
[TD]Short-580[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-25[/TD]
[TD]Long-170[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8-Mar[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-957[/TD]
[TD]Long-440[/TD]
[TD]Short-620[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-66[/TD]
[TD]Long-135[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9-Mar[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]59%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-954[/TD]
[TD]Long-327[/TD]
[TD]Short-682[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-132[/TD]
[TD]Long-134[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12-Mar[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-774[/TD]
[TD]Long-367[/TD]
[TD]Short-725[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-150[/TD]
[TD]Long-99[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Sell-5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Mar
[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]63%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-910[/TD]
[TD]Long-379[/TD]
[TD]Short-697[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-135[/TD]
[TD]Long-107[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14-Mar[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]44%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Well, the signal is still on a sell and it is becoming a stronger sell, probably only because of the lowered amounts of people in stocks in the Top 5/10. I do see that if none of the systems change their signals, it will only get stronger with the upcoming 44% Seasonality. With all the sideways movement in the market, all we can do is wait to see what the market holds.
Remember, it is OptionsEx week AND the end of the quarter which makes it Triple-Witching (or maybe even Quad-Witching, but I am not an options trader to know exactly)...
So, be careful out there... the large traders are in control and this week, more so than others, the option houses will manipulate the markets to cause options to expire or to turn them in their favor. Expect volatility to increase as the week progresses and larger swings to happen.
There was very little volume in the market and if it increases through the week, it is very possible that we will have a big breakout... one way or the other
With the systems' system on a sell, I might put my bets with a break down; but the markets haven't really had any definitive direction WITH volume, so who knows...
Good Luck to All !!
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
RMI's OCD Chart:
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 1100"]
[TR]
[TD].
Trading
Date[/TD]
[TD]Top 5
In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD]Top
10 In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD].
Season
-ality[/TD]
[TD]Long-
Short
Timing[/TD]
[TD].
10 Mon
M-SMA [/TD]
[TD].
LMBF
Method[/TD]
[TD].
.
Uptrend[/TD]
[TD].
Seven
Sentinels[/TD]
[TD]TSP
Talk
SS[/TD]
[TD]Mr
John
Ross[/TD]
[TD]J
Ken
Johnson[/TD]
[TD]Non-TSP
Buy/Sell
Model[/TD]
[TD]Signal
????
lol[/TD]
[TD]In a
Perfect
World[/TD]
[TD]My IRA
Realized
Returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Term[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Weight?[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]SPX[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27-Feb[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-774[/TD]
[TD]Long-257[/TD]
[TD]Short-717[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-168[/TD]
[TD]Long-103[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Sell[/TD]
[TD]Sell-3[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28-Feb[/TD]
[TD]60%
[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-749[/TD]
[TD]Long-260[/TD]
[TD]Short-702[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-168[/TD]
[TD]Long-91[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Sell[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29-Feb[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]67%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-745[/TD]
[TD]Long-268[/TD]
[TD]Short-703[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-166[/TD]
[TD]Long-118[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Sell[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1-Mar[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]63%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-708[/TD]
[TD]Long-301[/TD]
[TD]Short-682[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-142[/TD]
[TD]Long-128[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-5[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2-Mar[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-781[/TD]
[TD]Long-275[/TD]
[TD]Short-726[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-172[/TD]
[TD]Long-123[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5-Mar[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]61%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-951[/TD]
[TD]Long-282[/TD]
[TD]Short-676[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-136[/TD]
[TD]Long-138[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6-Mar[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]46%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-958[/TD]
[TD]Long-300[/TD]
[TD]Short-667[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-126[/TD]
[TD]Long-142[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7-Mar[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-961[/TD]
[TD]Long-420[/TD]
[TD]Short-580[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-25[/TD]
[TD]Long-170[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8-Mar[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-957[/TD]
[TD]Long-440[/TD]
[TD]Short-620[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-66[/TD]
[TD]Long-135[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9-Mar[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]59%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-954[/TD]
[TD]Long-327[/TD]
[TD]Short-682[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-132[/TD]
[TD]Long-134[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12-Mar[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-774[/TD]
[TD]Long-367[/TD]
[TD]Short-725[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-150[/TD]
[TD]Long-99[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Sell-5[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Mar[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]63%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-910[/TD]
[TD]Long-379[/TD]
[TD]Short-697[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-135[/TD]
[TD]Long-107[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14-Mar
[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]44%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-660[/TD]
[TD]Long-342[/TD]
[TD]Long-818[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe-193
[/TD]
[TD]Long-89[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Buy-5
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15-Mar[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]67%[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Well, well, well... Now the systems' signal is a buy, but let me clarify that it is a buy by a hair (50 is the cut-off and it is at 50).
