08/07/13
Stocks declined yesterday although most indices closed well off their morning lows. The Dow lost 93-points, but had been down 140-points earlier. This is the longest stretch for the Dow, to go without a 100-point loss since March of 2012.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0057%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.57%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -1.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
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The I-fund held onto modest gains while the S-fund took the biggest hit.
The S&P 500 fell out of another rising wedge, and the next logical support levels would be the 20-day EMA or the prior low before the breakout. The S&P would have to get back over 1700 or the recent breakout may be considered a failure.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leading Dow Transportation Index has pulled back sharply after it's big August 1st rally, but there is rising support touching the 20-day EMA so we'll have to see if the bears have the fortitude to keep selling here, or if it's just another opportunity for the bulls to do some buying.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We're seeing many of the indicators rolling over here, although the PMO indicator has not issued a crossover sell signal yet. The breadth and volume oscillators have made short-term crossovers below the prior peaks, so there may be a little more to worry about here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The ARMS Index had moved above the 0.90 line and has now moved back below it. I marked prior times we saw this over the last year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There does seem to be a tendency for that to mark the start of sideways at best action, and in a couple of instances, a peak that led to a multi-week pullback.
Let's see what the bulls have left after the blazing summer for stocks.
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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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