rcknfrewld's account talk

[rcknfrewld]

When the c fund is lower than g fund, will that be a good sign to buy. Or does the share price have no memory of where it has been.

 

[Cactus]

There aren't any relationships between the share prices of the individual funds. They are arbitrary. When the L50 Fund was established, for example, it was set at $10.00/share because you got to start somewhere. It goes up and down with the market after that. So don't compare the share price of one fund agains't another.

What you want to consider is stuff like: is this a good price entry, do you think it is going to go up from here, etc. You can look at the autotracker listing to see that a lot of us have gotten this wrong and are paying for it. You can get hurt out there so don't just invest on a whim. Follow what's happening in the market. Read what people here have to say. Come up with some kind of system, like the Sentiment Survey maybe, and keep your head about you. This has been a bad year for some of us and you don't want to join us there. Learn from our mistakes if nothing else.

 

[rcknfrewld]

I've gone through the archives of the wise guys here. I've looked up daily commentary on past critical days, which at the time seemed pivotal in the moment. I can't help but think in ten years time, all this daily market talk minutiae? will seem irrelevant. I've read the talk throughout the years where tspers gleefully lock in a 2 percent gain that day, or successfully dodge a 2 percent loss. I guess I'm struggling with the forest versus the trees analogy. This must be the inner struggle the bears and bulls go through on a daily basis. I guess it depends on your time horizon. Look at the Dow Jones from the time of it's inception. Maybe I've had too many blue moons or too much exposure to birch tree.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

...or too much exposure to birch tree.

hmmm...

Heed Cactus' warning... right now, it is ugly out there. You would be safer to stay in G if you are not sure of the risk you are taking by moving into C, S, or I...

Be careful and good luck !!

 

[tsptalk]

Welcome rcknfrewld. Here is a review of returns from the various services here going back to when we started them. Looking at the TSP stock fund returns vs. the return of some of the services, and you can see that your decisions have a huge impact on your return and ultimately your balance.

[TABLE="width: 120"] [TR] [TD="class: xl73, width: 81, bgcolor: navy"]4+ Years /

[TD="class: xl74, width: 78, bgcolor: navy"] 2007-2011
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Thru:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, width: 78, bgcolor: transparent"]10/4/11
[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"] Revshark:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]+5.65%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"] Trader Fred:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]+32.20%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"] Ebbchart:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]-6.08%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"] *Sentiment
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]+42.55%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]G Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]+17.52%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]F Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]+36.61%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]C Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]-12.07%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]S Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]-4.03%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]I Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]-25.24%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]L-INC:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: transparent"]+14.55%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]L2020:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: transparent"]+2.61%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]L2030:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: transparent"] -1.08%
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]L2040:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: transparent"] -4.71%
[/TD]

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Striken7]

Welcome rcknfrewld. Here is a review of returns from the various services here going back to when we started them. Looking at the TSP stock fund returns vs. the return of some of the services, and you can see that your decisions have a huge impact on your return and ultimately your balance...

Based on that info, the clear winner is never leaving the F Fund :cheesy:

(The sentiment survey scares me)

 

[Birchtree]

Fear is the greatest buy signal ever seen in the stock markets and we got plenty of that. Normally whenever the VXO surges to 50, it is time to buy aggressively as fear has peaked so a huge stock market rally is imminent. I'll capture some sweet wall flowers today.

 

[tsptalk]

Based on that info, the clear winner is never leaving the F Fund :cheesy:

(The sentiment survey scares me)

Speaking of sentiment, this is how a lot of people actually think. They chase the hot fund and run from the cold, when the opposite is probably a better approach.

In 2010, S was the best fund performing fund by far (+29%). F was +6.7%.

In 2011 S -15.3%. F +7.0%

In 2010 the sentiment survey was up 35%. It was "hot" and had tons of followers going into 2011.

In 2011 so far, -13.1%. Now who is following? (it "scares" people now. )

2012?

 

[rcknfrewld]

If the c,s,i fund was $1 per share tomorrow, who wouldn't buy. If those same c,s,i funds were $30 per share tomorrow who
would buy? You must be nimble in this market, but with only 2 ITs per month this is very trying. You need to know what the
masses are doing and head for the other direction. It reminds me of sports betting, fade the public. Everyone likes the Pats to
cover against the Bills, so you take the Bills. That will work on a week to week basis. But we are in a different scenario, where
we can't work on a week to week basis, only 2 IFs per month. I keep going back to...we have to go long...with the restrictions
we have. If not, we are gambling. Most of us are working all day...not day traders...no time to be nimble

 

[rcknfrewld]

Pondering dca every paycheck or biding my time on the lily pad waiting to pounce at the perfect entry point

 

[rcknfrewld]

Fear is the greatest buy signal ever seen in the stock markets and we got plenty of that. Normally whenever the VXO surges to 50, it is time to buy aggressively as fear has peaked so a huge stock market rally is imminent. I'll capture some sweet wall flowers today.

When does the contrarian play become the lame stream play. Or is that outsmarting the room.

 

[rcknfrewld]

This market has been languishing for the past 10 years now. Seems like the share prices can't go too much higher without being labeled as topping out once again. Market should go back down. But I say no, fade the public, roll on another 2000 pts. I don't think the market will behave, that's why it will misbehave.

 

[Birchtree]

"Strong week for stock market bulls."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article31242.html

 

[rcknfrewld]

Plugs Biden is right...I want more murders, more rapes, and all seniors to die. Wait...wait...I want them to die from poisoned dogfood fed by republicans, slowly, spoon fed to make them suffer. Then they can die.

 

[nnuut]

I prefer Cat Food if you don't mind?

 

[rcknfrewld]

Cat food...even better...none the wiser...(hands rubbing together...deviously)

 

[rcknfrewld]

That bandaged tongue flapping about is hilarious btw...

 

[nnuut]

That bandaged tongue flapping about is hilarious btw...

Yep I'm pretty much beat up it's the wear and tear and congestion that gets you in the end.

 

[rcknfrewld]

It's been awhile...how does the tongue comport itself in a favorable market

 

[rcknfrewld]

Tried beltway cannot post...read some posts there...see why no one goes there...enough said.