I don't buy it, I think it is just because of the big hope in the markets today pushing the TSP-5/10 list to 100/100. I would rather sit on the sidelines and see if there is any follow through before buying in. The 7Sentinels is almost on a buy, but again, is waiting for confirmation.
Be careful out there !!!
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Bear with me, going to think out loud about your OCD for a bit. I'm going to refer to models by their time frame...so "short" will be the Non-tsp buy/sell model. To avoid confusion, I will discuss positions as buy or sell (rather than long or short)
I keep looking at your chart and trying to determine a way to more effectively consider the time frames each model has. I LIKE the way you've arranged them long to short.
I see you've played with the weightings a fair bit but have kept the med. time frame models with the heaviest weight.
Given the cutoff your working with, 50, you'll likely need at least 3 of the med/short term models to be in agreement to trigger a buy/sell, which is good if agreement is what you want.
The non-tsp but/sell will add certainty when "in phase" with the med term models...but will be hard pressed to trigger signal switch until two or more medium time frame models also gets a signal switch. This keeps things slow...but I worry it's too slow. I mean the short model could go sell, then a medium goes sell. Then the short could go back to a buy before another medium turns sell...in which case you'd need the 3rd medium or the short to hit a 2nd sell before the OCD can have any chance of triggering an official OCD sell. It seems a lot of damage could be done by that point.
So this has me wondering about a way to quantify whether or not the short term and 1,2 or 3 med term models are in phase. Or not. Maybe a multiplier? e.g. 1 med model and the short agree and the multiplier is x, 2 med models and short agree and multiplier is y, 3 meds and short agree multiplier is z. Obviously I don't have specific values in mind, but you get the point.
Next I wonder how this could be aggregated for use with ETFs and TSP, since obviously, different investments should have different time horizons. The IFT rules make for rather arbitrary horizons in TSP, but it is what it is. So...this brings me back to the multiplier idea. You could have different multipliers optimized for different time frames. e.g. a way to artificially enhance the weight value of the shorter term models to apply towards ETF trading.
Obviously I've neglected the long term models. Given the weights currently ascribed they are definitely not "driving" the system...but it seems some credence should be given to situation where they are all aligned.
That's enough rambling for today and obviously this gets complicated quick. Thanks for keeping this aggregated table, it holds a lot of information.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
I will reflect on this and reply later. I have a paper due tonite and I really shouldn't even be reading this... I hate writing... ok, formal writing.
Thanks, reps and likes to you for your time and effort !!!
Well writing a paper always requires breaks to clear one's head a bit. So let me clarify one thing, because I think my thinking out loud made things a bit more complicated than needed. Don't focus on the multiplier idea...that was just off the cuff.
The real meat I'm trying to get at is measuring the extent to which the models are in agreement (in phase). I think this OCD can be more actionable if you look at the qualitative agreements or disagreements rather than trying to ascribe a quantitative "score". My own thoughts were sidetracked a bit by considering the different time frames of each model. The time frames are important but I think the extent to which the different models agree is more important.
7 sentinels operates in a similar manner. First the indicators must agree, then certain quantitative milestones can trigger an "official" buy or sell switch.
Make sense? Ok, go get back to work...plenty of time to ponder the merits, or lack thereof, this ramble.
Thanks for the rep points!Similar threads
