Reactive1's Account Talk

Reactive1

Member
Wow, I finally made it in!!! I've become an avid market watcher but in no way claim the technical knowledge some might have. I successfully missed out on the 2000 time frame downturn (tech bubble) and have had some other successes (and failures) moving in and out of the stock funds. I feel fortunate to have only been hit with about a 1.5% loss or so in the recent downturn and have moved recently to...

20% G
20% F
20% C
20% S
20% I

This is a rare position for me. I jumped too soon and hoped that the market bottom had hit, even as scared as I was of a re-test, and I was wrong but committed to this week anyway of being allocated in this way, with a relatively minor hedge with the F and G funds. For next week, we will see, and I am open to taking chances. Wednesday was fortunate for retrieving Tuesday's losses so I feel pretty good right now. Best of luck to everyone!!!
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Welcome to the Message Board Reactive1. Lots of action here, the best of luck with your investments.
Norman:D
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

This is a great place Reactive...just follow the actions of the leaders (See Weekly Tally), and watch the various systems (Trader Fred, Ebb) and you'll learn a great deal. I know I have..

Best of Luck Investing,

FS
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Nice to see you finally got in Reactive1. Sorry for the hassle. Bad timing.

Welcome!
Tom
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Re-allocation for Wednesday

20%G
80%F

I think the markets will at least make an attempt to ride today's (Friday) pop into Tuesday. It wouldn't surprise me to see a solid day, at worst perhaps flat, I hope. But I think that makes Wednesday a pullback day.

Bernake's comments, once deciphered, in reality, seem to offer little hope or certainty for a rate cut. I'm tempted to ask, if it was such a great idea, why wouldn't it already have been done? It's possible the stategy is to be less reactive than Greenspan was and I think Bernake definately is thinking more long term. He's a pure academic and he may not be at all inclined to give the market what it wants if he doesn't KNOW that this is the answer. His problem in the short term is that typical economic data in the immediate time frame is not necessarily useful to him given what has happened. Even a watch of the markets on such low volume doesn't reveal much. The markets aren't his job, but he has no choice but to pay attention. And even given all of that, the housing/subprime issue actually falls outside of his ability to effect. Mortgages are now primarily held by the capital markets, not by banks, and fed action will not directly supply the capital markets, thats the piece of information the pro-rate cut side doesn't seem to acknowledge and Bernake of course DOES know that and I believe may not be convinced. Any sign that he isn't going to cut on Sept 18, regardless if that's the right decision or not, will have a huge negative impact on equities. It makes our job here very difficult.
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

TSP officials eye limits on trades

Mike Causey
September 4, 2007
Many financial analysts, including Vanguard founder John C. Bogle, consider the federal Thrift Savings Plan to be the best 401(k) anywhere.


The huge TSP is worth more than $200 billion. Most working feds, many retirees and active and retired military people count on the program for a substantial chunk of their retirement income. The TSP is considered a best buy for several reasons:


The administrative fees, or charges to manage your account, are the lowest in the business by a wide margin.


Most TSP investors — everyone under the FERS retirement system — are eligible for a matching contribution of up to 5 percent after putting in 5 percent or more of their salary. Even FERS employees who contribute nothing have accounts into which the government contributes the equivalent of 1 percent of their salary. Those matching contributions, whether 1 percent, 2 percent or 5 percent, are equivalent to a tax-deferred pay raise.


The rate of super-safe Treasury securities G Fund is set and guaranteed by the government. The fund is available only to civilian and military investors in the TSP.


Numerous people — many of them former highly paid lawyers turned federal judges — switched substantial money from their individual retirement accounts, 401(k) plans and other tax-deferred programs into the TSP. They realize the TSP is a better, safer, less-expensive investment vehicle. Many of them now have million-dollar TSP accounts.


The program receives annual oversight from Congress to the Labor Department and the General Accountability Office. Many members of Congress and their staffers have their retirement nest eggs in the TSP, along with generals, admirals, astronauts, federal law-enforcement personnel and rank-and-file civil servants.


So, if the TSP is so great, why is it studying private-sector 401(k) plans looking for improvement?

One reason is that the ups and downs of the stock market since February have many TSP investors jumping in and out of their stock-indexed funds — particularly the international-indexed I Fund — and into and out of the safety of the Treasury securities G Fund. Because of the way the TSP's interfund transfer system is set up, investors can't day trade, making instant transfers. But they can participate in what amounts to next-day trading, which can produce even more surprises in a market that can lose or gain 200 points in a matter of hours.



