Stocks were mixed after the abbreviated trading day on Friday, and it took a sharp late sell-off to move the Dow and S&P 500 into negative territory. As I mentioned in the Weekly Wrap Up, 3 of the 4 trading days last week saw late day sell-offs which, if it wasn't holiday trading, may be telling us something.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 163"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.0182%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Here are the final monthly and annual TSP fund returns through the end of November. Barring any kind of crash in December, it will be a big year for the stock funds in 2013. Not exactly news at this point.
After the typical light volume, positive, pre-holiday action, the S&P 500 (SPY) has squeezed every inch out of the recent rising wedge formation, but clearly it will have to break above or below it this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The longer-term chart of the S&P 500 shows an upside break from a larger wedge, and that breakout turned into the current short-term rising wedge. Is the market that strong that two typically bearish rising wedge formations can break to the upside? Is this the Fed's QE influence that has turned normal technical analysis on its head?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small cap Russell 2000 Index broke out recently and is in a very tight rising channel. It's a very good looking chart but will the pre-holiday positive bias be reversed after the holiday, which is sometimes the case? Perhaps a pullback and test of the breakout level (just under 112, in this case) would be healthy, provided the test of the old resistance holds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today is day +2 on the Thanksgiving Holiday chart, and it clearly has a strong negative bias.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar ETF (UUP) has been forming somewhat of a bull flag pattern and it has been hanging around the 50-day EMA for a couple of weeks. After breaking the downtrend in early November, the UUP has pulled back and the question is whether this is just another lower high in a larger downtrend, or has a new uptrend started (orange)?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Because it is part of the make-up of our economy and can sometimes be an indicator of the strength of the economy, let's take a quick look at the price of oil...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Clearly in a strong downtrend and as I mentioned a while back, could be moving down for a number of reasons. If the economy is weakening, the price of oil could be falling on a lack of demand. It might also fall if the U.S. production is picking up and increasing supply. It could also be that the chaos in the Middle East has calmed some with the Syrian crisis seemingly off the radar for now.
There is some strong support near $88, which may be the next downside target.
Bonds rolled over late last week but because of pre / post holiday reversals, that may not mean anything... yet. There is an open gap on the TLT that may look to get filled.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
In today's TSP Talk Plus Report we take a look at sentiment from a few perspectives including our survey results, plus we'll look at the number indicators at extreme levels right now. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
