rangerray's Account Talk

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It's the channel I have in blue on the chart below. Unless it falls beneath that channel or challenges the 50 DMA with authority, I'm inclined to let it ride. But, consider I'm only 50% in the S Fund, so any gain in C Fund, where my other 50% is can serve to offset that.

Capture.jpg
 
Got it. Nice chart. And the NAAIM came in today almost the same - bullish so it looks like we may have more of the same. Slow, steady up. Yes please. Thanks for sharing and Good luck.
 
I'm holding at 50% S and 50% C through today and into Monday. This is sort of scary for me, but unlike most of the other times that I've been "all in" since the pandemic play has been in effect, it doesn't seem nearly as risky having my investment split between two or more funds. I have resisted my inclination to be in C Fund 100%, though that probably would have made more sense. Another point to ponder is that, for me, I've concentrated more in holding on to what I've got in the last couple of years rather than making plays for maximum gains. The latter has never really served me that well because I mostly don't know what I'm doing from one week to the next, but at least I'm paying attention to my account. I wish I had cultivated this desire much earlier in my career and perhaps I would be in the TSP millionaire club.
 
rangerray said:
I'm holding at 50% S and 50% C through today and into Monday. This is sort of scary for me, but unlike most of the other times that I've been "all in" since the pandemic play has been in effect, it doesn't seem nearly as risky having my investment split between two or more funds. I have resisted my inclination to be in C Fund 100%, though that probably would have made more sense. Another point to ponder is that, for me, I've concentrated more in holding on to what I've got in the last couple of years rather than making plays for maximum gains. The latter has never really served me that well because I mostly don't know what I'm doing from one week to the next, but at least I'm paying attention to my account. I wish I had cultivated this desire much earlier in my career and perhaps I would be in the TSP millionaire club.
Click to expand...

I wish I had paid closer attention to my TSP in the early days. Sat in the "G" fund for years. The awakening came late in my career. Hindsight be what it is, sure would have been nice to be in the "C" fund this month. The "S" fund has been a little whimpy so far.
 
rangerray said:
I'm holding at 50% S and 50% C through today and into Monday. This is sort of scary for me, but unlike most of the other times that I've been "all in" since the pandemic play has been in effect, it doesn't seem nearly as risky having my investment split between two or more funds. I have resisted my inclination to be in C Fund 100%, though that probably would have made more sense. Another point to ponder is that, for me, I've concentrated more in holding on to what I've got in the last couple of years rather than making plays for maximum gains. The latter has never really served me that well because I mostly don't know what I'm doing from one week to the next, but at least I'm paying attention to my account. I wish I had cultivated this desire much earlier in my career and perhaps I would be in the TSP millionaire club.
Click to expand...

C and S are highly correlated - that is not much of a diversification...

Then again, your other options are I - which is just crapolla. The F seems to be correcting. And, the G is being borrowed against by the Treasury to keep the Federal spending spree afloat. I'm tempted to move my G assets into F/S/S/I just to spite the Spending Muppets.
 
Boghie said:
C and S are highly correlated - that is not much of a diversification...

Then again, your other options are I - which is just crapolla. The F seems to be correcting. And, the G is being borrowed against by the Treasury to keep the Federal spending spree afloat. I'm tempted to move my G assets into F/S/S/I just to spite the Spending Muppets.
Click to expand...

For whatever reason the C & S Funds don’t often close with the same losses (or gains). At least that the way it’s worked out for the last several weeks, often with C Fund finishing much better. That’s what I’m looking at when I say diversify. I’m not really getting into the nuts and bolts of what the funds are invested in, but you made a good point. Thanks for that!

I might have reduced my exposure in the S Fund today, but I was busy and didn’t think about checking the charts until after the noon cutoff. I don’t like the way the news is starting off this week.


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rangerray said:
For whatever reason the C & S Funds don’t often close with the same losses (or gains). At least that the way it’s worked out for the last several weeks, often with C Fund finishing much better. That’s what I’m looking at when I say diversify. I’m not really getting into the nuts and bolts of what the funds are invested in, but you made a good point. Thanks for that!

I might have reduced my exposure in the S Fund today, but I was busy and didn’t think about checking the charts until after the noon cutoff. I don’t like the way the news is starting off this week.


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Click to expand...

Since 2001 when the "S" fund was started it has outperformed the "C" fund 234.15% to 181.46%.

View attachment TSP Yearly Average % copy.xlsx
 
Looking at my chart this morning, before the noon cutoff yesterday I would have been challenged to make a decision to get out of the S Fund or not. It could have gone either way at crunch time. According to my short-term plan to get out of S Fund at the first sign the 50 DMA is being challenged with some vigor, today I'd be sitting at 50% C Fund/50% G Fund.

I'll have to see what today brings. I hope it's a good one!!
 
I mentioned in another thread that I'm likely to sell my S fund today, but looking at that Bollinger band...don't I remember reading something that said that the level falls outside of the band about 5% of the time? Maybe I need to hold tight?
 
Decided you may be right...looks like a big move down coming this afternoon...I also noted my inverse fund it sure looking strong. I'm thinking that this may be a clue that the worse is yet to come today perhaps. In any case...probably not going to be on the dead ct bounce train very long tomorrow and may get trapped. Ugh...your inspiration may have some merit. Joined you in the insanity. :)
 
Money seems to be flowing out of equities and into bonds.
This is likely smart money. If the flow increases toward the end of the day than that is a sign of smart money migration...

Bonds suck, but the AGG has been slowly correcting for some time now and some of the correction has already taken place. I really don't want to hide in the G Fund. The G Fund is being raided by the U.S. Treasury right now and they are promising to make you whole. But there is a $3 Trillion hole in this years revenue/spending. Promises are kept till promises cannot be kept.
 
I'm flying by the seat of my pants right now, but I'm only down today about 1.09%. I'm not in panic mode after today. Maybe tomorrow? If there is a DCB, then that would be good enough for the month of August if you ask me. Before today, I was ahead for the month. :smile:
 
rangerray said:
I'm flying by the seat of my pants right now, but I'm only down today about 1.09%. I'm not in panic mode after today. Maybe tomorrow? If there is a DCB, then that would be good enough for the month of August if you ask me. Before today, I was ahead for the month. :smile:
Click to expand...

I'm seeing a little smile with the late money. If that holds than you holding steady was likely a good move.
 
I haven't had a lot of time to spend looking at charts and news today, but I'm watching and today doesn't look too bad right now. Who knows what the afternoon holds? Anyway, I'm holding what I have another day with 50% C and 50% S.
 
Well, I missed my opportunity to flee when I had planned, then was too stubborn to cut my losses and now I'm hesitant today to get out because there looks like there is at least a pause underway at or near the longer term channels that have developed over the last few months. They say that when you finally recognize a pattern, it's about to change. However, these long term channels on both the C & S Fund have been resilient. There has been bad news, rumors, scares, etc. for a many, many reasons, yet these channels have been faithful. (charts current as of a few minutes ago)

I'm holding tight another day at 50% C and 50% S

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