As Bethesda-based financial planner Dennis Gurtz said, people who attempt to time the market, or guess when it has peaked and tanked, "have to be right twice: when they go out and when they return." He said being out of the market on just 10 or 12 key days can reduce the overall return for that year.



In March, roughly 35,000 TSP investors moved about $1.7 billion from the stock index funds — mostly the I Fund — into the Treasury securities or bond funds. TSP officials said they "discourage active trading" because the TSP is a long-term investment.



At the same time that a small percentage of investors are into "active" trading, nearly a half-million investors in the TSP's Lifecycle funds are doing the opposite. Lifecycle funds base their constantly changing mix of stocks, bonds and the G Fund based on target dates. Those dates, like the year 2020 or 2040, are when investors anticipate they will begin tapping their TSP accounts. Those target dates are often later, in some cases much later, than the date of retirement. As the value of stocks drops, the target L funds buy more shares to maintain the proper target percentage value in their particular L fund. When stocks go up, they sell shares to maintain the target balance. Those funds are adjusted automatically every day.



Investors who make frequent trades do not have to pay any higher fees than those who seldom, if ever, make changes. The question facing TSP officials is whether to charge active trades, and if so, how much. They are looking at successful private-sector 401(k) plans to see what they do. Do they have limits on the number of interfund transfers that can be made? Do they have an absolute limit on the number or timing of trades, or do they charge extra when an investor goes over the company 401(k) plan limit? If so, what is a reasonable limit, and a reasonable charge that will apply to active traders, not the total TSP investor population?



The answers won't be available for some time. But for investors both active and passive, they need to be asked — and answered.
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Whew, looks like I guessed right for today anyway. Markets jumped on essentially nothing except I guess a lot of traders coming off vacation and looking for good buys. But I would be very surprised to see a follow-on good day Wednesday with traders waiting on unemployment numbers Friday, Wednesday and Thursday, in September, and in the current market...well, I hope I'm wrong for those of you in but I am still moving Wednesday to 80 F and 20 G. I don't normally move this much, but you guys sort of have me inspired and I find these very unique times. Bad employment numbers could actually help the markets on Friday if traders use the bad to assume an almost for sure rate cut as a result. What I don't know is if the current market has already built in the assumption of the expected rate cut. So Friday will be tough call, at least for me.
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Staying with

20%G
80%F

New volatility on the way in my opinion but no money to be made. It will take nothing to drive a bad day (or a good one) but in the end in the short term I don't see any gain.
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Well, glad I was out of the stock funds for today of course, and since I didn't get the chance to make a IFT for Monday I'll just stick with

20%G
80%F

Monday will surely be a rebound day, almost for sure anyway, but with Sept. 11 looming, I can't imagine a true gain over the two day period. The employment numbers are very troubling, even for the strongest bulls, it can't be denied that's a bad number with the only good news being that employment is a lagging indicator. Still, it's a downtrend and I personally find the immediate future of the markets to be a great unknown.

The F Fund is the place to be. The F Fund makes money when the Prime is falling, period. There may be a chance to make some quick money prior to the Sept. 18 meeting and on the 18th, but it's all folly. History shows that when the Fed cuts the rate, it takes the S&P with it. Of course there will be an immediate pop, but it's not something that will last because cutting the Prime is not the answer to the current combination of capital and economic and monetary issues, IMO. Yes, the Fed probably should cut the Prime, but that will not help the housing sector significantly because it doesn't direct money where it's needed. It doesn't direct money to the capital markets where the mortgages are held primarily.

Greenspan has even chimed in.


"The behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987," said Greenspan, according to The Wall Street Journal. "The jobs data are saying the Fed has to cut rates, but Greenspan has come out saying it's not going to make a difference."

