12/20/12
Stocks were slightly lower to even during most of the day's trading on Wednesday, but a late selloff saw the indices close at their lows of the day. The Dow lost 99-points and the indices are already testing support.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.75%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 lost 0.8% taking it back down to the breakout levels. This is what you want to see after a breakout, but it usually doesn't happen the next day. As long as the old resistance acts as support, and the inverted head and shoulders' neckline holds, we shouldn't see too much of a pullback - barring any negative news out of Washington.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There is a slight rising wedge forming but it is close to being parallel so it's not too much of a concern yet.
The Transportation Index actually closed higher again yesterday, but it was well off its highs and may have produced a negative reversal day. It needed a rest but the bulls won't want to see any support broken on a pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar opened much lower yesterday, but it rallied to fill the gap the weak open created. It's in a downtrend but there could be some support in the UUP near 21.59.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The holiday seasonality chart told us that yesterday, the trading day 4 days before Christmas, despite having a positive average return, is only positive about 42% of the time and we did see a negative close. Today, day -3, is up about 55% of the time.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
After Friday (day -2) the numbers become very hard to ignore with positive closings 60% to over 70% of the time. It's no guarantee of course, and the capital gains tax increase and fiscal cliff negotiations make this year a little different, but over the last 60+ years the odds favor being in stocks from the trading day before Christmas Day into the first few days of January.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were slightly lower to even during most of the day's trading on Wednesday, but a late selloff saw the indices close at their lows of the day. The Dow lost 99-points and the indices are already testing support.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.75%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 lost 0.8% taking it back down to the breakout levels. This is what you want to see after a breakout, but it usually doesn't happen the next day. As long as the old resistance acts as support, and the inverted head and shoulders' neckline holds, we shouldn't see too much of a pullback - barring any negative news out of Washington.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There is a slight rising wedge forming but it is close to being parallel so it's not too much of a concern yet.
The Transportation Index actually closed higher again yesterday, but it was well off its highs and may have produced a negative reversal day. It needed a rest but the bulls won't want to see any support broken on a pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar opened much lower yesterday, but it rallied to fill the gap the weak open created. It's in a downtrend but there could be some support in the UUP near 21.59.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The holiday seasonality chart told us that yesterday, the trading day 4 days before Christmas, despite having a positive average return, is only positive about 42% of the time and we did see a negative close. Today, day -3, is up about 55% of the time.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
After Friday (day -2) the numbers become very hard to ignore with positive closings 60% to over 70% of the time. It's no guarantee of course, and the capital gains tax increase and fiscal cliff negotiations make this year a little different, but over the last 60+ years the odds favor being in stocks from the trading day before Christmas Day into the first few days of January.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
