rangerray's Account Talk

[rangerray]

I have to go out and make money with my labor, so I'm making a decision now and am going to buy the dip at 50% S and 50% C. I'm using the Bollinger band in my decision making in that I've read that a datapoint will only fall outside of the band 5% of the time, so in my mind, the market is likely to move back up. I know this is elementary thinking, but so many times over the last several months the market has recovered from dips at the lower edge of the band. here's my charts:

 

[felinecrl]

I'm really not sure, but I will sit out on the side lines in the G fund to see if it starts to come up again. Thanks for sharing the information.

 

[rangerray]

It goes without saying that I'm not sure either. They say by the time one figures out a pattern, it's probably about to change. Will this be the change?

 

[mmk119]

RangerRay
I respectfully disagree. I think the worries of the US debt ceiling, FOMC, and U.S. budget are blips. Evergrande doesn't really concern me itself - but, post reverberations will. Evergrande owes deposit money to a lot (a lot) of customers worldwide. they've borrowed against overinflated prices of realestate that they don't actually own and are in debt to a large number of banks worldwide (althought their biggest debt is to China with its grossly overinflated currency). the results will cause people to re-evaluate soverein debt, the actual value of currencies, and of realestate. this on the eve of U.S. banks getting ready to put a number of realestate properties into foreclosure at the end of this year - so what is now showing on the profit side for banks will move to the debt side for banks. I think we will begin to feel the crunch at the end of this year or definitely beginning of next.

 

[rangerray]

RangerRay
I respectfully disagree. I think the worries of the US debt ceiling, FOMC, and U.S. budget are blips. Evergrande doesn't really concern me itself - but, post reverberations will. Evergrande owes deposit money to a lot (a lot) of customers worldwide. they've borrowed against overinflated prices of realestate that they don't actually own and are in debt to a large number of banks worldwide (althought their biggest debt is to China with its grossly overinflated currency). the results will cause people to re-evaluate soverein debt, the actual value of currencies, and of realestate. this on the eve of U.S. banks getting ready to put a number of realestate properties into foreclosure at the end of this year - so what is now showing on the profit side for banks will move to the debt side for banks. I think we will begin to feel the crunch at the end of this year or definitely beginning of next.

I'm thinking more in terms of the short term with my most recent comments.

 

[mmk119]

my apologies rangerray. we must've be saying the same thing a different way.

 

[rangerray]

my apologies rangerray. we must've be saying the same thing a different way.

No apology necessary. It's all quite confusing. I think in the long run we're definitely in for some trouble, so I'm just trying to look ahead in terms of days, not weeks or even months. In regards to charts, though, I do look backwards. My current strategy has me looking back even more often because I see this pattern that I mentioned with my last two charts. There seems to be some repetition until one day it just won't work.

I haven't looked at any news this morning, but I'm counting on the Fed to not say anything to spook the market today. I'm watching to see if this rebound turns into a rally and, if it does, I'll be watching to see if it reclaims the 50 DMA. If it looks like either C or S is going to stall at the 50 DMA, then I'll likely bail out to the G Fund.

 

[rangerray]

Today's one of those days where I would typically move some funds to safety on the back of my good fortune of the last couple of days, but I feel like there is still adequate momentum to just hold what I've got. If I would have moved today it would have been from 50%C/50%S to 25%C/25%S. I'll decide tomorrow if I want to follow through or just go completely to G Fund for the rest of the month. Today I am feeling greedy.

 

[flalaw97]

Right there with you. I think the uptrend, even if it tapers some, is still headed in the right direction through the weekend. The past few months, the rebound upwards after hitting the 100DMA has been pretty strong/sustained... Good luck!

 

[rangerray]

The market seems to have paused a little today and so am I. I'm moving half of my account to the G Fund and will let the rest ride (25% C & 25% S) until I see what Monday looks like. September has been a good month for me, so I'm going back to my conservative ways for now. Happy Friday!! :smile:

 

[rangerray]

I don’t have time this morning to give the market my attention and simply moving all to G Fund. I was 25% S and 25% C. Hopefully today doesn’t wipe out the gain I had for September.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

 

[rangerray]

Well, I couldn’t get logged in to the TSP because of some sort of up address/browser issue, so now I’m locked out of my account for an hour because I’ve tried to log in too many times. Sometimes this stuff is just waaaaaaay too secure!!!!

So, I’m still 25% c and 25% S.

Maybe dip buyers will save me this afternoon.

 

[Boghie]

Well, I couldn’t get logged in to the TSP because of some sort of up address/browser issue, so now I’m locked out of my account for an hour because I’ve tried to log in too many times. Sometimes this stuff is just waaaaaaay too secure!!!!