He just didn't say why. But the why is, again, because liquidity (if thats the right term) produced by a rate cut effects banks, it doesn't effect capital markets. It might certainly be beneficial to some in certain situations, but it won't help those who need it, nor is it necessarily the case that those in a "need" situation even SHOULD be helped by manipulating monetary policy.
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Tuesday:

50% G
25% C
25% S

Well tommorrow will be interesting. I don't anticipate a sell-off on a .25 cut although I hold it out as a possibility. A .50 cut should cause an uptick but I don't think it will be overly lucrative. I'm taking a bit of a chance as a short-term bull and rolling the dice on this, admittedly. We saw the same thing happen in 1987, 1998, and 2000 when in the midst of a "solid" economy the fed nonetheless was compelled by events to go down the road of cuts in the prime rate, and after each we saw a major sell-off if not an outright correction follow. The cut is not just a gift, it's an acknowledgement that all is not well short term. I think it would be a major mistake for the fed to cut just .25, unless they really want to just completely ignore a market that has already priced in a full basis point in cuts over the next 12 months. The risk of sell-off on a cut would be disastrous for Fed policy however much it might be true that it isn't their job to "work" the markets. Reality is reality, and confidence and sentiment matter. If they don't handle this well, the real effect of the housing downturn in general along with the sentiment caused by lower house values and that effect on consumer spending, in my opinion, could lead to a major correction.
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Wednesday:

100% G

Wow, glad I jumped in but I was wrong about the reaction to the .50 cut. In a probably overly cautious move I jumped to the sidelines again. I'm thinking of a position to lock into for the rest of the year. I know I should be more aggressive but I follow my instincts. If I had thought it out more, or more precisely if I were able to change my IFT after seeing the afternoon super-rally, I would stay in for tommorrow as well. Tommorrow will be another great day IMO. Oh well.
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Saturday
50%G
15%C
15%S
20%I
http://www.tsptalk.com/help.html :)
IMPORTANT:
If you want to make a fund transfer , the deadline each day is 12 noon EST. If you complete the transaction before noon EST your new allocation will begin the next morning. If you miss the 12 noon EST deadline your money will be moved the following day. To have a transaction effective on a Monday, you must meet the deadline on Friday at noon.
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Thursday:

50%G
50%F

Unexpected weakness, I was hoping for an upturn and have just lost on the week (actually broke dead even with my contribution) so I'm hoping tommorrow is up nice, but like some others, I've decided I don't want to be around on Thursday for the housing numbers. I'll re-evaluate Thursday morning and might just stay in place for Friday also.
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Bernanke opens a prices conference, in Washington too at 1:00 PM ET. No Q&A.

Frederic Mishkin (FOMC voting member) will discuss globalization and the monetary policy at a prices conference, in Washington. Audience get to throw in their 2 cents on this one. 7:00 PM ET.
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Friday:

G: 20%
F: 20%
C: 30%
S: 30%

I'm going to gamble. I'm very skiddish in the current environment and I don't mind admitting that at all. I've been 50 G 50F and it's worked out ok just missing the 20 point day on Monday, so I could be up a little more had I been "IN" but I'm being careful. But I will take a chance here for Friday and re-evaluate my position that morning. I don't agree with some that the market might fall on good numbers. I think good numbers will create at least a one day upturn despite the risk of future rate cuts being in peril. It may be a subdued upturn, but I would expect an up day regardless. It's a gamble on the numbers, and on the reaction, but I've decided to take the risk. Best of luck to everyone!
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Tuesday:

50% G
20% F
10% C
10% S
10% I

Woo-hoo!!! Good day that my account needed. I don't have much but this is my geezer money! I don't think the jobs report was as strong as some suggest but the revised numbers from previous months gives greater weight to the 110k. The risk of recession is far weaker with these numbers but we still have to be cautious. I will not go super strong in equities in October, the most evil month of all for the stock market historically. I think it's only prudent to be careful while we lean in one direction or another, but I like the possibilities of a complex global economy that is growing faster than anyone would have foreseen even a short time ago that actually "hedges" itself and limits any downturn if a portfolio is well allocated.

Best of luck to everyone!
 
Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Maintaining this position a little longer:

50% G
20% F
10% C
10% S
10% I


I feel very comfortable with this, and I can't move it anyway with the new TSP account numbers and I never got anything in the mail, yet. There is good data out there, bad data, unknowns in the banking sector and financials, and the housing situation leaves the possibility always in place for a horrific piece of data or multiple pieces of data within the sector to hit the market hard. I think that in the end the landing from the sector might be softer than thought, but it would be easy to be wrong. For now consumer spending looks strong, industrial production at least is NOT falling, the downturn in the dollar is stable, not eratic, which is good news. Big weeks ahead.
 
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