Producer Price Index (PPI)

[tsptalk]

Wholesale prices fell 0.1% in August amid inflation fears

The producer price index, a gauge of prices received at the wholesale level, declined 0.1%, in line with expectations.

On a year-over-year basis, the index, which is a gauge of wholesale prices, increased 8.7%, the lowest increase since August 2021.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/14/producer-price-index-august-2022.html

 

[tsptalk]

Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected as inflation persists

The producer price index increased 0.4% for September, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain.

Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index increased 0.4% for the month and 5.6% from a year ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/12/producer-price-index-september-2022.html

 

[tsptalk]

Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, less than expected, as inflation eases

The producer price index rose 0.2% in October, below the 0.4% estimate.

A significant contributor to the slowdown in wholesale inflation was a 0.1% decline in services, the first outright decline in that measure since November 2020.

On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 8% compared to an 8.4% increase in September.

In other economic news, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for November registered a reading of 4.5%, much better than the estimate for a -6% reading.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/who...er-less-than-expected-as-inflation-eases.html

 

[James48843]

This is good for the longer term.

Inflation is cooling: last 4 months: CPI: 2.8%, Core CPI: 5.3%, PPI: 0.06%, Core PPI: 2.5%

The title line are the last 4 months (October over June) AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE.

I know I know, you won't find this in the media anywhere. They are fundamentally incapable of reporting anything besides the one month change and the twelve month change. They are fundamentally incapable of understanding that maybe the first several months of a 12 month period are ancient history. And yes, they are fundamentally incapable of calculating inflation rates from the data.

CPI https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
Core CPI Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
PPI Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Core PPI Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

The Core CPI is the CPI less food and energy
The Core PPI is the PPI less food, energy, and trade services
CPI = Consumer Price Index,
PPI = Producer Price Index aka wholesale prices

I think the shock of higher fuel prices is working its way through the system and we will be fine.

Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[weatherweenie]

... we will be fine.

Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

Oddly, some are disappointed with the fact that we will be fine.

 

[tsptalk]

Define "fine."

I know there are people who see everything through the lens of politics, which is what I assume you are getting at, but I think the other side of getting inflation under control is the strong potential for recession next year. Don't forget about the inverted yield curve which hasn't gotten any better, and even if it does improve, unless Powell has some magic up his sleeve, history suggests a recession is still a high probability in 2023.

So "fine" may mean inflation is calming down, but there's more to it than that. Not that we can't have decent rallies in this environment but, at the risk of sounding like a perma-bear, I don't think things are fine just yet.

 

[tsptalk]

Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in November, more than expected, despite hopes that inflation is cooling

The producer price index, a measure of what companies get for their products in the pipeline, increased 0.3% for the month and 7.4% from a year ago.

A 38% surge in wholesale vegetable prices helped push the food index up by 3.3%, offsetting an identical 3.3% decline in energy costs.

Markets now will turn their attention to the more closely watched consumer price index, which is due out Tuesday morning.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/09/who...-despite-hopes-that-inflation-is-cooling.html

 

[tsptalk]

Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in December, much more than expected

The producer price index declined 0.5% for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.1% decrease.

A sharp drop in energy prices helped bring the headline inflation reading down for the month. The PPI’s final demand energy index plunged 7.9%.

Retail sales fell 1.1% in December, slightly more than the 1% forecast.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/who...cent-in-december-much-more-than-expected.html

 

[tsptalk]

Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in January, more than expected, fueling inflation increase

The producer price index rose 0.7% in January, higher than the 0.4% estimate.

Excluding food and energy, core PPI increased 0.5%, compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase.

In other economic data, jobless claims edged lower to 194,000, below the estimate for 200,000. Also, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index plunged to -24.3, well below the -7.8 estimate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/producer-price-index-january-2023-.html

 

[tsptalk]

Supplier Prices Fell in March, Adding to Signs of Moderating Inflation

Producer-price index declined 0.5% from prior month, largest drop since April 2020

 

[tsptalk]

Wholesale prices rose just 0.2% in April, less than estimate as inflation pressures ease

The producer price index, a measure of prices for final demand goods and services, increased 0.2%, against the Dow Jones estimate for 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, core PPI also rose 0.2%, in line with expectations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/11/who...han-estimate-as-inflation-pressures-ease.html

 

[tsptalk]

Producer prices fell 0.3% in May, more than expected

Wholesale prices fell even more than expected in May, providing another sign that inflation pressures are beginning to ease in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

Excluding food and energy, PPI rose 0.2%, in line with the estimate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

[tsptalk]

More good news on the inflation front.


June wholesale prices rise less than expected in another encouraging inflation report

The PPI for final demand rose 0.1%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting an increase of 0.2%. The PPI climbed 0.1% when excluding food, energy and trade services, which was in line with expectations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/13/ppi-june-2023-wholesale-prices-rise-less-than-expected.html

 

[tsptalk]

Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in July, higher than expected

The producer price index rose 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate.

On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI was up just 0.8%. Prices excluding food, energy and trader moved up by 2.7%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/11/who...int3percent-in-july-higher-than-expected.html

 

[tsptalk]

August wholesale inflation rises 0.7%, hotter than expected

Inflation at the wholesale level rose more than expected in August, countering recent data showing that price increases have tempered lately.

The producer price index, a measure of what producers get for their goods and services, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in August and 1.6% on a year-over-year basis. That monthly gain was above the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.4% increase.

However, excluding food and energy, core PPI increased 0.2%, in line with the estimate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/14/ppi-inflation-report-august-2023-.html

 

[tsptalk]

Wholesale inflation rose 0.5% in September, more than expected

The producer price index increased 0.5% for September, against the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% rise.

Excluding food and energy, core PPI was up 0.3%, versus the forecast for 0.2%.

Inflation pressures came primarily from final demand goods, which surged 0.9% on the month, while services increased 0.3%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/11/ppi-september2023-.html

 

[tsptalk]

Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in October for biggest monthly drop since April 2020

The producer price index declined 0.5% for the month, the biggest monthly decline since April 2020. Wall Street had been expecting a 0.1% increase.

The Commerce Department’s advance retail sales report for the month showed a decline of 0.1%. Wall Street had been looking for a decline of 0.2%.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which gauges conditions in the New York area, posted an unexpected increase of 14 points to 9.1.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/15/who...or-biggest-monthly-drop-since-april-2020.html

 

[tsptalk]

Wholesale prices held flat in November, providing another encouraging inflation signal

The producer price index, which measures a broad range of prices on final demand items, was unchanged for the month, following a 0.4% decrease in October but less than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.1% gain. On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI accelerated just 0.9%, after peaking above 11.5% in March 2022.

Wholesale prices held flat in November, providing another encouraging inflation signal

 

[tsptalk]

January wholesale prices rise more than expected, another sign of persistent inflation

The producer price index, a measure of prices received by producers of domestic goods and services, rose 0.3% for the month, the biggest move since August. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of just 0.1%. PPI fell 0.2% in December.

January wholesale prices rise more than expected, another sign of persistent inflation

 

[tsptalk]

Wholesale inflation rose 0.6% in February, much more than expected

The producer price index, which measures pipeline costs for raw, intermediate and finished goods, jumped 0.6% on the month, double the Dow Jones estimate.

On a year-over-year basis, the headline index increased 1.6%, the biggest move since September 2023.

Two-thirds of the rise in headline PPI came from a 1.2% surge in goods prices, the biggest increase since August 2023, thanks to a 4.4% jump in energy.

Retail sales increased 0.6%, less than expected, while weekly jobless claim filings nudged lower to 209,000.

Producer price index February 2024: Wholesale inflation rose 0.6% in February