Quarter Talk

[JTH]

Using linear regressions drawn from the the peak to trough, we can estimate a trading range of 1216-920 this quarter.

View attachment 9640


In addition we are trading below our 1 year, 5 year, & 10 year moving average.

View attachment 9641

 

[poolman]

I like your charts JTH,

I use them and they are very clear and understandable.

Thanks Guy.

 

[JTH]

I like your charts JTH,

I use them and they are very clear and understandable.

Thanks Guy.

Thanks Poolman, and thank you for your video updates!


Here is the 1/3 Quarterly update, as we are 1 month into the third quarter.

Our current estimated range is 975-1160, We are just below the 1 year average and well below the 5 & 10 year average. Based on the intersection of the two regression lines at 1042, I'd call this a neutral market with a bullish bias.

View attachment 9802

 

[JTH]

We are trading below the 1, 5, & 10 year average, I'd call that bearish. The 2007 bearish median price is trading at 963, which is also a -23% Fibonacci projection from my most recent blog. The 2009 bullish median price is sitting at 1144.

The median price between 963 & 1144 is 1054, and I'd call this the overall median price of this market. Anything below it should be bearish while anything above it is bullish. Based on our current 1064 I'd call it neutral with a very slight bullish bias.


View attachment 9915

 

[JTH]

For the current view we have a Bull/Bear median price of 1068 and are trading <1 point below the 1 year moving average. For the 2007 market we are trading above median 975, but below 2009's median 1162. Currently I see prices as neutral with a bearish bias.

View attachment 9972

 

[JTH]

Last quarter of 2010 here we go! For the current view we have a Bull/Bear median price of 1103 and are trading above the yearly average. For the 2007 market we are trading above median 1013, but below 2009's median 1193. By all accounts median prices rose last quarter.

View attachment 10039
​