RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

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I can't find anyone who is claiming TA is working for them. The market is just doing what ever it wants to... Is this the beginning of fear investing?
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
I can't find anyone who is claiming TA is working for them. The market is just doing what ever it wants to... Is this the beginning of fear investing?
Click to expand...

Then you haven't been reading Uptrend's account.

It seems to me that after massive interference with QE1 and QE2, the technicals are finally working again. My downside target is 540 to 510 on the ewm.
 
malyla said:
Then you haven't been reading Uptrend's account.

It seems to me that after massive interference with QE1 and QE2, the technicals are finally working again. My downside target is 540 to 510 on the ewm.
Click to expand...
Sorry, saw that as wave analysis...

Did you mean EMW (Wilshire 4500)?

Thanks
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Sorry, saw that as wave analysis...

Did you mean EMW (Wilshire 4500)?

Thanks
Click to expand...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_Wave_Principle
"The Elliott Wave Principle is a form of technical analysis that traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors."

http://www.elliottwave.com/introduction/technical_analysis.aspx
"Bob Prechter, Elliott Wave International's founder and president, has called the Elliott Wave Principle “the purest form of technical analysis.” He explains, “The Wave Principle is a catalog of the ways that the crowd goes from the extreme point of pessimism at the bottom to the extreme point of optimism at the top. It is a description of the steps human beings go through when they are part of the investment crowd, to change their psychological orientation from bullish to bearish. Since people don’t change much, the path they follow in moving from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism and back again tends to be the same over and over, regardless of news and extraneous events.” "

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis
"Technical analysis is a financial term used to denote a security analysis discipline for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.[SUP][1][/SUP]Behavioral economics and quantitative analysis incorporate technical analysis, which being an aspect of active management stands in contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory. The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by efficient-market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable.[SUP][2][/SUP]



Yes, I meant EMW.:embarrest:
 
Please explain the difference between subjective and objective analysis in regards to TA. Are you saying that Elliott Wave and Head and Shoulders TA are subjective?
 
malyla said:
Please explain the difference between subjective and objective analysis in regards to TA. Are you saying that Elliott Wave and Head and Shoulders TA are subjective?
Click to expand...

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/objectivity

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/subjectivity

The way I look at it, Elliot Wave is undoubtably TA(by popular definition); however, after doing some research on it's usage it seemed to me that it is extremely subjective (depends on one opinion) as so many analysts differ on where we are on a particular wave or trend.

So, I think I will just stop here. I have stated my thoughts on wave theory and I don't want to get into a philosophical argument over this subject as I am sure to lose. I am just starting out on all of this.

Just my 2 cents, nothing more, and a whole lot less :D
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/objectivity

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/subjectivity

The way I look at it, Elliot Wave is undoubtably TA(by popular definition); however, after doing some research on it's usage it seemed to me that it is extremely subjective (depends on one opinion) as so many analysts differ on where we are on a particular wave or trend.

So, I think I will just stop here. I have stated my thoughts on wave theory and I don't want to get into a philosophical argument over this subject as I am sure to lose. I am just starting out on all of this.

Just my 2 cents, nothing more, and a whole lot less :D
Click to expand...

I will admit that Elliott wave does have wave definition issue between analysts and the head and shoulders can be hard to see until after the fact, but the quantitative TA which draws lines at gaps and support/resistance levels is just as bad as it states that those lines will eventually be tested again but gives no time frame until the test is underway. Then short term buy and sells can be predicted. I use both the quantitative and pattern TA to give a trend (from pattern) and turning points (support/resistance lines and FIB levels) to make my decisions. Quantitative TA also uses trend lines that usually mirror the extremes of the 50BB that is useful in determining turning points, but seeing a pattern forming gives more long term information on the possible future direction of the market. My two cents.:D
 
There are flaws in EW, it works till it doesn't than they re-write it to make it work again. Whatever, each TA concept has it's own flaws to deal with, I choose not to specialize in this area, but that doesn't mean I'm quick to dismiss it. Market's rotate to different things, you have to be flexable enough to adapt to these changes as they happen.

If Uptrend's view of EW is working than accept it (flow with the water brother.) My trending systems are not working, this means I have to find what is working and make it work for me. I'm not a fan of EW, but if you can't beat em then join em :)
 
JTH said:
If Uptrend's view of EW is working than accept it (flow with the water brother.) My trending systems are not working, this means I have to find what is working and make it work for me. I'm not a fan of EW, but if you can't beat em then join em :)
Click to expand...
Excellent point, thank you.
 
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