Was that a turnaround Tuesday? The action has been so poor lately that it sure looked good, and the bulls will take any gains they can get at this point, but there has been a lot of technical damage done to the stock index charts and there are no certainties in this kind of environment.
The Dow did gain 118-points and reversed nicely off the lows. Oil was once again the catalyst as it fell sharply intraday, and actually dipped below $30 a barrel briefly before rebounding modestly. Stocks followed their lead almost to the tick but of course held up better as oil did close down 1.77%.
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The futures are up sharply as I write this, so that's a good sign, but early strength is common the day after a after a positive reversal day. It's the close that will matter.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) opened higher, then dropped sharply to the lows of the day before recovering and closing higher again. That makes for a positive reversal day, but notice the volume isn't exactly capitalization-like. But then again, we had a pretty decent reversal on just average volume back in October so I guess volume does not have to be extreme to put in a low, but it helps.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) gave us a nice positive kangaroo tail but it did not close near the highs, which would have been more preferable for an outside reversal day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index looked pretty solid yesterday gaining 0.92% and it is remaining above the descending support line. This could actually rally all the way up to the top of that channel, currently near 7300, and still be in a very bearish technical position, but that's what is nice about market timing. You can take whatever the market gives you and get out again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The price of oil was down yet again yesterday and continued to pull the stock market down with it, but yesterday it fell below $30 and caught some bids (buyers) and that helped push stocks higher.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) looks to be starting a bear flag but it is too early to say. The overseas markets have not reacted to yesterday's rally in U.S. stocks so we'll let that play out before calling a bear flag. Japan's Nikkei is up 2.3% as I write this Tuesday night. Some of those open gaps are surely going to get filled within a reasonable timeframe.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-Fund) was up but closed well off the highs as stocks rallied back. The parallel trading channel, which may be part of a large bear flag, remains intact.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The Dow did gain 118-points and reversed nicely off the lows. Oil was once again the catalyst as it fell sharply intraday, and actually dipped below $30 a barrel briefly before rebounding modestly. Stocks followed their lead almost to the tick but of course held up better as oil did close down 1.77%.
[TABLE="width: 89%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 180, align: center"]
[TD="width: 49, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
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The futures are up sharply as I write this, so that's a good sign, but early strength is common the day after a after a positive reversal day. It's the close that will matter.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) opened higher, then dropped sharply to the lows of the day before recovering and closing higher again. That makes for a positive reversal day, but notice the volume isn't exactly capitalization-like. But then again, we had a pretty decent reversal on just average volume back in October so I guess volume does not have to be extreme to put in a low, but it helps.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) gave us a nice positive kangaroo tail but it did not close near the highs, which would have been more preferable for an outside reversal day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index looked pretty solid yesterday gaining 0.92% and it is remaining above the descending support line. This could actually rally all the way up to the top of that channel, currently near 7300, and still be in a very bearish technical position, but that's what is nice about market timing. You can take whatever the market gives you and get out again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The price of oil was down yet again yesterday and continued to pull the stock market down with it, but yesterday it fell below $30 and caught some bids (buyers) and that helped push stocks higher.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) looks to be starting a bear flag but it is too early to say. The overseas markets have not reacted to yesterday's rally in U.S. stocks so we'll let that play out before calling a bear flag. Japan's Nikkei is up 2.3% as I write this Tuesday night. Some of those open gaps are surely going to get filled within a reasonable timeframe.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-Fund) was up but closed well off the highs as stocks rallied back. The parallel trading channel, which may be part of a large bear flag, remains intact.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