So, I’m still 25% c and 25% S.

Maybe dip buyers will save me this afternoon. ��

Today would have been a lousy day to make the trade anyway - unless you think we are in for a LONG downtrend. You would have just locked in fairly significant losses.

On the other hand, if you feel we are in for a big downturn than hanging in equities and trying to get that last 1% is a fools bet. If that is your thinking then bail. Personally, I am almost never (or never) 100% in G and/or F. The rebounds that occur after a correction are just too fast and too large early on to get back in. So, if I hang at 35%-50% in C/S/I then I soften the blows during the decline and get a nice chunk of the early bounce back. My current allocation went -17% peak to trough in 2008/2009. That is slow enough to allow backout trades in a market like that. I also really don't want to Buy and Hold to a -57%+ like I would have fully invested in the C/S/I - and, I really don't want to take a -16% hit over two days as I attempted to execute an IFT. Yowser, that was ugly in 2008 - and, I was only 60% invested in C/S/I at the time.

I think the market has been frothy for some time. Don't trust it.

 

[eastj]

Yikes!! Sorry to hear about that Ray. That is the absolute worst.

I'm in the same boat with 25C, 25S and made the decision to stay put. That was my original instinct, so I guess we'll see how it plays out. I don't expect miraculous dip buyers this afternoon - looks a bit too weak for that - but hoping for some recovery by Thursday.

Good luck to both of us!!!

Well, I couldn’t get logged in to the TSP because of some sort of up address/browser issue, so now I’m locked out of my account for an hour because I’ve tried to log in too many times. Sometimes this stuff is just waaaaaaay too secure!!!!

So, I’m still 25% c and 25% S.

Maybe dip buyers will save me this afternoon. 

 

[nasa1974]

Well, I couldn’t get logged in to the TSP because of some sort of up address/browser issue, so now I’m locked out of my account for an hour because I’ve tried to log in too many times. Sometimes this stuff is just waaaaaaay too secure!!!!

So, I’m still 25% c and 25% S.

Maybe dip buyers will save me this afternoon. 

Sorry. It's the worst when computers, etc. don't want to act right. Good luck. I'm still 100% "S" , double depends and a fresh pair of stick pants. I also took one of my wife's anti-nausea pills.

 

[mmk119]

nasa1974
LMAO. I too am looking for a fresh pair of sticky pants and depends. My luck someone is hording them!

all,
I'm 50/50 C & S. I was thinking this week would be more sideways. seems to me the news is all about the bad things that could happen and none of them are really happening one way or the other just yet. so, I've been hesitant to make any decision this week. Hoping I'm not wrong and also hoping the market moves up a bit more. Either way, I still don't see this as the big crash everyone has been predicting. so, if this gets bad - I fear the crash could be so much worse. anyway, its after noon - so, hanging on for the ride.

 

[rangerray]

Yikes!! Sorry to hear about that Ray. That is the absolute worst.

I'm in the same boat with 25C, 25S and made the decision to stay put. That was my original instinct, so I guess we'll see how it plays out. I don't expect miraculous dip buyers this afternoon - looks a bit too weak for that - but hoping for some recovery by Thursday.

Good luck to both of us!!!

Yea, it’s going to work out either way. Maybe tomorrow will look better.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

 

[ravensfan]

I feel your pain rangerray and took a pretty good shellacking myself because I processed my 2nd IFT for September last Friday. Nothing like starting a trade in the hole...;damnit

 

[LTJPFED]

Looking good on the tracker! Don't want to jinx it for you but your in the green as I'm sure you know. I didn't have the heart to pull the trigger a couple times this month to move out of G. So kudos to you and everyone else who has dabbled in moving some around. I feel like September is a close your eyes and pray type month lol. Although there are those experts, I'm not one of them, who seem to have a better handle on when to move in and out of things much better. I hope for all in that these last couple days stay green and finish strong. October around the corner so I'll be looking for entry points then I guess.

 

[retread]

nasa1974
Either way, I still don't see this as the big crash everyone has been predicting. so, if this gets bad - I fear the crash could be so much worse. anyway, its after noon - so, hanging on for the ride.

I assume the media is predicting a crash (I don't know since I don't watch cable TV) I've been learning that when everyone sees a big crash coming, it usually doesn't happen. They tend to come out of the blue and at the top when you think it's always going to go up. Not sure we're there yet. I do think the nature of the market has changed. There is less buy the dip frenzy like we saw all summer. The bounce is no longer V shaped. And now weeklies are starting to level off.